Top 4 Drive Killers for the Browns Offense in 2020
By most metrics, The Browns offense in 2020 was the best that the team has fielded since the return of the franchise in 1999. Points scored, total yards, scoring drive percentage, yards per play, 3rd down conversion rate, pick your measurement.
To see where the Browns can look to improve in 2021, I took a view from 20,000 feet, examining how the Browns unsuccessful drives ended last season. Specifically, I looked at the final series of downs that led to a punt or turnover during the 2020 regular season, excluding victory formations and drives that started with less than 30 seconds in a half or game. Here are some things I found noteworthy:
Sacks: 74% of the sacks taken by Baker resulted in the end of a drive
In general, sacks in the NFL are largely a quarterback stat. This was only more so the case with Mayfield in 2020, given the offensive line being arguably the NFL’s best. Though Baker was not sacked often, PFF tracks a statistic called pressure to sack ratio. This is a percentage of instances where a quarterback pressure leads to a sack.
Baker was 10th worst among quarterbacks in pressures to sack ratio, and I believe this an area to target for improvement in 2021. The path to improvement would be in getting more comfortable in his second year in Stefanski’s offense. Where Baker had to think under pressure in 2020, it should become more second nature in understanding where his outs are when things break down. Turning just a handful of these sacks into completions or even throw aways would mark significant improvement for the offense in 2021.
Offensive Penalties: 41% of offensive penalties contributed to the end of a drive
This again is something that may be considered obvious, but seeing it as a definitive result brings the point home. Offensive penalties were very impactful in ending drives. The most prevalent of these were Jedrick Wills false starts and Baker intentional grounding penalties.
These are entirely within the Browns control, and there is reason to expect marked improvement in 2021. Wills’ switch from right to left side of the line along with him being a rookie go a long way in excusing an inordinate amount of these false starts.
That being said, we need to see the improvement in his second year, and it won’t get easier in other ways such as NFL crowds being back in 2021. We can have reasonable expectations but that doesn’t mean it’s a given. Baker’s intentional grounding penalties seem like an aberration, I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a quarterback commit as many in a single season, and the improvement ties in with the focus on improving his performance under pressure.
Turnovers: Interceptions, Fumbles, Missed field goals, and turnovers on downs accounted for 33% of Browns failed drives
Baker Mayfield had exceptional numbers in terms of both turnover worthy plays and interceptions. It is not a reasonable expectation to look for improvement there. Missed field goals and turnovers on downs did not occur at high rates, which leaves fumbles as the area to focus on for improvement.
Baker can and should continue to work on ball security in and out of the pocket. The Browns also had a number of fluky plays involving receivers that are generally attributed to luck. While not a major target for improvement, this is an area the Browns can focus on to improve in the upcoming season.
Play calling: In failed series, the Browns passed the ball on first down 38% of the time, and ran the ball on second and long 20% of the time
Its no secret that the Browns ran the ball at one of the NFL’s highest rates in 2020, and while a knee-jerk reaction to that might be “well you would too, if you had this offensive line and Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt,” even with the NFL’s best offensive line and two of the top ten RB’s in the league, these situations favor passing and represent opportunities for Kevin Stefanski to increase the Browns chances of extending drives through better playcalling.
In total these things represent incremental improvements, independent of personnel or exotic play designs, that the Browns can reasonably aim for in 2021. Focusing on improvement in these areas can take the best Browns offense in 20 years to one of the best in the NFL this season. That these goals are completely within reach should be exciting for any Browns fan looking forward to this season.
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