4 Biggest Problems Holding Broncos Offense Back

Are the issues plaguing the Denver Broncos fixable?

With mile-high expectations comes mile-high criticism when there's a failure to meet them. Here lately, the criticism aimed at the Denver Broncos is higher than Mount Everest. 

With shaky offensive performances, at best, through the first five weeks of the season, questions about the viability of this young, new coaching staff have been raised at a meteoric rate — to little surprise. 

Week 1 of the season showed one of the worst coaching decisions we've ever seen as first-year head coach Nathaniel Hackett opted to kick a 64-yard field goal to try to take the lead over the Seattle Seahawks rather than try to convert a fourth down with franchise quarterback Russell Wilson.

And that's just the beginning. There have been multiple times where the sequencing of the play calling has been dreadful, and a handful of situational play calls have gone away from logic.

But is coaching the biggest thing holding back this Broncos offense? Or do we need to focus more on player execution to find the true answer?

There are many possibilities, including the simple answer of this team needing more time to gel and work out the kinks of its new scheme and quarterback.

Today, we're going to dive into some numbers and analytics to see whether player performance, in general, is a bigger issue than the coaching decisions made by Hackett to date. 

Russell Wilson's Struggles

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A rather large part of the high expectations for the Broncos is undoubtedly the addition of Wilson as the team's signal-caller. Anytime a top-10 player at the league's most important position is acquired, it should boost expectations and provide an immediate impact to change the direction of the franchise.

But that hasn't been the case, and Wilson's struggles have been widely criticized across the league.

In fairness, Wilson has been dealing with micro-tears in his latissimus dorsi in his throwing shoulder. This injury led him to receive a platelet-rich plasma injection following Week 5's disappointing loss.

However, there are other issues at hand with Wilson's performance that don't have anything to do with that, including misreading the defense and locking in on receivers pre-snap like we saw on the last play of the Indianapolis Colts game. That's just one example, but there have been several times Wilson has missed open receivers throughout the season.

More on that later.

Part of what makes Wilson so great as a passer is his ability to use his legs to create plays down the field, particularly coming off of play-action. When people describe Wilson's play style, they typically recall the hundreds of times he's escaped pressure and fired a moon-shot deep ball down the field.

In 2022, those plays have been few and far between. And even when Wilson does uncork a deep shot, things haven't gone according to plan.

According to Pro Football Focus, Wilson has only completed 52.2% of his passes coming off of play-action, which ranks 28th out of 30 quarterbacks with at least 120 pass attempts. He also ranks 12th out of 23 passers with at least 15 attempts throwing the ball 20-plus down the field, completing 34.5% of such passes.

Those numbers are a drastic drop-off of his production on such plays over the last three seasons, where Wilson completed at least 70% of his passes on play-action and 38% of passes over 20 yards in all of them.

Making matters worse is his drop-off in performance when under pressure, despite not being under pressure nearly as often as Wilson was in Seattle over the past three years. In fact, despite being pressured on 30.6% of his dropbacks this season, this is the lowest pressure rate he has faced in his entire career.

However, Wilson is only completing 46.3% of his passes when pressured and only 50% of his passes when being blitzed.

Obviously, playing under pressure is incredibly difficult. But that is something high-level quarterbacks are able to overcome to make play, especially when being blitzed. Identifying the pressure scheme coming and hitting the hot route is a staple of elite quarterback play, and Wilson simply isn't getting that done.

There's a lot more to look into than just these specific analytics, including the number of quick passing concepts being called by Hackett, the lack of designed rollout and moving pockets being called, how many open receivers have not been targeted, or the errant throws Wilson has made that have killed drives and scoring opportunities.

Regardless, Wilson simply has to start playing better and closer to the level he showed before his hand injury last season. And that needs to happen sooner rather than later. 

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Pre-Snap Penalties

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This is a fascinating discussion because it overlaps with the poor coaching we saw from this team earlier this season.

It's little shock to discover that the Broncos are tied for the most penalties (44) in the league this season, according to nflpenalties.com. After all, Denver committed 25 total accepted penalties over the first two games of the season, setting a franchise record in that category.

What was more shocking to unveil is the fact that the Broncos have committed 20 total pre-snap violations over their first five games, including four delay of game penalties and a league-leading 11 false starts. There have also been a handful of illegal formation and illegal shift penalties to round things out.

Where the more interesting part of this conversation comes into play is the delay of game penalties that were averted early in the season by Hackett using a time-out to get the team on the same page, pointing to a significant coaching issue of getting the play call in on time. There's also the fact that the team couldn't get lined up correctly to begin with, which needs to be addressed.

This is a failure in both aspects of coaching and execution by the players.

Knowing the snap count and getting lined up correctly is the first part of offensive success because if you can't get the play off on time, you can't be successful. Period.

Where things get even more concerning is continuously changing the snap count while this team is still trying to grasp and understand the playbook fully. That's on player execution, communication within the huddle, and knowing your responsibility.

We are five weeks into the season. This has to be cleared up immediately. 

Players Not Making Plays

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Part of executing on offense is simply the players going out there and making plays when given the opportunity to do so. It's pretty much a cut-and-dry statement.

This isn't to blame guys for not making spectacular plays, like one-handed catches or toe-tapping on a difficult completion, although there are a couple of examples of those that we can dissect at a later time. It's to point out the critical mistakes that professional players should have avoided.

The Broncos have the third-most dropped passes on the season (10) per NBC Sports and have an alarmingly high rate of fumbles (1.4 per game), including several of those miscues drastically altering the game.

A pair of fumbles inside the 1-yard line, a pair of red-zone interceptions, and several other plays have halted this Broncos scoring offense through five games. Missing open receivers with bad reads and poor throws, allowing free rushers along the interior offensive line for sacks, and not making plays on third downs have killed several drives so far this year, including seeing nine total three-and-out drives and 10 total punts against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 3.

The Broncos' offensive line, despite grading out as the ninth-best unit according to Football Outsiders' DVOA, has had some critical gaffes in pass protection when faced with blitzes and stunts from the opposing defensive line, especially along the interior.

Simply put, you need your players to go make plays when called upon.

You do need that back-shoulder pass completion to hit. You need that blitz pickup by the running back on third down. You need that toe-tap completion for a touchdown.

But you also need to perform the basics of playing the game of football, and right now, the Broncos aren't doing that on a consistent basis. That is on the players on the field. 

How it Gets Fixed

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There isn't a simple answer here. While I believe the coaching staff — outside of a handful of critical decisions — has done a nice job of putting the players in a position to succeed, there are obviously some changes in their approach that need to happen immediately.

The Broncos have already addressed game management decisions by adding Jerry Rosburg into the fold, but there are still some questionable play calls that need to be addressed, particularly in the red zone.

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Regardless of that, the Broncos' players have to execute, starting with the quarterback. Despite being in a new offense with new weapons and a higher emphasis on the quick passing game, Wilson has to elevate his level of play immediately.

The means to this offense becoming a legitimate threat are visible when breaking down the tape and when diving through the analytics.

According to ESPN's Next Gen Stats, both Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy are averaging over three yards of separation per route run, showing that the play designs have been getting players open at will. The Broncos are also averaging over four yards per carry in the running game.

The flashes of brilliance are there in every game we have seen this season.

They just have to start executing at every level from the top down. 

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