Midseason Check-in on Cleveland Browns QB Baker Mayfield
While Baker Mayfield has not had the year he or the Cleveland Browns imagined, there is a glimmer of hope as they move into the back half of the season.
It is that time! We have reached the midway point of the 2021 season. Well, sort of. It is hard to tell what midseason is in the midst of a 17-game season. This is the perfect time to take a look at where Baker Mayfield stands as the back-half of the season commences.
Thus far, Mayfield has not blown many away after his torrid finish to the 2020 season. He has racked up just under 2,000 yards through the air with only one touchdown per game to his name. His turnover numbers continue to be a bright spot, however, as he has thrown just three interceptions thus far. Mayfield is completing 66% of his passes in 2021.
Beyond the box score, however, we can get a deeper look at how Mayfield has fared using analytical and efficiency metrics.
Turning on those dreaded computers
Despite a lack of dynamite in the box score, Mayfield continues to be viewed favorably by efficiency metrics. According to Football Outsiders, Mayfield falls 12th in DYAR and is eighth in DVOA. From an efficiency standpoint, Mayfield is playing like a fringe top-10 quarterback. The one metric that is not kind to Mayfield is QBR, where he falls 25th in the league.
In terms of his PFF grade, Mayfield falls firmly in the good graces of the analytical gods. He currently has a grade of 76.1 and is in the green as far as that is concerned. Overall, however, the lack of explosiveness may be bogging Mayfield down.
By all accounts, Mayfield has fallen squarely into the same conversation that Andy Dalton and Kirk Cousins have sunk into throughout their careers.
Checking in on Mayfield's accuracy
A year ago, Mayfield finished the season as one of the hottest quarterbacks in the league. He graded out in the top five of every imaginable metric over that span, leaving plenty of optimism that he was ready to take that step into stardom this year.
Over the last eight games of the season, only Aaron Rodgers was more on-target than Mayfield. Given my Weighted On-Target Percentage metric, Mayfield took a leap from a bottom-five quarterback over the first half of the season to a top-five quarterback over the back-half.
He has not been able to sustain that success thus far in 2021, however. Through nine weeks and eight games for Mayfield, his Weighted On-Target Percentage sits at just 59.32%. This has not been ideal for a quarterback in a franchise year, and for a franchise that is looking for any bit of sustained success at the position.
Thus far, Mayfield is hitting on just over 62% of passes outside the numbers at the intermediate level. His deep ball has been even worse, finding the mark on just 30% of those looks. Over the middle of the field, Mayfield is hovering below the league average as well. He continues to be sharp, however, on timing routes under 10 yards.
Despite this glaring display of accuracy, a glimmer of hope remains.
Talking about the inevitable with or without Odell Beckham Jr.
Okay. The last mention of Odell Beckham Jr. here. However, it feels necessary to discuss how Mayfield's accuracy is affected by the presence of the now Los Angeles Ram.
As we have discussed, Mayfield has a total Weighted On-Target Percentage of 59.32% through eight games of the 2021 season. However, in the three games where Beckham Jr. was not on the field for the Browns, Mayfield's Weighted On-Target Percentage was a staggering 86.54%. This means the five games he did play with Beckham Jr. were tumultuous.
And from an accuracy standpoint, they were. In those five games, Mayfield racked a horrendous Weighted On-Target Percentage of just 47.47%. This would press Sam Darnold's 2020 total for the worst ever charted with this metric.
Taking a look at each level of the field, Mayfield was all-around better without Beckham Jr. on the field. His accuracy was just flat out better when he was not daunted by the presence of his former target. It makes little sense, but it is what it is at this point.
Outside the numbers at the intermediate level, Mayfield hit the mark on a respectable 62.96% of his looks. However, in that three-game sample size we have thus far, he has hit on 8-of-10 throws to that level of the field.
Mayfield's deep ball numbers are even more staggering. He started the season 2-for-2 on passes of 30 yards or more in-depth. He then went on an 0-for-7 stretch when Beckham Jr. returned to the lineup. This past week against the Cincinnati Bengals, Mayfield then hit again on his only deep look of the game. The Browns' quarterback has not missed deep down the field on three attempts without Beckham Jr.
Under ten yards and over the middle of the field was more of the same for Mayfield as both of those levels took a jump in the three-game sample size without Beckham Jr. in the lineup.
Putting a bow on the first half of the season
This is not a film review or breakdown, this is not a deep dive into the mechanical workings of Mayfield as a quarterback. Simply put, this is cold hard data of both efficiency and accuracy done by myself and others who have been tracking data since before I was born.
From charting every throw to evaluating just how efficient Mayfield has been through his eight starts this season, there is evident room for growth. We have seen the flashes and we have seen some deep valleys with Mayfield; it is now time for him to control his own future.
Given what we have, there is a reason for hope for Mayfield to finish strong as he did a year ago. Simply put, however: Mayfield has to play well for the sake of playing well rather than when his back is against the wall. This team will go as far as their quarterback takes them.
Yes, this is a team that loves to run the football. However, without pushing defensive backs on their heels with the threat of layering the ball over the middle and pushing the ball down the field, teams will not fear stacking the box against the Browns. Cincinnati was a great start on forcing teams to respect them vertically.
If the Browns can continue to find success all over the field through the air, then running lanes will be abundant for the likes of Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt (when he returns), and D'Ernest Johnson.
Right now, Mayfield is going to get labeled as the kids say "mid." And frankly, he has earned that label thus far in his career given the ups and downs he has experienced. Yet after the roller coaster experience that has been Baker Mayfield in Cleveland, there is still that inability to quit him. There is still that ray of sunshine poking through the clouds.
Consistency has been the issue for Mayfield. He has the chance to stack games as he enters a matchup with one of the better pass defending teams in the league this Sunday. Want to make a statement? Go out and put on a show against the New England Patriots this week.
READ MORE: Browns Defense - What They Have, What's Missing
