The Path to a Repeat: Predicting Every Matchup on the Kansas City Chiefs' 2020 Schedule
The Kansas City Chiefs' 2020 schedule is set. Clearly, the only thing for any sane, reasonable person to do is to preview and predict every single game on the schedule as quickly as possible.
Yes, of course, it's ridiculous. And we're doing it. Game by game, winners, losers, and storylines. Have your own thoughts? Leave them in the comments section below.
Week 1 (Sept. 10): Houston Texans, 7:20 p.m. (Thursday Night Football)
The true shame in those early open-with-four-NFC-game rumors was the possibility that this wouldn't be the matchup as the Chiefs hang their Super Bowl LIV Champions banner in Arrowhead Stadium. Their out-of-division home games this year are all relatively low-profile, with this exception. Bill O'Brien and the Texans return to Arrowhead, the scene of their crimes against football in the 2019 playoffs.
Love the matchup, love the story, love the banner going up. Chiefs win. (1-0)
Week 2 (Sept. 20): at Los Angeles Chargers, 3:25 p.m.
Regardless of if fans are allowed into NFL stadiums due to the Coronavirus pandemic by September 20, this is basically a faux-home game. The Chargers are, as always, a talented team with at least one crippling fault. Right now, that's at the quarterback position. I'd lean towards seeing Tyrod Taylor in Week 2, but there's at least a chance that Justin Herbert starts out of the gate. I respect the Chargers for looking for their QB of the future, but I just don't see it with Herbert. Plus, Andy Reid gets a long week to prepare after the Thursday Night opener.
Either way, Chiefs win. (2-0)
Week 3 (Sept. 28): at Baltimore Ravens, 7:15 p.m. (Monday Night Football)
Can you have a playoff game in September?
This game essentially counts as a game and a half for the Ravens and Chiefs. With only one first-round bye in each conference, Baltimore and Kansas City — clearly the class of the AFC — are competing for one extremely important spot. Obviously, this game will be followed by 13 more for each team, but there will be a clear frontrunner in the AFC after this Monday Night Football showdown.
I feel like I'm supposed to take the Ravens here. I'm looking down the line and realizing that if the Chiefs don't take a loss in the first three weeks, they're going to do a lot of winning in 2020. But I can't honestly build the argument. The Ravens are my second pick in the AFC, but I think Willie Gay Jr. will be thrust into a big role in this game, adding more athleticism to a defense that will have to handle Baltimore's best. The Chiefs have the better offense and better quarterback here, and that's the tiebreaker for me.
Chiefs win another nail-biter against the Ravens. (3-0)
Week 4 (Oct. 4): New England Patriots, 3:25 p.m.
This is my first "weird stuff happens" game on the schedule. In the first three weeks of the year, the Chiefs travel twice and play legitimately good teams. Now, it's the biggest unknown quantity in the sport. Bill Belichick has given Mahomes a truly worthy challenge in their matchups, but the Patriots are flatly worse than they have been at any point in recent years.
Chiefs win in a lower-scoring game that's uncomfortable late into the game. (4-0)
Week 5 (Oct. 11): Las Vegas Raiders, Noon
...So, the Raiders are really going at this with Derek Carr and Marcus Mariota, huh?
Honestly, if I was a Raiders fan, I'd be rooting for Mariota to win the starting job. Just give me something new, other than the stadium and city.
If the Raiders would have brought in Cam Newton instead of Mariota this offseason, I'd be genuinely excited to see what they could do this year. But they did not.
By the way, did you know that isgrudengoneyet.com is a real site?
Chiefs win. (5-0)
Week 6 (Oct 15): at Buffalo Bills, 7:20 p.m. (Thursday Night Football)
This is my second "weird stuff happens" game. It's a short week, the Bills are firmly in that I-think-they're-good-but-not-that-good category, it's always hard to travel for Thursday Night Football, tables are on fire in the parking lot, possibly six feet apart from each other... It's going to be weird.
All of that to say: the Chiefs are still the better team, and by a pretty good margin. All 10 of the Bills' wins last year came when holding their opponent to 21 points or fewer. (They also lost three such games.) I don't think they'll be able to do that to the Chiefs... but weird stuff happens.
Chiefs win. (6-0)
Week 7 (Oct 25): at Denver Broncos, 3:25 p.m.
This will be a sexy upset pick, depending on how Drew Lock and his Great Value Chiefs receiving corps look through the first six weeks of the season, but for all of the concerns that come with a short week going to Buffalo, Andy Reid gets a few extra days to get ready for Denver. Plus, we know that Reid has been grinding Broncos film all offseason.
Chiefs win. (7-0)
Week 8 (Nov 1): New York Jets, Noon
Come on.
Chiefs win. (8-0)
Week 9 (Nov. 8): Carolina Panthers, Noon
The Chiefs seriously get two bye weeks before their actual bye week.
Chiefs win. (9-0)
Week 10 - BYE
With three "weird stuff happens" games narrowly won, the Chiefs are undefeated headed into their bye week, and it comes at a nice time.
Week 11 (Nov. 22): at Las Vegas Raiders, 7:20 p.m. (Sunday Night Football)
Similarly to the game at Denver, this could be a widely-considered upset pick, especially if Mariota has taken the starting quarterback job and maybe strings a few wins together, Ryan Tannehill-style. But it's Andy Reid, in the AFC West, coming off a bye. Don't bet against that.
Chiefs win. (10-0)
Week 12 (Nov 29): at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 3:25 p.m.
I'm genuinely excited to see the Buccaneers this year, and, sneakily, kind of rooting for them. Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski with the talent already on the Bucs' offense? It's weird, and I'm generally in favor of weirdness. I also don't see the case for Tompa Brady actually winning this game.
Chiefs win. (11-0)
Week 13 (Dec. 6): Denver Broncos, 7:20 p.m. (Sunday Night Football)
Two AFC West Sunday Night Football games in three weeks! The Broncos could be in contention for a playoff spot in this game. (With one more spot added to the mix this year, 20 to 25 teams will be "in the hunt" at this point.) This gets about halfway to the "weird stuff happens" region for me, but Andy Reid vs. the AFC West keeps that out of contention.
Chiefs win. (12-0)
Week 14 (Dec. 13): at Miami Dolphins, Noon
I gave this one consideration as an upset pick, in a world where Tua Tagovailoa is healthy and starting, the Dolphins are competing for the AFC East, and the Chiefs are between two bigger games. But, as has been the theme, it just seems unrealistic to predict. It's a losable game, depending on how the Dolphins' season goes, but that's not a good enough reason to pick against the Chiefs anymore.
Chiefs win. (13-0)
Week 15 (Dec. 20): at New Orleans Saints, 3:25 p.m.
This is the type of test I want to see the Chiefs have late in the year. A possible Super Bowl opponent, on the road, potentially an underdog for the first time since at least Week 3.
The Saints at least feel like a team structured in a way to beat the Chiefs. It's wild to be 15 weeks into the year and chalk up the team's first loss, but I'm finally doing it here. I don't feel incredibly strongly about it and would take the Chiefs in a Super Bowl matchup, but this is one of only two or three games that I can really talk myself into as a Chiefs loss.
Chiefs lose. (13-1)
Week 16 (Dec. 27): vs Atlanta, Noon
Owners of the second-worst defense by DVOA in 2019, the Falcons' defense should get better with 16th overall pick CB A.J. Terrell and 47th overall pick DT Marlon Davidson, but not that much better. This feels like a possible late-season slip-up for a Chiefs team that could be looking at a nearly locked-up first-round bye, but a win here would mean clinching the spot at home.
Chiefs win. (14-1)
Week 17 (Jan. 3): vs LA Chargers, Noon
This is a weird prediction, but I don't think Patrick Mahomes will play in this game.
The Chiefs could either have the one-seed locked up, therefore not need to play starters in Week 17, or they could be locked into the two-seed, after dropping games to the Ravens and someone else, moving them from 14-1 to 12-3 with a lost tiebreaker to the Ravens. In either of those situations, there's no reason to play this game with starters.
Even then, I could absolutely see Chad Henne outplaying Justin Herbert, but I gave the Chiefs every other "weird things happen" game, so I'm taking this one as a loss.
Chiefs second-stringers lose. (14-2)
Conclusion
The Chiefs are better than every single team on their schedule in 2020. They could, realistically, finish anywhere between 16-0 and 12-4. Anything below that would surprise me. Obviously, a Week 17 must-win game would flip into a Chiefs Win in my book, and even in a world where they lose at Baltimore, at Buffalo and at New Orleans, they could finish 13-3 and still end up with the one-seed if the Ravens drop four of their own — a distinct possibility as they play on the road at Houston and Philadelphia, plus six games in an AFC North that's always good for some strange upsets.
The ultimate takeaway: Week 3 at Baltimore will be huge for the playoff seeding. After that, we'll know exactly how important the rest of the schedule will be for the Chiefs.
