NFL Draft: Where Do Cowboys Rank in Player Value?
FRISCO - The NFL Draft is probably the most important element in the success or failure of any NFL team. One draft pick could have a ripple effect that lasts for an entire decade one way or the other. Draft well, and a team can be set for many years. Draft poorly, and you could watch a player you passed on helping his team win championships.
There are a ton of "what-if" scenarios when we look back at a team's draft classes, so ESPN decided to look back at all drafts since 2012 to see which team got the most value from players relative to where they were picked.
It wasn't just guesswork. To evaluate players taken over the last 10 years (2012-2021), they used the Approximate Value (AV), Pro Football Reference's method of measuring the performance of every player. Then they took each player's career AV and put it up against a value based on where that player was taken in the draft. They call that the Career Approximate Value Over Expected (CAVOE).
If you're still with us, that means players drafted higher each year have a higher baseline for performance. So if they struggle, they'll have a lower CAVOE than a later-round pick who performs similarly.
To get the team ranking, they added up CAVOE scores for all players drafted since 2012, regardless of how long a player was with the team that drafted them. The idea is to see which teams drafted players who provided the most value over their careers.
Where do the Dallas Cowboys match up against other teams over that time period?
According to ESPN's not-at-all-complicated formula, Dallas has the fourth-highest CAVOE of draft picks at 125.2.
As they posted a 90-71 record during that time, here's how the players and drafts were ranked:
| YEAR | CLASS CAVOE | TOP PLAYER BY CAVOE (ROUND) | LEAST CAVOE (ROUND) |
|---|---|---|---|
2012 | -42.7 | DE Tyrone Crawford, 14.6 (3rd) | CB Morris Claiborne, -35 (1st) |
2013 | -4.3 | C Travis Frederick, 11.4 (1st) | TE Gavin Escobar, -18.1 (2nd) |
2014 | 68.3 | G Zack Martin, 34.2 (1st) | WR Devin Street, -5.3 (5th) |
2015 | -9.1 | LB Damien Wilson, 16.2 (4th) | DE Randy Gregory, -16.4 (2nd) |
2016 | 89.6 | QB Dak Prescott, 61.8 (4th) | DE Charles Tapper, -15.6 (4th) |
2017 | -8.9 | S Xavier Woods, 16.0 (6th) | DE Taco Charlton, -14.3 (1st) |
2018 | 24.6 | WR Michael Gallup, 12.5 (3rd) | LB Chris Covington, -6.1 (6th) |
2019 | -13.3 | RB Tony Pollard, 9.3 (4th) | DT Trysten Hill, -6.3 (2nd) |
2020 | 17.9 | CB Trevon Diggs, 11.6 (2nd) | CB Reggie Robinson II, -4.3 (4th) |
2021 | 3.1 | LB Micah Parsons, 11.7 (1st) | DB Kelvin Joseph, -3.0 (2nd) |
TOTAL | 125.2 |
Best class from 2012-2021 drafts: 2016. When you get your franchise quarterback in the fourth round, like the Cowboys did with Dak Prescott, then there's no competition. But the Cowboys also landed Ezekiel Elliott, Jaylon Smith, Maliek Collins and Anthony Brown in the draft. The Cowboys believe a healthy Elliott, the fourth overall pick, will rebound in 2022. Smith's recovery from a knee injury was amazing and he signed a lucrative extension in 2019 but was cut last season. Collins is still a starter in the NFL. Brown has been one of the better sixth-round picks the Cowboys have had over the last two decades. It is possible the 2020 draft class, led by CeeDee Lamb, Trevon Diggs, Neville Gallimore and Tyler Biadasz, could surpass this class but they need more time to produce at high levels.
CAVOE from Day 3 draft picks (Rounds 4-7): 52.5, 10th
Best Day 3 steal? QB Dak Prescott, fourth round, 2016. One of the biggest draft steals in recent memory, finding a franchise QB in the fourth round is something that's usually unheard of. Prescott has turned into the face of the franchise for the Cowboys since being drafted.
Some Cowboys fans might argue that there's no way Dallas has the fourth-most successful draft classes since 2012, but when it's broken down this way, it's easy to see the reason for all the accolades in recent years.
Where do Dallas' NFC East opponents rank?
Of course, none have had the success of the Cowboys, with the Washington Commanders scoring a 38.3, which is No. 10 on the list, the Philadelphia Eagles ranking No. 6 with a 75.7, and the New York Giants ranking No. 26 with a -136.3 score,
The No. 1 overall team is the Seattle Seahawks with a total CAVOE of 176.6, and the worst drafting team since 2012, with a total CAVOE of -304.9 is the New York Jets.
Regardless of the Cowboys' draft success over the past 10 seasons, it hasn't translated to championships or even playoff success. And that's where Dallas needs to sort things out. And soon.
