NFL Analyst Predicts Season Records: Can the Chiefs Take the AFC's No. 1 Seed With Marquee Schedule?

The Kansas City Chiefs may have the strangest schedule in NFL history, but can they still reign supreme in the AFC and grab the conference's lone first-round playoff bye?
Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid surveys the field from the sideline.
Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid surveys the field from the sideline. / Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY
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The NFL's 2024 schedule is set, and the Kansas City Chiefs have a number of scheduling quirks throughout their '24 campaign. The Chiefs are scheduled to play games every day of the week except Tuesday, with Black Friday and Christmas Day (Wednesday) games as the holiday highlights. How will KC fare throughout this strange slate?

Matt Verderame of Sports Illustrated predicted the final records for the entire AFC, and the Chiefs escaped their gauntlet with a strong 14-3 record. Verderame's analysis is italicized below:

Kansas City Chiefs: 14–3

Wins: vs. Broncos, vs. Raiders, vs. Chargers, vs. Ravens, vs. Saints, vs. Texans, at Broncos, at Raiders, at Chargers, at Falcons, at Panthers, at Browns, at Steelers, at Bills
Losses: vs. Bengals, vs. Buccaneers, at 49ers

There will be no shortage of marquee games on the Chiefs’ schedule. Kansas City has the Bills, Texans, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens on the nondivisional docket, along with road dates against the Browns and Steelers. While the strength of schedule isn’t too difficult based on the six AFC West games, the Chiefs don’t have a cakewalk.

Click here to read Verderame's entire AFC breakdown on, but it's worth noting that 14-3 is good enough for the AFC's No. 1 seed (and the accompanying first-round bye) — and perhaps with enough breathing room to rest starters in Week 18, as the next-best record in Verderame's AFC prediction is the 12-5 Bengals. (Since Cincinnati has the head-to-head tiebreaker in this scenario, it could get messy, but we're talking about January 2025 hypotheticals in May 2024, so don't let it stress you out today.)

In my prediction where I previewed every game through the Chiefs' lens, I struggled to find the individual matchups where KC would fall, though a 14-3 record was my actual desired final record. I had KC's two marked-down losses coming to the Buffalo Bills and Las Vegas Raiders (it's weird, I know), with one inexplicable signature "weird game" — which Verderame's Tampa Bay loss would fulfill perfectly.

The early-season Ravens and Bengals matchups are toss-ups for me, as are the later matchups with more volatile Bills and Texans teams. I would have also picked KC to fall to the 49ers this regular season, but with the Chiefs coming off a bye, it's hard to pick against Andy Reid.

All in all, Verderame's methodology is solid, and if KC ends the year with the AFC's No. 1 seed and general good health going into the playoffs, the individual games along the way won't matter nearly as much as that extra rest while preparing to skip straight to the divisional round.

Read More: Previewing and Predicting Every Game of the Kansas City Chiefs' 2024 Schedule

Joshua Brisco


Joshua Brisco is the editor-in-chief and publisher of Arrowhead Report on, covering the Kansas City Chiefs. Follow @jbbrisco.