Bengals at Ravens: Three Keys and a Prediction For Sunday's Matchup
CINCINNATI — The Bengals are the biggest underdog in the NFL this week. The Ravens are favored by 13-points in Sunday's matchup.
"We really don’t talk about that [being underdogs] in the building," rookie quarterback Joe Burrow said. "We’re confident in our abilities. We’re confident we can go out and execute the game plan. Compete within the game. So I know a lot of our guys are excited to play this week."
The Bengals have the talent to compete with the Ravens. Here are three keys to the game and a prediction for Sunday's matchup.
Game Script
The Bengals were balanced on offense last week against the Jaguars. Burrow had 36 pass attempts and they ran the ball 34 times. Cincinnati never trailed by more than seven points. They took an early lead and controlled the game for most of the second half.
That'll much easier said than done against this Ravens team, but it is crucial to their success on Sunday.
Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are built to play with a lead. They have three quality running backs, a great tight end and a couple of speedy wide receivers.
The Bengals need to get off to a quick start and establish the run. That balance will help Burrow and a below-average offensive line.
"We’ve gotten stuck a couple of times over the last handful of games, last year included, of getting down and having to throw it," offensive coordinator Brian Callahan said on Monday. "If you can play in a tight game and have balance, that’s obviously what you strive for ... You always want balance. Yesterday it worked out in our favor in that regard as far as making sure we had enough runs and passes mixed together."
The Ravens are one of seven NFL teams that are holding their opponents under 100 rushing yards-per-game. They might not be as successful as they were on the ground last week, but they need to stick with Joe Mixon if they're going to keep the reigning MVP off the field, which is the only true way to defend Jackson.
Getting Mixon involved in the short-passing game is another option if the Ravens contain the Bengals' rushing attack.
Make Lamar Throw Outside the Hash Marks
Speaking of Jackson, this defense is going to face its' toughest test of the season thus far. The Ravens' rushing attack is the best in the NFL.
Jackson's ability to stop, start and make people miss is second to none.
This will a good barometer for Lou Anarumo's group. Geno Atkins is set to make his 2020 season debut. The Bengals are going to have most of the guys that they envisioned having for a matchup like this when they built this defense in the offseason.
If DJ Reader, Atkins and the rest of the defensive line can win in the trenches, then it'll limit the Ravens' ability to run the ball. Baltimore's rushing attack and play-action fakes and the read option fuel their offense.
If they can keep Jackson in the pocket and limit tight end Mark Andrews, who will cut across the middle of the field early and often on Sunday, then they have a chance to slow down this group.
They need to force Jackson to throw to the boundary. Make him throw outside the numbers. He's missed Marquise Brown on a few deep shots so far this season.
“I see it as a work in progress. I’m getting better every week—not just myself, but my team," Jackson said when asked about his deep ball. "And no, I’m not happy, because those passes; I would like to connect with my guys on those passes. I feel like it’s a lot of yards and touchdowns we’ve been leaving on the field when we don’t connect."
The Bengals can't let Jackson, Mark Ingram or someone else run all over them. It's much easier said than done, but it's a requirement when going up against the Ravens. They can't let Jackson off the hook by giving him easy throws in the middle of the field.
Force him to throw to the boundary. The Bengals aren't going to take everything away. If they can slow down this rushing attack and force Jackson to throw outside the numbers, then they can live with the results.
Big Plays
The Bengals' offense has done a good job of taking what the defense has given them. Burrow's patience and ability to read an opponent has helped them avoid big mistakes.
The Bengals have only turned the ball over four times this season. Nineteen teams have turned the ball over five or more times. That's a credit to Burrow's patience. He isn't forcing the ball into bad spots.
“We’ve been very successful the last two or three weeks. I’m taking those short completions, getting eight yards and going second-and-2, second-and-6, second-and-5, just staying on track," Burrow said. "You don’t want to get in second-and-12 and then gets teams get to their third-down defenses. We’ve stayed on track very successfully the last couple of weeks.”
The Bengals have to be patient and game script is vital in Sunday's matchup, but they also have to hit on a big play or two if they're going to upset the Ravens.
This offense isn't going to be able to nickel and dime its' way downfield time and time and time again against Marcus Peters, Marlon Humphrey and the rest of this Baltimore defense.
They're going to need to hit on a few big plays.
The Bengals had multiple 20+ yard runs last week against the Jaguars. That would be huge for them, but it's unrealistic to expect that against Baltimore.
Burrow connecting with A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd or any of his other weapons could make all the difference—especially if they get off script and are playing from behind.
All-Time Record
The Ravens lead the series 25-23. Baltimore has won three-straight over Cincinnati.
The home team generally wins this matchup. The Ravens are 16-8 at home in this series. The Bengals have a 15-9 home record against their AFC North foe.
Baltimore swept Cincinnati last season for the first time since 2011. Fourteen of the last 19 matchups in this series have been decided by eight points or less.
Prediction: The Bengals are going to cover the spread for a fifth-straight week. Burrow will keep them in the game, but the end result will never be in doubt.
Jackson is frightening. His ability is unique and this defense, even with Atkins, probably isn't ready to handle what it's going to have to deal with on Sunday. The defense could have a good game and still give up 30+ points.
The Bengals have too many flaws to upset Baltimore, but they'll keep it close-ish at M&T Bank Stadium.
Final Score: Ravens 34, Bengals 23
For more on the Bengals, including the latest NFL news, go here!
