Why the Dolphins Will Defeat the Bills in Week 17, Why They Will Lose, And What's Actually Going to Happen
It has come down to this: The Miami Dolphins will look to clinch a playoff berth with a victory when they face the Buffalo Bills at Bills Stadium on Sunday.
Though they still could get in even if they lose, the Dolphins obviously would prefer taking care of business themselves and not having to rely on Baltimore, Cleveland or Indianapolis losing as heavy favorites.
The Dolphins are 10-5 following their improbably 26-25 come-from-behind victory against the Las Vegas Raiders; the Bills have clinched the AFC East title with their 12-3 record and will secure the second seed in the AFC playoffs with a victory against the Dolphins or a Pittsburgh Steelers loss against Cleveland.
RELATED: The Week 17 Dolphins Playoff and Draft Possibilities
Here are different ways this game could play out:
The Dolphins will win because ...
-- We'll start with the most obvious reason of all, and that's Buffalo resting quarterback Josh Allen and several other front-line players — or using them only in the first quarter — to prepare for the playoffs instead of going all out to finish 13-3 and clinch the second seed regardless of the Pittsburgh-Cleveland outcome.
-- With Allen sitting, the Dolphins defense will harass either backup Matt Barkley or rookie Jake Fromm into a couple of key mistakes that will lead to easy scores.
-- The Dolphins running game will continue its strong late-season work, with Myles Gaskin enjoying another solid performance.
-- Rookie Tua Tagovailoa will respond in the biggest start of his young NFL career by throwing a couple of touchdown passes and hitting at least one deep pass downfield.
RELATED: Just Another Game for Tua
-- Wide receiver DeVante Parker will return to the lineup after missing a couple of games with a hamstring injury and have a big performance.
-- Josh Allen will play, but the Dolphins defense will find a way to contain him, both in the running game and passing game.
-- The Dolphins will neutralize wide receiver Stefon Diggs after he had such a big game at Hard Rock Stadium in Week 2, and that will make slot receiver Cole Beasley's absence even more significant.
-- This might not be highly analytical, but the Dolphins will win because they just look like a team of destiny, as evidenced by their borderline miraculous comeback at Las Vegas last weekend.
RELATED: The Anatomy of a Wild Finish
The Dolphins will lose because ...
-- The Bills will decide that maintaining their momentum heading into the playoffs is more important than playing it safe and will show again why they're legitimate Super Bowl contenders this season.
-- The Dolphins will be only marginally better against the Buffalo passing game than in Week 2 when Allen threw for 415 yards and four touchdowns.
-- Wide receiver John Brown will return for the first time since Week 10 and continue to hurt the Dolphins after scoring four touchdowns, including one from 46 yards out in Week 2, in three games against Miami over the past two seasons.
-- Allen will put up modest passing numbers but add to his total of eight rushing touchdowns on the season.
-- The Dolphins offense will have a rough outing against a Bills defense that didn't allow more than 255 total yards in any of Buffalo's past three games.
-- The Dolphins passing game once again will fail to produce a big play after failing to come up with a completion longer than 15 yards in the past two games.
-- The offensive line will have a hard time against a Buffalo pass rush that produced three sacks each of the past two games.
What actually will happen ...
My prediction record is exactly the same as that of the Dolphins (10-5) heading into the season finale after I hit the game at Las Vegas correctly (never a doubt!).
This one is difficult to predict mainly because of the mystery surrounding what the Bills will do with their front-line players in this game because head coach Sean McDermott — unlike Steelers coach Mike Tomlin — decided to keep that a secret outside of the team facility.
It's not a clear decision for the Bills because they have to weigh risking injury to one of their key players against the risk of losing the momentum they have built during their current five-game winning streak (every win by double digits).
Let's be clear, at this exact moment there's no team playing better football than the Bills — and, yes, that includes the Kansas City Chiefs, who are 14-1 but have had some close calls in recent weeks.
This is why it's difficult to see the Dolphins winning this game if the Bills decide they want to make sure they don't lose their mojo heading into the playoffs.
The reality is the Dolphins are a much-improved team with a bright future ahead, but the Bills are simply further along in their development at this point.
But the flip side is the Bills already lost wide receiver Cole Beasley in the late stages of their 38-9 blowout of the Patriots last Monday night and, with McDermott classifying his injury as a week-to-week deal, may have to be without him when they start the playoffs.
The thought of losing somebody else to injury against the Dolphins just might be enough to convince McDermott to field his B team against the Dolphins.
Or it could be that Josh Allen and other players like Stefon Diggs and Tre'Davious White will play only the first quarter or so, which is how McDermott handled things in Week 17 last year when Buffalo was locked into the No. 5 seed heading into its finale against the New York Jets.
RELATED: Setting the Stage for the Dolphins-Bills Matchup
We're thinking that's ultimately the route McDermott will choose for this game and the Dolphins will take advantage of it.
Mind you, just because the Bills will rest some players for most or all of the game — if we're right on this — doesn't mean it's going to be a cakewalk for the Dolphins because Buffalo still will be looking to win the game.
But this just has the feel of a year of destiny for the Dolphins, and we see no reason why that ends before they get to the playoffs.
Dolphins 19, Bills 17
