Inside AFC South: Bring ‘em Back with New Contracts
The end of the 2020 NFL regular season means looking ahead to which players could be brought back before the league year ends in February.
While some teams have signed valued contract-year players already, other players have had to play out their final years to prove their worth.
Writers for the Sports Illustrated-powered sites covering the AFC South Division’s Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Tennessee Titans weigh in on players they think should be re-signed.
Texans wide receiver Will Fuller V was having his best year before being suspended.
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Houston Texans
When the Texans hire a general manager, one of the first decisions needs to be on wide receiver Will Fuller V, who was having a breakout fifth season before being suspended six games for violating the NFL’s policy on performance-enhancing drugs. He said he unknowingly took prescribed medication that was on the league’s list of banned substances.
It sums up the difficulty in evaluating Fuller, who can deliver exceptional big plays as a deep threat, but struggled to stay healthy and was known to drop passes. Counting the suspension, he’s missed 27 games in five years. He hasn’t played a complete season. But in 11 games this year, he had a career-high 53 receptions for 879 yards and eight TDs, including 14 catches of 20+ yards.
Quarterback Deshaun Watson understandably lobbied for Fuller’s return, especially after former general manager/head coach Bill O’Brien deprived his most valuable offensive player of the team’s best weapon in trading away All-Pro wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins last offseason.
Question is, given his inability to play a complete season, how much will the Texans be willing to pay Fuller? His market value, according to spotrac.com, is estimated at $16.9 million per year for four seasons. That seems like a lot.
The Texans, who went from two-time defending AFC South champions to a disappointing 4-10 this season, have a multitude of holes to fill. None of the other players in contract years would qualify as must-signs. That might work in Fuller’s favor, considering one of the need positions is wide receiver.
Colts quarterback Philip Rivers is expected to be welcomed back for one more year.
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Indianapolis Colts
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After giving extensions to Pro Bowl center Ryan Kelly and defensive tackle Grover Stewart, Colts general manager Chris Ballard is expected to re-sign quarterback Philip Rivers, who played for $25 million this season. Both sides have said from the beginning that they hoped this marriage would last for more than one season. Rivers, who just turned 39 and is in his 17th season, has been particularly effective in leading the Colts to five wins in six games. He’s thrown 20 touchdown passes with nine interceptions, so concerns about the gunslinger making too many risky or ill-advised throws are no longer mentioned.
The next priority should be four-time Pro Bowl wide receiver T.Y. Hilton, who has surged late in the year with four touchdown receptions in as many games. But Hilton’s 50 receptions for 675 yards suggest he won’t command the kind of dollars hoped for, based on his solid nine-year career. Hilton has said this next contract will be his last and he wants to be “a Colt for life.” According to spotrac.com, his estimated value is $11.6 million for four more years.
The Colts have several other players looking to get paid, which means they won’t be able to keep everybody. Ninth-year defensive end Justin Houston says he wants to keep playing. He’s tied for the team lead with 7.5 sacks. Houston signed a two-year, $24-million deal to join the Colts in 2019.
Third-year wide receiver Zach Pascal signed a one-year tender to return for this season, and while his decent numbers don’t jump off the stat sheet, he has more value than some might expect. Pascal leads his position in snaps because he’s an excellent blocker. Pascal has 39 receptions for 524 yards and four TDs. He won’t break the bank, so Ballard would be wise to re-sign him.
Another player who could stay put is cornerback Xavier Rhodes, who had a decent year for $3 million. He didn’t quite return to his former All-Pro form, but he was the Colts’ best cover guy. And good ones can be hard to find.
The Jaguars have to decide on whether to keep offensive left tackle Cam Robinson.
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Jacksonville Jaguars
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When you’re a 1-13 football team, it isn't easy to make arguments for many players as "must keeps,” especially those in contract years. Alas, that is the situation the Jaguars have found themselves in this year.
With that said, there are three impending free agents who the Jaguars would be better off keeping as opposed to letting walk in free agency. None are game-changers, but each is a solid contributor who could be a part of a rebuild.
Left tackle Cam Robinson has started 48 games for the Jaguars since 2017 and can call 2020 his best year yet. He hasn't always been consistent in pass protection, but it doesn't help that his quarterbacks make things much tougher than they need to be. The Jaguars may not want a rookie left tackle to protect their next franchise quarterback's blindside, while the free-agent market for left tackles is thin aside from Trent Williams. Robinson isn't a top left tackle, but he is serviceable enough to retain.
Wide receiver Keelan Cole was a quiet contributor with a few highlight plays his first three years in the NFL, but he exploded in 2020 despite playing on a bad offense with limited quarterbacks. Cole has caught 49 passes for 593 yards and a team-leading five touchdowns, and he should have even better numbers than that. Cole may want to find greener pastures, but he is a solid WR3 with WR2 potential and could be a great weapon for a rookie receiver.
Finally, there is defensive end Dawuane Smoot. The 2017 third-round pick had six sacks in 2019 and now leads the team with 5.5 sacks, five tackles for loss, and two forced fumbles. He isn't one of a team's two best pass rushers, but is a solid rotational lineman who the Jaguars should keep around as long as they can do so at a reasonable price.
Jonnu Smith leads Titans tight ends in receptions, receiving yards.
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Tennessee Titans
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Nearly half the players the Titans currently have under contract are scheduled to be free agents following the season, which creates plenty of possibilities for new deals before the end of the current contract year.
When it comes to who needs to be re-signed, just look at the Titans’ depth. Second-year linebacker David Long is in place and ready to step in for Jayon Brown. Rookie Larrell Murchison is the heir apparent to DaQuan Jones at nose tackle. Corey Davis’ production will be tough to replace at wide receiver, but in terms of the pecking order, he is No. 2 to A.J. Brown, who still has two years remaining on his rookie contract.
Look at the tight ends, though. Each of the Titans’ top four players at that position are un-signed beyond the current campaign. That makes it imperative they bring back Jonnu Smith.
The 2017 third-round draft choice out of Florida International has seven touchdown receptions, which ranks second on the team, and leads the tight ends with 37 receptions and 410 receiving yards, all of which already are or close to career-highs. He also is a favorite of quarterback Ryan Tannehill after the two worked out extensively together during the offseason.
At 6-foot-3, 248 pounds, however, he is not just an oversized wide receiver. He is a willing and capable blocker on the end of the line or down the field, and he has been used to that end more often after injuries cost the Titans two left tackles.
The Titans will have to restock the tight end room this offseason, and regardless of who they get via the draft and/or free agency, Smith will be able to carve out a role for himself. So, they might as well get his name on a contract sooner rather than later.
