Buccaneers By The Numbers: How Next Gen Stats Measure Win Over Saints
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers advanced to 6-6 after defeating the New Orleans Saints, 17-16 on Monday Night Football.
There have been plenty of recaps and reactions to how it happened, including some eerie comparisons to the Saints' late-game meltdown against the Bucs being compared to this team's own collapse against the Cleveland Browns the week prior.
And every week, the good people at Zebra Technologies provide the NFL with Next Gen Stats (NGS) to help measure the stat boxes, beyond the surface.
Here are some regarding Tampa Bay from Week 13.
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• "(Quarterback) Tom Brady threw to (running back) Rachaad White out of the backfield for the game-winning touchdown. White had a 89.8% chance of crossing the goal line when he caught the ball, according to the NGS expected yards after the catch model. Brady completed 14 of his final 19 passes (+4.6% (Completed Passes Over Expected) (CPOE) after starting the game 22 for 35 (-7.4% CPOE). In the first 9 drives of the game, Brady’s time to throw was an average of 2.62 seconds. In the last 2 drives, it was an average of 2.4 seconds."
When the ball came out of Brady's hand on the final pass of the game for the Buccaneers it didn't take long for everyone to see the end result was going to be a good one.
But to see the numbers map a more than 12 percent improvement in his CPOE is a fitting illustration of 'The Brady Effect'.
• "Leonard Fournette: 49 yards on 10 carries, -4 RYOE (Rushing Yards Over Expected)"
What's interesting about this measurement is the fact Fournette was one of just four running backs in the NFL to not run against even one stacked box, according to Zebra Technologies.
Are opposing defenses just that unbothered by Fournette and the Buccaneers' rushing attack, or is it a sign of respect for his ability to be a receiver out of the backfield?
• "Tom Brady certainly likes throwing to his favorite (tight ends) as Cade (Otton) racked up the most targets among all (tight ends) in Week 13 (10). (Otton) caught 6 of these (tied most) but only for 28 yards.
It's no secret that getting production out of young players like Otton and White has helped the Bucs increase production in key moments.
Seeing Otton lead the entire league in targets though, could be a sign of more usage to come, even as veteran Cameron Brate gets healthy.
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• (Saints linebacker) Demario Davis picked off Tom Brady's pass intended for (receiver) Chris Godwin just before halftime on (Monday Night Football). Davis initially aligned in the B-gap (showing blitz), but dropped into coverage at the snap to disrupt the passing lane. The Saints' win probability increased from 51% to 66% after the INT.
Not all stats can be positive, but the fact New Orleans squandered a 66 percent chance of winning, which only grew through most of the second half, really puts into perspective just what Tampa Bay overcame in Week 13.
Stick with BucsGameday and the Locked On Bucs podcast for more coverage of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers throughout the season.
