Should the Colts Go After Derek Carr?
When the news broke on Wednesday that the Las Vegas Raiders were benching long-time starting quarterback Derek Carr, it became more likely that the quarterback would be looking for a new home this offseason.
An obvious team that was immediately thrown around as the next home for Carr was the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts have an obvious need at quarterback and have needed one since Andrew Luck’s shocking retirement in 2019. The Colts have also gone the veteran route at quarterback the last three seasons, acquiring Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz, and Matt Ryan in three consecutive offseasons.
Carr has been a solid quarterback since being drafted in the second round of the 2014 NFL Draft. He has thrown for 35,222 yards and 217 touchdowns with 99 interceptions in his career. Carr has also been selected to the Pro Bowl three times.
The 2022 season, however, has not been one of Carr’s finest. Carr is 305-of-502 (60.8%) with 3,522 yards, 24 touchdowns, a league-leading 14 interceptions, and a QB rating of 86.3. Stats, as always, do not tell the full story, but it has been a down year overall for Carr.
With Carr potentially being available, it begs the question: Should the Colts go after the Raiders quarterback?
When the Colts were looking for a new quarterback last season, I wrote that Indy should pull the trigger on Carr if the Raiders made him available. It was reported that the Colts even checked in with the Raiders twice last offseason to gauge the status of the quarterback’s availability. They were turned away each time.
But as is the case in the NFL, much can change in a year. A lot has changed for the Colts since last offseason, and at this point, the Colts should not pursue Carr for a multitude of reasons.
Let’s first look at the financial ramifications that acquiring Carr would bring. Per Spotrac, Carr’s three-year, $121.5 million contract extension is set to begin next season. While Carr’s cap hit is around $34.8 million next year, it jumps to $43.8 million and $43.1 million the following two seasons. That is big-time quarterback money.
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The Colts cannot afford to pay another big contract to a quarterback at this time. While the Colts will likely move on from Ryan before next season, they will incur an $18 million dead cap penalty if Ryan is released or traded. Indy will also save $17.2 million in this scenario.
The best-case scenario for the Colts would be for Ryan to retire after the season. Ryan retiring would bring down the dead cap hit on the Colts to just $6 million. However, Ryan may not want to walk away with so much money guaranteed for next season, whether he is on the team or not.
Because of the dead cap figure of $18 million the Colts will likely have to eat, acquiring Carr’s contract will make things much more difficult for the Colts from a roster-building standpoint. Keeping players like Bobby Okereke and Parris Campbell would be much harder to do. Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman Jr. are also up for contract extensions after next season. Carr’s contract does not make sense for where the Colts are at and what he would bring to the team.
Another reason the Colts should not acquire Carr is that the Colts are no longer just a quarterback away from contending. The Colts thought that by trading for a veteran quarterback like Carr or Ryan, they had the pieces in place to make a playoff run. That turned out to not be the case.
The struggles of the Colts’ offensive line have been well-documented throughout the 2022 season. While the unit has performed better since Bernhard Raimann and Will Fries entered the starting lineup in Week 10, there is still work to be done. The play upfront must improve next season.
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The Colts also do not have the quality of weapons that Carr has in Las Vegas. While Pittman has proven to be a WR1, and rookies Alec Pierce and Jelani Woods have shown great promise, Carr has Pro Bowlers Davante Adams, Darren Waller, and Hunter Renfrow at his disposal. While I am not saying that Carr would not be able to win with the players on this Colts’ offense, the truth is he will not have the top-end talent available to him as he does with the Raiders.
Carr would not be stepping into a playoff-caliber roster at this juncture. The Colts need to make changes in many areas before they are ready to compete.
Finally, the biggest reason for the Colts to pass on Carr is that it continues to kick the can down the road on finding a long-term solution at the quarterback position. Since Luck retired, the Colts have had four different Week 1 starting quarterbacks. Altogether, the Colts have had seven different starting quarterbacks in the four seasons Luck has been gone.
The Colts tried it with Rivers, leading to an 11-5 season and a playoff berth. They tried it with Wentz, leading to a rollercoaster season that finished 9-8 and failed to make the playoffs. The wheels fell off this season with Ryan, Sam Ehlinger, back to Ryan, and now, Nick Foles, as Indy sits 4-10-1 with two games remaining.
The Colts are currently slated to pick fifth in the 2023 NFL Draft, the highest they have picked since 2012 when Luck was taken with the No.1 overall pick. The Colts could move up even higher in the draft order depending on the results during these final two weeks. It is time to finally take a chance on a young quarterback and see if he can lead this franchise for the next 15 years.
Carr is a good quarterback in a bad situation. The hope is that he finds a new home with a team that will give him a good chance to win. At this time, that is not the Colts, and it would be best if both parties are not connected in 2023.
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