Who is the Likeliest to be Traded Between Jimmy Garoppolo and Deebo Samuel?
Swing and a miss!
That is the best way to describe the 49ers' attempt to trade Jimmy Garoppolo this offseason.
It definitely hasn't gone the way that they planned it. Clearly, their valuation of Garoppolo vastly exceeds what the rest of the league thinks. For their own sake, they better hope that their valuation of Deebo Samuel is on point as he is surely going to demand a pretty penny from the 49ers. Coming off an All Pro season along with the wide receiver market booming, it is Samuel's time to cash out.
However, the 49ers could see things differently through their own valuation much like they did with Garoppolo. They could be reluctant to pay Samuel, thus get to a point where the two sides are completely on two different planets when it comes to an agreement. And should it reach that far, Samuel could demand a trade. The 49ers would have two players with trade implications on their hands.
So who is the likeliest to be traded between Garoppolo and Samuel?
Without question -- Samuel.
It is not that I believe Samuel will be traded, but more contingent on the fact that Garoppolo being traded is delusional. He has no market at all. Even once his shoulder becomes healthy by training camp, it makes no sense to believe his market will resurge. If a team really wanted Garoppolo, then wouldn't they trade for him to at least give him ample time to study and learn the playbook?
That way he doesn't need to hit the ground running. The difficulty is already going to be there for him to grow chemistry with his teammates alone. Giving him another challenge with setting his feet in the playbook is not doing Garoppolo nor the team any favors. Unless a starting quarterback sustains an injury in training camp or before, which is a slim chance, I see no way how his market finds life. Garoppolo is most likely going to be cut or remain on the team.
This is where Samuel being the likeliest to get traded comes in. He could remain steadfast on wanting a high sum of guarantees like his fellow peers received. I believe he would aim for close to $70 million guaranteed, which would be vastly higher than any guaranteed money the 49ers have ever handed out. The 49ers want to extend Samuel, but only at their value. They won't splurge on him just because they can. Perhaps if Samuel had more than one phenomenal season, then maybe they would have zero issue giving him the brinks truck.
Negotiations between Samuel and the 49ers are going to be immensely tricky -- trickier than any negotiations the 49ers have conducted under Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch. Extending George Kittle and Fred Warner is going to feel like cakewalks compared to Samuel. This likely could get messy and snowball into a situation that damages the relationship between the two sides, which could lead to a trade. If a trade emerges, Samuel will get traded before the regular season, as opposed to Garoppolo, whom the 49ers easily could still hang onto with hopes of an in-season trade.
Samuel has significantly more value than Garoppolo, anyway. Suitors for Samuel versus Garoppolo wouldn't even be comparable if Garoppolo were healthy. That is essentially where it dwindles down to as to why Samuel is the likeliest over Garoppolo.
