Eight Barriers To A 49ers Championship, Part 1
Some predict the 49ers will break through this year and win a title after making it to the NFLs’ Final Four in three of the past four years. I don’t think it’s as simple as being in the mix annually and hoping it’s your turn with some luck. I have eight assumptions they need to break, eight barriers to a title. They cleared two last year, six to go.
The two barriers they’ve cleared:
1. Create turnovers
The wrong assumption: A great pass rush is all that’s needed to generate turnovers (2017-2021).
The change: Add ball skills to the secondary (2022).
The result: The Niners go from tied with the Jets for the fewest interceptions in the league from 2017-2021 to the league leader in 2022 including two pick-sixes. They also led the league in turnover differential at +13.
Moral of the story: Small but critically important changes are achievable and can have massive results. The team needs to search for more assumptions in their thinking that they can convert into opportunities.
2. Offensive efficiency through the running back
The wrong assumption: A mid-level running back who’s a dual threat in the passing and running game can take the offense to the desired level of efficiency and scoring production. The back can act as a guardrail for the offense to keep it on track.
The change: Only an elite running back can do that consistently. They trade the 2023 draft for Christian McCaffrey.
The result: Huge gains in offensive efficiency in the regular season, scoring 33 points per game as a result of McCaffrey, an offense in rhythm, and Brock Purdy.
Moral of the story: You get what you pay for. You pay a price for taking all those draft swings and missing. CMC was expensive but worth it. The new rule going forward, the primary back must be elite.
The six barriers that remain:
3. Protecting the quarterback
The wrong assumption: That you can go cheap on the right side of the line, draft for run blocking, and still protect the quarterback against the best defensive lines in the league.
In the playoffs, Dallas had a 48.5 percent pressure rate on dropbacks, Philadelphia 61.9 percent. Until they can do a much better job of protecting the quarterback in playoff games, the Niners will go ringless. Even Patrick Mahomes lost a Super Bowl when he didn’t have a line.
“But the Niners had a top 10 line and were 6th in sacks against,” people might say. That's a fallacy to project the regular season into the playoffs. That’s happened frequently this offseason, lot of sweeping dirt under rugs and dismissing the NFC Championship due to the Purdy injury. They were dominated on both lines and would have lost regardless.
It’s not about the first 19 games, it’s about the last two. That’s where the focus has to be, where change has to happen, when titles are won.
The change: Colton McKivitz, a bulked-up Spencer Burford, and signing Jon Feliciano.
The result: We’ll see. Continuity for four of the five linemen will help improve the pass protection this year.
Moral of the story: Once again you get what you pay for. The Niners are locked in by their cap strategy. They passed on tackle in this year’s draft, I believe with good reason. They weren’t sold on the talent, that talent did not play right tackle recently, and they knew a solution was coming in the 2024 Draft.
Several tackles projected in the first and early 2nd round of next year’s draft played at right tackle in 2022, led by J.C. Latham of Alabama, Kingsley Suamataia of BYU, and Blake Fisher of Notre Dame. Fisher will play right tackle again this year.
4. A quarterback who can make a defense pay for playing Cover 1.
The wrong assumption: That the Niners only need a Pentium processor at quarterback, a chip that Kyle Shanahan can plug into his system and score 33 points per game. That works in the regular season, but not necessarily in the playoffs.
The change: Brock Purdy’s second year, Trey Lance’s improved mechanics.
The result: TBD.
Moral of the story: Fans debate which quarterback and if the Niners need an elite quarterback to win a ring. Cover 1 is The Test. Defensive coordinators are banking that Purdy can’t beat it by going over the top. Pete Carroll played Cover 1 Robber and Purdy struggled against it in the first half. Dan Quinn copied it and Dallas held the Niners to 19 points.
If the Niners quarterback forces a defense into a two-deep shell (2-man, Cover 2, Cover 4, etc), the running game can dominate, and they have a much better chance of winning. Failing that, it seems to be in the mix but ringless – on loop.
One thing Purdy needs is a healthy offseason to develop, with luck he gets that next year. Spoiler alert, some of these barriers are lining up to be cleared in 2024.
Stay tuned for the four remaining barriers in Part 2.
