Broncos vs. Dolphins Week 11 Odds: Denver Home Underdogs | What it Means
The Denver Broncos sit at 3-6 entering Week 11. Their opponent? The 6-3 Miami Dolphins.
Two young teams led by second-year head coaches on completely different trajectories. Mile High Huddle has revealed our predictions and picks for this game, we've singled out the Broncos' rookie to watch, and brought you the final injury report.
All that's left are the betting angles. Here are the betting odds for Sunday's game, according to SportsBetting.com.
ATS: Dolphins -4
Over/Under: 45.5
Moneyline: Broncos +158/Dolphins -189
ATS: The Dolphins are 7-2 this year against the spread while the Broncos are 5-4. The Dolphins have lost just one road game this year and it was in the season-opener against New England.
Meanwhile, the Broncos are 1-3 at home at Empower Field at Mile High. Throwing off the probabilities here is the fact that Miami is starting a rookie quarterback.
As talented as Tua Tagovailoa is, he's inexperienced. Dating back to his time as defensive coordinator of the Chicago Bears, Vic Fangio is 5-3 going against rookie signal-callers with his most recent loss coming as Broncos' head coach at the hands of Gardner Minshew in Week 4 of the 2019 season.
Over/Under: The oddsmakers set the Dolphins' points total over/under at 25.5 with the Broncos at 19.5. I could see a 26-20 win for the Dolphins, or even a 24-20.
Again, this is a difficult pick to make for bettors because the Broncos have been so erratic as an offense, while the Dolphins are starting a rookie QB. I took the 'over' in the Mile High Roundtable this week, with the two teams combining for 37 points and the Dolphins emerging on top.
But it is the NFL and anything is possible. The Broncos have the horses offensively to get to 20-plus points and the defense, when it gets a little help from its offensive counterpart, has the potential to be very stingy.
It all comes down to Lock vs. Tua. Right now, Tua has all the momentum in that QB head-to-head.
Moneyline: The oddsmakers don't expect the Broncos to win this game straight up. Denver is at +158 on the moneyline, meaning, if you bet $100 on the Broncos, you would end up with $158 in winnings alone.
Bottom Line
Any bettor, at this stage, is best off leaning on the favorite when it comes to Broncos games. This week, that's the Dolphins.
Barring a quantum-leap type of turnaround, it's difficult to see the Broncos being favored in any of their remaining games this season.
Although last week was a blowout loss for Denver, Fangio usually manages to keep the margins to a single score even when on the short end of the stick. The caveat to that was last week vs. the Raiders and pretty much anytime Fangio faces the Chiefs.
So, unless the Broncos' locker room has completely checked out, and the coaching staff has tuned out Fangio, this is likely to be a close game down to the wire that is decided by a single score. I picked the Dolphins to win 30-17, as much as it pained me to do so.
Follow Chad on Twitter @ChadNJensen and @MileHighHuddle.
