2024 NFL Mock Draft: Risers, Fallers in New 1st-Round Forecast

After a few weeks of real-game action, here's an updated look at how next year's first round could turn out.

We're three full weeks into the 2023 college football season, which means we've got a decent chunk of updated film on some of the top prospects in the country, as well as some promising sleepers who have launched themselves onto the draft radar.

We're also two weeks into the NFL regular season, and we've got quite a few surprises in the standings so far that could impact next year's draft order.

It looks like we'll have a loaded quarterback class this time around, but how many of these talented signal-callers could crack the first round? How will teams value the best running backs in this year's class after two came off the board in the top 12 last April?

As we take stock of the first few weeks of the football season at both levels, here's an updated look at how the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft could shake out, using the latest Super Bowl odds to determine the pick order:

1. Arizona Cardinals

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Caleb Williams | QB | USC

Still the easy choice for whatever team ends up with this pick, Williams continues to live up to the sky-high preseason hype with dominant performances every week. Getting out from under Kyler Murray's massive contract might take some gymnastics, but the Cards would make it happen to ensure Williams becomes their new franchise quarterback.

2. Arizona Cardinals (from HOU)

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Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | Ohio State

If the Cards land the top two picks in next year's draft, it might be tempting to go defense here after taking Williams. That said, Harrison has all the makings of a rare pass-catching presence who could follow his dad's footsteps into Canton. Giving Williams that kind of No. 1 receiver to grow with would be an ideal start for a new era in Arizona.

3. Chicago Bears (from CAR)

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Drake Maye | QB | North Carolina

If the Bears keep up their current trend and end up picking twice this early in the draft, it'll be evident that the Justin Fields era just never materialized. Starting over at quarterback will be the prime objective in that scenario, and Chicago would be in position to land a potential franchise passer in Maye, who has all the tools to be a star at the next level.

4. Chicago Bears

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Jared Verse | EDGE | Florida State

This scenario would give the Bears a tough choice between a franchise left tackle to protect their new quarterback, or a stud pass rusher they desperately need off the edge. They can't go wrong either way, but if Braxton Jones continues to develop this season, it wouldn't be surprising to see Chicago prioritize the defense with Verse.

5. Indianapolis Colts

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Olu Fashanu | OT | Penn State

This would be the ideal scenario for the Colts, no matter where they end up picking. Fashanu is the top offensive tackle prospect in the class, and could have been a top-10 pick in this year's draft. Instead, he opted for another year of polish and experience at the college level, which should only make him an even better player when he lands at the next level.

6. Las Vegas Raiders

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Shedeur Sanders | QB | Colorado

Jimmy Garoppolo is a decent stop-gap veteran for this season, but the Raiders clearly need a more dynamic playmaker with a higher ceiling at the game's most important position. Sanders has proven so far this season that his success at Jackson State wasn't a fluke, displaying elite physical and mental traits that could end up making him a top-10 pick.

7. Denver Broncos

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Joe Alt | OT | Notre Dame

Financially, the Broncos are stuck with Russell Wilson for a while yet, for better or worse. That means they should invest as much as possible in keeping him well-protected, and that means finding a long-term replacement for aging veteran Garett Bolles at left tackle. Alt is a plug-and-play starter with the polish and technique to make an instant impact at a premium position.

8. New York Giants

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Kool-Aid McKinstry | CB | Alabama

Deonte Banks already looks like a stud, but the Giants could use a long-term running mate to man the other corner spot across from him. McKinstry isn't just one of the best names in this year's draft class, but a true shutdown artist with the size, length and athleticism to be give the Giants one of the league's best young tandems at the position.

9. New England Patriots

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Brock Bowers | TE | Georgia

If there's not a top-shelf quarterback worth taking here, the Patriots need to give Mac Jones (or whoever ends up throwing passes for them next season) as many playmakers as possible to provide some much-needed juice for a stagnant offense. Bowers is a versatile weapon who can line up all over the field and make big plays on every touch, especially after the catch.

10. Washington Commanders

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Amarius Mims | OT | Georgia

Sam Howell is looking like a massive fifth-round steal, and he's got a fantastic offensive coordinator (Eric Bieniemy), and plenty of weapons. What he needs is more help up front, which the Commanders should be able to find in this range. Mims is expected to miss some time following ankle surgery, but when healthy, he's a stud blocker who can play either tackle spot.

11. Los Angeles Rams

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Jer'Zhan Newton | DL | Illinois

Who knows how much longer Aaron Donald will play, but why not find a undersized understudy who can learn from one of the best to ever play the game? Newton has been a one-man wrecking crew this season, and brings equal impact as a run-stuffer and a pass rusher, something every defense is desperate to find along the interior. 

12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

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Dallas Turner | EDGE | Alabama

So far, it looks like Baker Mayfield might be the perfect fit for the Bucs at quarterback, which could lead to a long-term contract. If the Bucs go that route (or if they don't like the available quarterbacks here), they could look to upgrade at right tackle, or address the pass rush. Shaq Barrett will turn 32 next season, and the jury is still out on Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, which might lead Tampa Bay to target an explosive rusher like Turner if he's still on the board here.

13. New York Jets

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JC Latham | OT | Alabama

If Aaron Rodgers is gonna take one more shot at it next season, the Jets will have to improve the protection around him if they want to keep him healthy this time. Latham is a massive mauler who can line up on either side at tackle, or even slide inside and play guard, if necessary. Wherever he lines up, Latham would be a huge asset for a Jets team with renewed Super Bowl hopes.

14. Minnesota Vikings

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Michael Penix Jr. | QB | Washington

It's still anyone's guess how the remaining quarterbacks will come off the board when April rolls around, but for my money, Penix needs more respect as a potential first-rounder. Yes, he'll be a 24-year-old rookie with a length injury, but when he's on the field, he's just too good at all the important things when it comes to playing quarterback at a high level. Much like fellow lefty Tua Tagovailoa, when Penix is healthy, he's a superstar.

15. Tennessee Titans

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Graham Barton | OL | Duke

This name might surprise you, but Barton has quietly put together some impressive film this season, and he brings valuable versatility to the offensive trenches. Regardless of whether or not he lines up at guard or tackle at the next level, Barton is a powerful blocker with the mental and physical traits to make an instant impact, much like Titans' 2023 first-round pick Peter Skoronski.

16. Pittsburgh Steelers

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Kalen King | CB | Penn State

The Steelers stole one Penn State corner in this year's draft, so why not to it again next time around? King and Joey Porter Jr. gave the Nittany Lions one of the nation's best corner tandems last season, and reuniting them would be a huge win for the Pittsburgh defense. It would also give Penn State a first-round defensive back for the first time ever, which sounds preposterous.

17. Seattle Seahawks

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Maason Smith | DL | LSU

The Seahawks have plenty of young studs on defense, but they could still use some impact players along the interior of the defensive front. Smith would be the perfect fit as a massive, athletic defender who can line up at multiple spots, blowing up the run and pushing the interior of the pocket on his way to opposing quarterbacks.

18. Green Bay Packers

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Kingsley Suamataia | OT | BYU

When healthy, David Bakhtiari has been one of the most consistently effective offensive tackles in the league. That said, he'll be 32 next year, and he's dealt with injuries in recent years that make it imperative for the Packers to find a successor. Suamataia is a huge, powerful prospect with ideal length and strength who would be worthy of taking the torch from such a respected veteran.

19. Atlanta Falcons

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Laiatu Latu | EDGE | UCLA

This defense needs an explosive, dynamic edge rusher who can wreak havoc on opposing quarterbacks, and this year's deep class should give them plenty of attractive options in the first round. Latu's injury history might give some teams pause, but he's been dominant so far this season, proving the impact he can make when he's at full strength.

20. Los Angeles Chargers

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Leonard Taylor III | DL | Miami (FL)

The Chargers have some stellar edge defenders, but they need more juice along the interior of their defensive front. Taylor is an explosive, disruptive force who can blow up run plays in the backfield, as well as deliver valuable pass-rushing ability from the inside. A presence like that would be a welcome addition to this group.

21. New Orleans Saints

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Malik Nabers | WR | LSU

Chris Olave is already one of the NFL's best receivers, but Michael Thomas is a shell of his former self, and there's nobody else on the depth chart who strikes fear into the hearts of opposing defenders. In this scenario, the Saints wouldn't have to look far for that kind of player, as Nabers would bring big-play ability and the perfect skill set to pair with Olave.

22. Houston Texans (from CLE)

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Rome Odunze | WR | Washington

Nico Collins looks like he's breaking out this year, and Tank Dell looks like a big-play threat for this offense, but that shouldn't stop Houston from targeting another blue-chip target to help out C.J. Stroud. Odunze might be the most underrated player in this entire draft class, with the complete skill set and ideal frame to be a dominant pass-catcher at the next level.

23. Jacksonville Jaguars

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Cooper DeJean | DB | Iowa

The Jags have one of the most complete rosters in the league right now, but they could use more playmakers at both levels of the secondary. DeJean is a rangy, athletic defender who can line up on the outside at corner, inside as the slot defender, or on the back end at safety. He's a ballhawk no matter where he lines up, and would be a huge weapon for an ascending defense.

24. Detroit Lions

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Kris Jenkins | DL | Michigan

Another defense that needs more beef in the trenches, the Lions could use a disruptive force to shore up their run defense and give them some interior pass rush help. Jenkins' name might ring a bell, as the son of a former NFL defender who knew how to hold down the trenches back in his own day, and the younger version lives up to his old man's name.

25. Cincinnati Bengals

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Emeka Egbuka | WR | Ohio State

Offensive line is always a strong possibility for Cincy, but if they can't afford to keep Tee Higgins (and still give Ja'Marr Chase his eventual extension), finding a potential No. 2 receiver to replace Higgins' impact might be the priority. Egbuka could easily come off the board much earlier, so if he's still on the board here, he would be the perfect blend of need, value and fit.

26. Miami Dolphins

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Cooper Beebe | OL | Kansas State

Once again, Tua Tagovailoa is proving he can play at an MVP level when healthy. That means the Dolphins need to keep doing whatever it takes to protect him, so adding to the offensive line next offseason would be ideal. Beebe can line up at either guard or tackle, and that versatility would be attractive to a Miami team that could use upgrades at either position.

27. Baltimore Ravens

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Nate Wiggins | CB | Clemson

This secondary needs plenty of help, and corner should be the primary focus next offseason. Wiggins has been perhaps the brightest spot for the Tigers so far this season, proving himself to be one of the nation's top corners through the first few weeks. If he keeps up this level of play, he'll be a first-round lock when April rolls around.

28. Buffalo Bills

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Keon Coleman | WR | Florida State

Stefon Diggs is still one of the best receivers in the NFL, but he can't do it all by himself, and the Bills need to find a No. 2 target in the offseason who can take pressure off their WR1. Coleman's combination of size, athleticism and physicality would make him the perfect running mate across from Diggs, and give Josh Allen a massive target who can dominate in red-zone and contested-catch situations.

29. Dallas Cowboys

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JT Tuimoloau | EDGE | Ohio State

There might be bigger needs on this roster, but the Cowboys can afford to prioritize overall value instead of passing up a better player just to fill a position that's more glaring. This year's deep class of edge defenders could push some talented prospects down the board, and Tuimoloau could end up being one of them. He's a versatile defender who can line up on the edge or slide inside on passing downs, and Dallas loves to mix things up with their pass-rushing packages.

30. Philadelphia Eagles

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Chop Robinson | EDGE | Penn State

Another value pick, the rich get richer as the Eagles continue to load up on explosive edge rushers. Robinson already has a refined tool box full of polished pass-rushing moves, and his first-step quickness makes him a nightmare for opposing offensive tackles. If he's still on the board at this point, the rest of the league will regret letting him land in Philly.

31. San Francisco 49ers

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Tyler Nubin | DB | Minnesota

Giving this defense more playmakers feels unfair, but the 'Niners should always be looking to add versatile defenders who can line up at multiple spots on the field and impact the game in a wide variety of ways. Nubin fits the bill there, as a ball-hawking back-end defender who can play centerfield, or line up closer to the line of scrimmage.

32. Kansas City Chiefs

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Cade Stover | TE | Ohio State

As much as Chiefs fans won't want to admit it, it might be time to start looking for Travis Kelce's eventual successor. This year's draft class should give them plenty of promising options at the end of the first round, and Stover has the talent to ascend into this range with a stellar 2023 campaign.