Sunday Dolphins Mailbag: Tua and Context, Cook and the Cap, and More

Part 2 of the latest SI Fan Nation All Dolphins mailbag:

From Hebert Gutierrez Morales (via email):

Hi Alain, I know I repeat it every week, but thanks to your work (and Omar’s too) because both of you always inform with the truth, and not with sugarcoated lies in order to be more popular and get clicks. Your work is very professional and ethic. Props to both of you. I know you’ve covered the Dolphins since Shula’s days, so I have a question: Do you miss the days when you do your work and you don’t have to deal with some dumb (as in disrespectful or rude) fans on social media? Or are you happy with all the interaction in today’s social media era? Maybe today is more interesting, but I think it’s also more stressful to you. What do you think?

Hey Hebert, thanks as always and please feel to repeat the statement every week LOL. It’s an interesting question you ask, but I think I’d be inclined to say I prefer the immediate feedback and interaction after I write a story. I’m always good for disagreements because those are healthy and somebody also might raise a point I didn’t consider. What I don’t appreciate are those who comment without reading the story or make it personal, you know, criticize my take or opinion all you want but don’t question my integrity, work ethic or even football knowledge (I’ve been doing this more than 30 years, I have at least a small clue about the sport).

From Brian Z (via email):

Is it possible the longer it takes, the less likely that Dalvin Cook signs here. I am looking at the $2 million that the Vikings owe him. If he signs for more, the Vikings owe him nothing. The veteran minimum for him is roughly $1 million. Do you think a team, such as Miami, would be wise to offer him an incentive/bonus laden contract. If Miami offered him 1-year minimum, plus bonuses and incentives how might it look? Maybe $1 mil salary, plus Vikings $1 mil, plus $3 mil signing bonus, plus incentives: $1 mil if make Pro Bowl, $1 mil if make All Pro, $1 mil if rush for over 1,000 yes, $1 mil if NFL rushing leader. Then, Dolphins cap hit is only $1 mil, and Cook can earn as much as $9 million this year. He has an incentive to do well. The Dolphins will still have $12 mil to sign more players (inside linebacker help, O Line help, Safety help etc.). What do you think? Would you think this would be something both parties might agree too?

Hey Brian, while I’ll admit I’m no cap expert (it is very, very complicated), what I do know is that the signing bonus has to be accounted for on the cap, so if he signs a one-year deal with a $3M signing bonus, that’s $3M against the cap right there. Then incentives are considered “likely to be earned” if it’s something he player achieved the previous season, so because Cook rushed for more than 1,000 yards and made the Pro Bowl, that’s $2M more on his cap number and we’re now up to $6M on a one-year deal. If he’s signed to a two-year deal, say, then the only thing that changes is the signing bonus gets spread against the cap over those two years. The final part of the equation is that I’m not sure Cook would be content with an incentive-heavy deal, though we may get to the point where he doesn’t have any kind of appealing offer elsewhere and ultimately settles for that for, among other things, the chance to play for his hometown team.

From ChrisDavis (@KyLouFinFan):

Thanks as always. I know better than to ask who the surprise training camp cuts will be, so what 2-3 players with the highest 2023 cap savings are less than 100% safe even if 85-90% safe? Safety is from on-field performance only.

Hey Chris, the player with the biggest cap savings for the Dolphins if they chose to cut him at this point, per overthecap.com, actually is center Connor Williams. The Dolphins would save $5 million of cap, though also would incur $3.4 million of dead space. If we’re looking at players where the cap savings is higher or considerably higher than the dead space, that list of players includes Robert Hunt, Alec Ingold, Zach Sieler, Keion Crossen, Brandon Jones, Raekwon Davis, Salvon Ahmed, Cedric Ogbuehi and Robbie Chosen. Of those, I think it’s safe to suggest that Crossen, Ahmed and Ogbuehi would be the most vulnerable in terms of their roster spot.

From Olive Grove Jon (@Owlizee):

Hi Alain, if the Dolphins don’t win the AFC East, which would be the most likely contributing factor: strength of schedule, the OL or injuries to key players?

Hey OGJ, this is a very interesting question and I would rank them in this order, starting with the most likely: key injuries, strength of schedule, offensive line. I’m of the belief that the offensive line, while it maybe won’t be a top 10 group is not going to be the difference between winning or losing the AFC East. As I look back on last season, I thought the offensive line really was at the forefront of a loss only twice, against the Jets and Minnesota when Tua was sidelined with his concussion and Teddy Bridgewater and Skylar Thompson constantly were under duress. The O-line wasn’t the reason for the losses during the five-game losing streak or the playoff game at Buffalo.

From Dave (@angryvet59):

With all the (as you put it) "Beep Beep" speed with Hill, Waddle & now Chosen, do you think Coach McDaniel can actually commit to running more? Also, if Miami signs any FA RB not named Cook, do some in the fan base go absolutely bananas ? Thanks for all the good work, Alain!

Fans go bananas? Now, why would you think that EVER would happen? Yes, I think some fans would go bonkers if an RB other than Cook was signed, but I’m not expecting that to happen. I’d say at this point it’s more than 50-50 they just stay with what they have. As for the first question, yes, it’s going to be awfully difficult to turn to the running game more because, as I’ve said repeatedly, the strength of this offense and what makes it special when it’s clicking is the speed outside and the problems that Hill and Waddle create. And the essence of good coaching is to maximize your team’s strengths and minimize its weaknesses, so …

From FZB (@fzb3346):

Does Fangio’s defense rely heavily on the nose tackle on running plays? If so, we need a backup big time. Anyone out there worth taking a look at?

Hey FZB, every scheme that features a 3-4 look more often than not needs a run-stuffing nose tackle, though Fangio’s scheme actually might be more interested in interior D-linemen who can create some pressure on the quarterback. It’s why we suggested Akiem Hicks as a good fit earlier in the offseason — and he’s still available. Regardless of who it is, the Dolphins absolutely need to add depth on the interior of the defensive line because there’s no proven player behind Wilkins, Davis and Sieler.

From Dug-E-Fresssh (@fluflu3):

First, let me officially apologize for any mentions of the Expos moving as an off-handed joke to you in the past. My A's are leaving & I'm heartbroken and crestfallen! I'm now empathetic to your hat. Mea culpa, Alain! Are there any updates on our special teams you can share?

Hey there, I’m glad you now can understand the pain, which I might add is compounded for me because I was there from the very beginning — as in, I saw their first-ever game on TV (11-10 win against the Mets, with their starting pitcher hitting the first home run in franchise history) — and then had their dream season pulled from under them by the 1994 strike and everything go south (literally) after that. Anyway, I digress. In terms of special teams, the one thing I can share from the practices that were open to the media is that Jake Bailey nailed practically every one of his attempts at getting the ball downed inside the 10-yard line while rookie Michael Turk didn’t show that same kind of touch.

From Kana (@svhessi):

Is Tua the only QB in the history of the NFL that has his playmakers mentioned when discussing his performance in order to provide context?

Hey Kana, the answer is no. And, yes, I will provide context when the comment (from Omar) is, "Tua delivered the most big plays of any NFL quarterback last season” without mentioning the fact he played with the two fastest wide receivers in the league, as though it was Tua only who delivered the big play when Baltimore decided not to cover Hill down the left sideline for an easy 60-yard touchdown or when the Chargers CB fell and it was another easy pitch-and-catch for a 60-yard touchdown, or when Waddle took about a 10-yard crosser against Green Bay and turned it into an 86-yard touchdown. Tua being the quarterback with the most long passes is a statement that, if accurate (would have to check), could stand on its own. The phrasing “delivered the most big plays” suggests it was all him. Having said all that, since you’re obviously coming from a defensive place where you think I’m attacking QB1, I have written and said that Tua had a very good 2022 season. He also led the NFL in passer rating, which is an undeniable statistical fact. But it’s the offense that "delivered" the most long plays, not just Tua.

From Joshua Sued (@joshua_sued):

Do you feel the Dolphins have enough with what they have to win it all or is there another piece missing that would put them over the top? Also, any injury concerns to start the season like Byron last year? And how is Trill’s recovery looking so far?

Hey Joshua, I’ll go in reverse order. While I didn’t attend, reporters on hand at Xavien Howard’s celebrity softball game on Saturday spoke with Williams, who said he was doing “fantastic,” which is great news because he’s a very intriguing player to me. Second, there is no player of Byron Jones’ magnitude with anything as serious as what he was dealing with heading into camp, which also is good news. Lastly, the Dolphins will have enough if most, if not all, of their key ascending players take that next step. And that starts with Tua coming up big down the stretch and into the playoffs because the AFC is loaded with quarterbacks who can make the difference — Mahomes, Burrow, Allen, Rodgers, Herbert, Lawrence, Jackson and even Watson if he gets back to Houston form.

From SaidWhatISaid (@addifinndaddy):

Do you foresee Miami just letting the cap roll over to help out with next season's money woes?

This is a great point you make because the Dolphins already are in the red with their 2024 cap commitments, so there’ll be work to be done. So, yes, I absolutely could see the Dolphins refraining from any unnecessary additions to try to roll over whatever cap space they can.

From Gilbert Martinez (@Gilbert00669204):

Hello Alain, love your podcast ! Do you think Dalvin will really sign with Miami? It wouldn’t really bother me if he didn’t, I don’t think we should overpay. We already have awesome talent.

Hey Gilbert, I don’t see any scenario where the Dolphins would overpay because their offense is built around the speed outside and because it’s simply not their pattern to spend big bucks on a running back. The question then becomes, what would constitute big bucks? They did give Chase Edmonds $12 million over two years last offseason, but they hadn’t brought back all four running backs like they have this year. Bottom line: I’d still say it’s less than 50-50 Cook ends up with Miami, and it’ll happen only if he can’t get the kind of deal he wants somewhere else.

From Francisco Rivero (@Francisco0River0):

Who is someone Dolphins fans aren’t talking about right now but will be a household name by year’s end?

Hey Francisco, hmm, that is a great question. Let me see … here’s one for you. Watch Eric Saubert emerged as the main pass-catching tight end and end up with half a dozen or so touchdown in the end zone. Disclaimer: The author shall not be held responsible if that prediction falls flat.

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Alain Poupart has covered the Miami Dolphins on a full-time basis since 1989. You can follow him on Twitter at @PoupartNFL. Feel free to submit questions every week for the All Dolphins mailbag via Twitter or via email at fnalldolphins@yahoo.com.