The Great Running Back Debate and the Buffalo Bills
Drafting a running back in the first round is against the religion of many football experts and fans, including those of the Buffalo Bills. The debate has only grown louder and more complicated as the NFL continues to throw more and more — and run less and less.
There is little to be gained by most teams who draft running backs early. They have typically short careers because they're always injured. There are dozens of very good ones coming out of college every year who can do the job almost as well as the elite ones. It's been proven for decades that you don't need elite running backs to win championships.
In fact, in recent years running backs drafted in the first round rarely have a positive effect on their team's win totals, which often go in the wrong direction after those choices.
You can look it up.
Over the previous 10 years, 15 running backs have been drafted in the first round. Only two, Sony Michel and Leonard Fournette, have won the Super Bowl, and Fournette didn't do it with the team that drafted him.
In most cases, the teams drafting first-round running backs either fail or don't do any better than they did before.
One of the best first-round picks during this span is Todd Gurley, who was plucked by the Rams in 2015, when they were still in St. Louis. They would reach the Super Bowl with him in 2018 and fall to Michel and New England. But Gurley's career lasted just six years, so he was out of football by the time they finally returned to the Super Bowl and won it last February, ironically with Michel as their top back.
But the success stories of Michel and Fournette are the outliers.
Melvin Gordon, drafted by the Chargers in 2015, has had a strong career but has played in just two playoff games, the last coming in the 2018 season. He has since moved on to the Denver Broncos.
Zeke Elliott of the Cowboys is arguably the finest back drafted in the first round in the last 10 years. He already has nearly 7,400 yards in just six seasons. He has experienced just one playoff victory, however.
Trent Richardson and David Wilson were flat-out busts.
Najee Harris gained 1,200 yards for the Steelers as a rookie last year, but needed 307 carries to do it. He also caught 74 passes, bringing his touch count to a staggering 381, most in the league.
That kind of use/abuse doesn't bode well for a long career.
We say that because we see what happened with Carolina's Christian McCaffrey, who came into the league as a dynamic force. But he was limited by injuries to seven games last season and three the year before. What's more, the Panthers have gotten progressively worse each year since he entered the league.
Perhaps not coincidentally, McCaffrey's injury problems began the season after he led the league with 403 touches in 2019.
Similarly, Saquon Barkley led the league with 2,028 yards from scrimmage on 352 touches as a rookie but hasn't been the same since. Last season, he averaged 3.7 yards per carry. The year before, 1.8, though the sample size was limited to 19 carries by a season-ending knee injury.
Simply put, there aren't many good reasons to use first-round picks on running backs, no matter how talented or accomplished they are.
That said, the Buffalo Bills are in a position with their loaded roster to perhaps afford that luxury.
Picking where they are at No. 25 overall, it's possible that the only player with a first-round grade remaining on the board will be a running back. Iowa State's Breece Hall, to be precise.
Because the Bills are built to win now, it would not be foolish whatsoever to consider Hall right there.
Absolutely not, according to NFL Network's Daniel Jeremiah.
"Breece Hall, the running back from Iowa State, to me is by far — [he] would be the best running back on their roster if he were to go there," Jeremiah said. "I think you've got an offense that's going to go out and get a bunch of leads with how explosive they are. I think getting somebody that can finish the game, I think Breece Hall gives you that ability."
Jeremiah isn't the only expert to link Hall to the Bills.
NBC Sports' Chris Simms recently had this to say about that potential draft pairing.
"It’s not totally off the rails here to go with this guy for what they are as a team,” he said. "They’re going to throw the ball, throw the ball, throw the ball. ... Here’s a draw play to Breece Hall, your safeties are 30 yards deep and now you’re going to have to tackle Breece Hall 30 yards down the field and he's got three rockets up his ass. I could see them going that route.
"Oh, you’re down the field worried about Josh Allen throwing lasers ... here's a dump-off screen to Breece Hall. Uh oh, watch out. He’s got 40 yards of free space to run around and get going here."
Drafting a running back like Hall in the first round would be foolish for most teams.
But the Bills aren't most teams. If Hall is still on the board for them at 25, he just might make the most sense, especially with the contracts of their top twp backs, Devin Singletary and Duke Johnson, set to expire after the 2022 season.
Stay tuned.
First-round running backs since 2012
2012
Trent Richardson, Cleveland Browns
Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Bucs
David Wilson, New York Giants
2013
None
2014
None
2015
Todd Gurley, St. Louis Rams
Melvin Gordon, San Diego Chargers
2016
Zeke Elliott, Dallas Cowboys
2017
Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville Jaguars
Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers
2018
Saquon Barkley, New York Giants
Rashaad Penny, Seattle Seahawks
Sony Michel, New England Patriots
2019
Josh Jacobs, Oakland Raiders
2020
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City Chiefs
2021
Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers
Travis Etienne, Jacksonville Jaguars
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Nick Fierro is the publisher of Bills Central. Check out the latest Bills news at www.si.com/nfl/bills and follow Fierro on Twitter at @NickFierro. Email to Nicky300@aol.com.
