With WR Need Entering Draft, Should Chiefs Push for a Brandon Aiyuk Trade?
Trading for a proven veteran would undoubtedly help KC, but is the cost in money and draft capital worth it?
It's no secret that the Kansas City Chiefs have a need at the wide receiver position. While adding Marquise "Hollywood" Brown to a group headlined by Rashee Rice is solid, Brown is on a one-year contract. There's also one more spot left for a premier talent. Improving in 2024 and beyond makes sense.
Many expect general manager Brett Veach and company to use the 2024 NFL Draft this week as an avenue to snag a wideout. What about a trade, though? The main man who comes to mind right now is San Francisco 49ers standout Brandon Aiyuk.
While San Francisco is hopeful that Aiyuk remains a 49er for life, that reality is far from a certainty. The former first-round pick is set to play on his fifth-year option this coming season, leading to an ongoing contract situation as he seeks a long-term deal. Some believe Aiyuk could be moved this week, providing an intriguing subplot to draft festivities.
How does that apply to Kansas City? Let's examine Aiyuk's profile and decide whether it'd be worth it for Veach to make a massive splash move.
How Aiyuk would fit in the Chiefs' offense
If this past season didn't justify Aiyuk being a top 10 receiver in the league, it's unclear what would. In 16 regular-season games, the Arizona State product hauled in 75 passes for 1,342 yards (a 17.9-yard average per reception!) and seven touchdowns. He posted career-high marks in catch rate (71.4%), yards per target (12.8) and passer rating when targeted (124.0). All of that with a 1.9 drop percentage is pretty hard to beat.
In terms of schematic fit, Aiyuk profiles well for what the Chiefs currently do and would want to do with him in the fold. According to Pro Football Focus, nearly half of his 2023-24 targets came in the intermediate area (10-19 yards from the line of scrimmage) of the field. Aiyuk feasts in the middle of the field, as over 54% of his targets were in the short, medium or deep middle spaces.
Don't get it twisted, though: Aiyuk is an all-field player. While he doesn't do any damage behind the line of scrimmage, nearly 31% of his targets came within 0-9 yards of it. Additionally, 20.8% were 20-plus yards down the field. Combining that with Aiyuk's proficiency against man coverage (3.24 yards per route run last season), it's easy to see where he'd win in the Chiefs' system. He'd be a superb complement to Rice and Brown.
What could a hypothetical trade cost?
This is where the trade-off, pun intended, kicks in. Although Aiyuk carries a $14.1 million cap hit on his option for 2024, an acquiring team would undoubtedly have to extend him. A new contract for a clear star wideout carries an extreme going rate, which makes things tricky for the Chiefs. They have 2024 cap space to make something work, but shelling out $25M or more annually to a wideout — even if he's worth it — goes against what the club did when it traded Tyreek Hill in 2022.
In addition to financial implications, an Aiyuk swap would have draft repercussions for Kansas City. Let's use the Philadelphia Eagles' 2022 trade for A.J. Brown as an example. During draft week, Philadelphia sent picks 18 and 101 to the Tennessee Titans for the star receiver. With the Chiefs picking at 32nd this year, a logical starting point is that offering and either pick No. 95 or a future Day Two selection.
The verdict
First and foremost, there's nothing inherently wrong with an argument for the Chiefs trading for an elite receiver. Aiyuk is just that, and someone (the 49ers or otherwise) will compensate him as such. In Andy Reid and Matt Nagy's offense, he'd provide short-term impact and long-term structure for a wideout room that could use it. In a vacuum, moving for him makes sense.
On the other hand, Kansas City has plenty of decisions to make along the offensive line and also locked up All-Pro defensive tackle Chris Jones on a lucrative deal. With 25 players under contract for 2025 and just under $40M in cap space to work with then, tying up a large chunk for Aiyuk complicates things. Dealing with that and lost draft capital is a sizable risk to take.
For those reasons, it's probably more suitable for the Chiefs to stay the course here. Whether that means picking a receiver at 32 or within the top 75, an addition is necessary. But coming off back-to-back Super Bowl wins, Kansas City has shown that it doesn't necessarily need to go all-in at the position to have success.
