Cowboys 7-Round Mock Draft: Lessons Learned, Vol. 2 - They'll Pick Defense
So I’m going to take a pause before I get into my final two Dallas Cowboys mock drafts before the NFL Draft on April 23-25 and look at the lessons I’ve learned (or at least that I think I’ve learned) since my first Mock Draft on Jan. 28.
The Cowboys have made some significant noise in free agency, but there are still personnel gaps to fill. How much of that will play a factor in what they do on draft weekend? Or will the Cowboys just look for the “best player available?” (And we went through all of that last week).
For each round, there’s a lesson learned, plus links to all of my mock drafts and recent stories filed by our Mike Fisher that feature more potential draft nuggets. We’re getting down to it. In just a couple of weeks we’ll know where the Cowboys are headed in this draft.
We’ll get back Mock Draft 10 on April 17 and our final Mock Draft, No. 11, on April 22, the day before the NFL Draft. So let’s get it to it.
Round 1: I still think defense is the pick.
I’ve done nine mock drafts now. Only two have featured a wide receiver. One, Mock Draft 3.0, was to see what would happen if the Cowboys took a wide receiver in the first round. The other, Mock Draft 9.0, was designed to take the best player available regardless of position. So, for me, given the choice, I’ve leaned toward defense. And that’s focused on one position — defensive back.
If you look at free agency, the Cowboys have found some help at safety in Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (though it’s just a one-year contract). The Cowboys also suffered the loss of their best cornerback in Byron Jones. If you’re trying to calibrate need and value in the first round, the defensive backfield is probably the way to go. I’m not sure the Cowboys have anything close to a shut-down cornerback on the roster right now. While it would be too much to ask for a rookie to do that, at least a player like LSU’s Kristian Fulton would help bolster the position group.
Wide receiver is a trending position in Cowboys mock drafts right now. But there’s so much depth beyond the first round at wide receiver — and the depth at cornerback really falls off after the second round — that if the Cowboys want impact at the defensive back position they’ll probably have to go that way in the first round.
Plus, our Mike Fisher outlined the ‘impossible’ choice the Cowboys could face in the first round.
Jan. 27 Mock: S Grant Delpit, LSU
Feb. 4 Mock: DE K’Lavon Chaisson, LSU
Feb. 11 Mock: WR Laviska Shenault Jr., Colorado
Feb. 18 Mock: S Xavier McKinney, Alabama
March 5 Mock: CB Kristian Fulton, LSU
March 12 Mock: CB Kristian Fulton, LSU
March 19 Mock: S Xavier McKinney, Alabama
March 26 Mock: CB Kristian Fulton, LSU
April 3 Mock: WR Jerry Jeudy, Alabama
Round 2: Stock up on more ‘D’
The wheelhouse in this round, throughout nine mock drafts, has been defense. More specifically, the defensive line, with a pair of Texas-based tackles — Texas A&M’s Justin Madubuike and TCU’s Ross Blacklock — leading the way.
I think defensive tackle is still a possibility here, even though the Cowboys have bolstered the position with the signings of Gerald McCoy and Dontari Poe. McCoy is 32 and on a three-year deal. Poe is only in Dallas on a one-year deal. So the long-term answer at the tackle position still doesn’t exist at the moment. Taking a player like Madubuike or Blacklock would be a nice fit in both the short-term and the long-term. The only variance has been an offensive tackle (TCU’s Lucas Niang) and safety (Minnesota’s Antoine Winfield Jr.). If you’re thinking need here, then the defensive line is probably the way to go.
There’s a significant drop-off after the second round, especially at defensive end, where the Cowboys could also use some help in the wake of Robert Quinn’s departure. ... Though "monster'' news on Aldon Smith is certainly impressive.
Jan. 27 Mock: DE Bradlee Anae, Utah
Feb. 4 Mock: DT Ross Blacklock, TCU
Feb. 11 Mock: DT Justin Madubuike, Texas A&M
Feb. 18 Mock: OT Lucas Niang, TCU
March 5: DT Justin Madubuike, Texas A&M
March 12 Mock: DT Ross Blacklock, TCU
March 19 Mock: DE Curtis Weaver, Boise State
March 26 Mock: S Antoine Winfield Jr., Minnesota
April 3 Mock: RB Jonathan Taylor, Wisconsin
Round 3: Now do the Cowboys start thinking about a wide receiver?
This is a deep draft at wide receiver. A team like the Cowboys, with a solid 1-2 punch of Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup, could start looking for a complementary piece here. In my Mock Draft 1.0 I ended up with Denzel Mims from Baylor. In Mock Draft 2.0 I came up with Ohio State’s K.J. Hill. In other mock drafts I’ve taken wide receivers in the fourth or fifth rounds. These are quality receivers, too. They fit that Gallup prototype in that they’re receivers who can help the Cowboys and grow into a quality player with a long-term NFL future.
My mock drafts have mostly yielded defensive players here, and I wouldn’t rule it out. But I see the Cowboys taking at least one wide receiver in this draft, and the third or fourth round feels like the right wheelhouse to find a player that can make an impact.
A note on Mims. He feels more like a first-round prospect now. I’ve seen him play several times in person. I love him as a player. Good hands, good route runner, solid speed and knows how to use the field. Good football IQ. He’d make a good third receiver as a rookie. I just don’t think he lasts to the third round at this point. The secret seems to be out. And our Mike Fisher had the deets on Mims’ virtual meeting with the Cowboys.
Jan. 27 Mock: WR Denzel Mims, Baylor
Feb. 4 Mock: WR K.J. Hill, Ohio State
Feb. 11 Mock: S Brandon Jones, Texas
Feb. 18 Mock: DE Kenny Willekes, Michigan State
March 5 Mock: S Jeremy Chinn, Southern Illinois
March 12 Mock: DE Darrell Taylor, Tennessee
March 19 Mock: CB Darnay Holmes, UCLA
March 26 Mock: DE Jonathan Greenard, Florida
April 3 Mock: S Ashtyn David, Cal
Round 4: If the Cowboys start going off-script, here’s the spot
In nine mock drafts my belief has been that the Cowboys would take some combination of defensive back, defensive line and wide receiver in the first three or four rounds. The Cowboys have a level of need at each of those positions, even after the moves they’ve made in free agency. Now, there are no guarantees on draft weekend, of course.
But if the Cowboys decide to deviate “off-script,” so to speak, it could be here. In my previous mock drafts, I’ve taken players like Vanderbilt tight end Jared Pinkney, Texas wide receiver Collin Johnson and Michigan State linebacker Joe Machie. Will the Cowboys take any of those players on draft weekend? No one can be certain. But this could be the player where the Cowboys take a flier on a player with some serious athletic chops, but might be defined as a project by some observers.
Jan. 27 Mock: TE Jared Pinkney, Vanderbilt
Feb. 4 Mock: S Richie Grant, UCF
Feb. 11 Mock: DE Khalid Kareem, Notre Dame
Feb. 18 Mock: WR Collin Johnson, Texas
March 5 Mock: DE Alton Robinson, Syracuse
March 12 Mock: S Jordan Fuller, Ohio State
March 19 Mock: WR Chase Claypool, Notre Dame
March 26 Mock: LB Joe Machie, Michigan State
April 3 Mock: WR K.J. Hill, Ohio State
Round 5: What about center?
I haven’t really addressed the center position in my mocks for a couple of reasons. First, Travis Frederick didn’t retire until recently. Second, the Cowboys have a short-term answer in Joe Looney and, perhaps, a long-term answer on the roster already (Mike Fisher broke all of that down in the wake of Frederick’s retirement). Still, most NFL teams are loathe to spend a high pick on a center.
Now, Frederick was a special player and certainly worth the late-first-round selection the Cowboys used on him. But is there a center in this draft that’s worth that sort of treatment? Maybe. My guess is the Cowboys will ‘cheap out’ and look for a guard with center-capable skills. That’s if the Cowboys choose to take one at all.
Jan. 27 Mock: CB Levonta Taylor, Florida State
Feb. 4 Mock: OT Jack Driscoll, Auburn
Feb. 11 Mock: CB Essang Bassey, Wake Forest
Feb. 18 Mock: CB Myles Bryant, Washington
March 5 Mock: WR Tyler Johnson, Minnesota
March 12 Mock: WR Michael Pittman Jr., USC
March 19 Mock: LB Markus Bailey, Purdue
March 26 Mock: WR Devin Duvernay, Texas
April 3 Mock: RB Lamichal Perine, Florida
Round 5 (compensatory)
March 12 Mock: RB Lamical Perine, Florida
March 19 Mock: TE Albert Okwuegbunam, Missouri
March 26 Mock: CB A.J. Green, Oklahoma State
April 3 Mock: S Antoine Brooks Jr., Maryland
Round 7: The wild card
By the seventh round, teams have scouts and personnel people positioned to sign undrafted free agents as soon as the draft ends. So the seventh-round pick is actually important, because the selection is someone that you’re certain won’t fall out of the seventh round and into your waiting hands as an undrafted free agent. The Cowboys also have a profile here, which I’ve mentioned in previous mocks.
The Cowboys like players with Power 5 pedigree late in the draft, players that have worked with good coaching and have played on big stages. Along with the usual position flex and the potential help on special teams that most teams are looking for, the Cowboys are likely to take a player from a program you’ll have little trouble recognizing.
Jan. 27 Mock: DL LaBryan Ray, Alabama
Feb. 4 Mock: CB Lavert Hill, Michigan
Feb. 11 Mock: OT Colton McKivitz, West Virginia
Feb. 18 Mock: DT Robert Landers, Ohio State
March 5 Mock: FB Sewo Olonilua, TCU
March 12 Mock: WR James Proche, SMU
March 19 Mock: OT Scott Frantz, Kansas State
