Applying the Brakes to Mitchell Trubisky Contract Talk

The celebrations continue over Mitchell Trubisky's second or third big career step forward, as the Bears hang on to hope the Arizona Cardinals can lose and they can avoid a loss to Jacksonville before somehow beating Green Bay.

What then?

A road playoff game follows, most likely a loss, and then a future with a mess at quarterback.

Someone needs to hang a caution sign somewhere near Halas Hall because this Mitchell Trubisky transformation is not quite what it seems. The interception in the end zone Sunday alone should indicate this.

At least, any improvement is insufficient as a base for the franchise's future. They need to treat Trubisky as a temporary patch to be disposed of postseason while the wound is dressed more permanently in the future.

Here's why: This belief the Bears have turned it around on offense and will move forward behind Trubisky is based on a myth.

It's all the result of finally letting the running game work using more outside zone blocking, and then the nakeds and bootleg passes by Trubisky also working.

The bootlegs and nakeds put the passer in the open and make it easier to see the secondary and developing pass routes. Trubisky also only needs to survey half the field in most cases.

"You see when he has to throw the ball 21 times and we’re able to run the ball with running back for 32 attempts, it makes offense a lot easier and it’s effective," coach Matt Nagy said.

What happens when the run doesn't work? And have they really solved their running game problems, anyway?

If they don't have the running game, the boots and nakeds do not work. The entire house of cards tumbles because Trubisky has already proven his limitations throwing and reading the field from the pocket.

The reason the Bears have run the ball effectively to set up the Trubisky-friendly passing game is not because their blockers have become incredibly better. It has nothing to do with David Montgomery, because he's a good back regardless.

It's simply because the opposition they've faced could do nothing to stop the run.

Put them against even a mediocre defensive front and the Bears' running attack crumbles along with Trubisky.

They beat Minnesota, which was 22nd on defense at the time. They were 25th against the pass and 19th against the run. They beat Detroit, which was 29th on defense, 26th at the time against the pass and 28th stopping the run. And they torched Houston, which was 30th on defense then, 21st against the pass and 31st against the run.

Running and passing against Mo, Larry and Curly might have been tougher than that trio. The Vikings at least had a clue, but not the personnel up front to be a problem.

Oh, and don't forget the Packers game.

Nagy claims they found something in the blowout loss to Green Bay to help start this turnaround. The Packers were 14th against the pass and 13th against the run at the time, which is legitimate defense.

The Bears had 57 yards on their first play, a Montgomery run, then gained 152 yards in the fourth quarter after they already had fallen behind 41-10. Of course, they gained yards then because the Packers were trying to keep from yawning.

The entire "turnaround" of Mitchell Trubisky is built on the fallacy that they are now a much better running team, and they're playing to Trubisky's strength as a result.

Unfortunately for the Bears, they won't know for certain their running game is legitimate until and if they make the playoffs.

They better not be tested this week by Jacksonville, which has the worst defense in the NFL. They're 31st against the run and 28th against the pass.

In the regular-season finale, it's possible Green Bay plays them tougher but at this point it would look like the Packers will have nothing to gain except injured players by playing starters against the Bears. If something changes in this respect, the Bears running game could get tested.

In the playoffs, there are no dodges. Good, even average defenses, can stop the outside zone run and force Trubisky to throw in the pocket. The result then is predictable. We've seen it for almost four seasons.

"What we've gotta do now is make sure that we don't get stale with it and we always try to stay one step ahead of these defenses, because you start having tendencies in what you do," Nagy said, which sounds rather dubious, considering Trubisky's past at executing anything beyond the current basics.

Going into the offseason, a team could get any number of quarterbacks who can do what Trubisky is doing right now with this offense as constituted. They don't need to sign him again to keep running this style of offense, if that's indeed something they decided is the right course.

If Dak Prescott became a bona fide free agent and not a tagged player, he could do it far better. Cam Newton could probably do it better and he'll be a free agent—again.

Any quarterback with some quickness and can read half the field can do this if the running game really is better.

Matt Nagy’s favorite, Alex Smith, can be cut after this season by Washington at a cap savings—$14.7 million before June 1 and $19 million afterward according to Overthecap.com—so he could be available. Even at his age and after his surgeries, Smith has the quickness to operate on the edge in this offense, but also knows how to run the offense from the pocket.

Several potential rookies might have the skill set to operate the offense as effectively, and with experience could even do it better. Trey Lance from North Dakota State and especially BYU's Zach Wilson come to mind.

The only way the Bears can go into next year pursuing Trubisky for a new contract is if both he and the running game proves their breakthroughs against either a playoff opponent, or if the Packers wind up needing that final game.

Then we'll have some sort of real evidence the next level has been attained.

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