Prospect Breakdown: Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
The 2023 NFL Draft class is loaded with stars at the running back position. One athlete, though, has established himself as the near-consensus top running back and arguably the top overall prospect available in April of 2023. Texas's Bijan Robinson has been a projected top pick since his freshman season with the Longhorns. After two years in Austin, the exciting back is widely considered an elite talent with both a high floor and a high ceiling in his projection to the league.
Born January 1st, 2002, in Tucson, Arizona, Robinson comes from an athletic family. His grandfather, Cleo, was an all-state linebacker and track standout in high school. He would later run track at Northern Arizona. He became a basketball and football official at the high school and collegiate levels, working in the Pac-10 and the Big Sky before moving to the Pac-12 as an instant replay official. Robinson's great uncle, Paul, lettered at the University of Arizona before playing running back in the NFL for six years. A third-round pick by the Cincinnati Bengals, the elder Robinson ran for 1,023 yards as a rookie. He made the Pro Bowl twice.
After an incredible four years at Salpointe, Robinson's future as a college star seemed inevitable. As a high school freshman, he ran the ball 42 times for 378 yards and four touchdowns; he added 12 catches for 233 yards and two scores. The team went 10-3 overall and 4-0 in the region to earn a regional title. Salpointe made it to the AIA 4A state semifinals that season. As a sophomore, Robinson broke out for 2,023 rushing yards and 26 touchdowns on 189 carries. He also caught the ball eight times for 136 yards and three touchdowns. He recorded multiple scores in nine games and helped the team to a 12-2 record, another 4-0 in-region record and regional title, and the AIA 4A state title game. He was named first-team 4A all-conference, 4A Kino Region Offensive Player of the Year, and first-team all-region.
As a junior, Robinson put up a staggering 2,400 rushing yards and 35 touchdowns on 170 carries. He hauled in 10 receptions for 153 yards and one touchdown. The Salpointe offense averaged 43.9 points per game and owned a 13-1 record, a 5-0 in-region record and regional title, and the AIA 4A state title game. Robinson was awarded 4A Conference Offensive Player of the Year and 4A Kino Region Offensive Player of the Year on his way to first-team all-region recognition. Before his final season with Salpointe, Robinson was placed on the 2019 Preseason Arizona All-State team by MaxPreps. As a senior, he ran for 2,235 yards and 38 touchdowns on 126 attempts. He caught 12 passes for 314 yards and three touchdowns. The star back even contributed on special teams, returning four kicks for 239 yards and one 94-yard touchdown. Robinson had at least four rushing touchdowns in seven games that year while helping Salpointe average 52 points per contest. The team went 10-1 and 5-0 in the region for a regional title. Salpointe went to the AIA Open Division state semifinals. Robinson was named 4A Kino Region Player of the Year and Offensive Player of the Year, Arizona National Football Foundation Frank Kush Player of the Year, and Arizona Gatorade Player of the Year.
At the end of his illustrious high school career, the now-Texas standout had a legitimate claim to be considered the best high school football player in Arizona state history. Robinson is the first running back in state history to top 2,000 yards in three consecutive seasons. He is the state's all-time career touchdown leader with 114 scores and its leading rusher with 7,036 yards. He is the first player in Arizona high school history to win the Ed Doherty Award, given to the state's top high school football player by the Grand Canyon State Gridiron Club twice. Robinson went to the All-American Bowl.
An elite high school player, Robinson was a highly decorated recruit. 247Sports Composite Rankings gave him a five-star rating. The same outlet named him the 15th-best player in the nation, the best running back in his class, the second-overall recruit from Arizona that year, and the 294th-ranked recruit of all time. He chose to attend Texas over a long list of elite programs that included Alabama, Ohio State, USC, Auburn, LSU, Michigan, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, and more.
Though many players take time to develop into college standouts, Robinson quickly became a star. He played nine games for the Longhorns as a true freshman and started the last six of the year. He ran the ball 86 times for a team-high 703 yards and four touchdowns. He also caught 15 passes for 196 yards and two touchdowns. He broke school records for yards per carry in a game (19.1 at Kansas State) and a season (8.2). His 14 plays of 20 or more yards led the team and were the sixth most in a season by a Texas running back since Ricky Williams won the Heisman Trophy in 1998. Robinson was the only FBS player in the past two decades to rush for at least 170 yards on ten or fewer carries more than once in a season. His 915 all-purpose yards (which included one kick return) on 102 touches made him the first freshman at Texas to lead the team in all-purpose yards since Cedric Benson in 2001. Robinson was the Big 12 Offensive Freshman of the Year in 2020.
The back's stellar freshman year earned him national recognition. Before the 2021 season, Robinson was placed on the preseason watch list for the Maxwell Award and the Doak Walker Award. He made the 2021 Walter Camp Football Foundation Player of the Year watch list, the Phil Steele Preseason All-American First Team, the Phil Steele All-Big 12 First Team, ESPN's Preseason All-America Team, the 2021 Walter Camp Football Foundation Preseason All-America Second Team, the 2021 Athlon Sports Preseason All-Big 12 First Team, and the 2021 All-Big 12 Preseason Team. Robinson did not disappoint as a sophomore. In 10 games (all starts), Robinson had 195 carries for 1,127 yards and 11 touchdowns. He caught the ball 26 times for 295 yards and four scores. During the season, he earned Midseason All-American honors from AP, CBS Sports, ESPN, The Athletic, and The Sporting News. Robinson had six total 100-yard rushing games and made 12 plays of 20 yards or more. He came second in the Big 12 and eighth nationally in all-purpose yards per game (142.2), third in the Big 12 and eighth nationally in rushing yards per game (112.7), third in the conference in scoring (nine points per game) and total touchdowns (15), and fifth in the conference in yards per carry (5.78). Robinson was named First-Team All-Big 12 by conference coaches and AP. He was a semifinalist for the Maxwell Award, the Doak Walker Award, and the Earl Campbell Tyler Rose Award. He earned honorable mention as Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year. He made the Academic All-Big 12 First Team.
Entering his junior season, Robinson is considered an elite college running back. The Walter Camp Football Foundation, The Sporting News, and Phil Steele placed him on their Preseason All-American First Teams. He was a unanimous selection to the All-Big 12 Preseason Team. Robinson earned the 2022 Big 12 Preseason Offensive Player of the Year title. He made the preseason watch list for the Maxwell Award.
Bijan Robinson's blend of size, movement, power, and pass-catching make him an intriguing prospect.
Considered by many to be the top prospect at his position since Saquon Barkley in 2018, Bijan Robinson has the ideal size and build for an NFL running back. He is listed on the Texas roster as 6000 and 220 pounds. What's more, he has excellent flexibility in his hips, knees, and ankles for his size.
Despite his above-average frame for the position, the Texas star boasts stellar movement skills. He is very linearly explosive and has angle-beating speed, and his burst is far too much for closing linebackers and defensive linemen. Robinson's lateral burst, fluidity, and agility are special. The Longhorns' standout exhibits rare balance both through cuts and through contact.
As his stats suggest, Robinson is an exciting player with the ball in his hands. The Longhorns' back has shown a willingness to stay patient and read his blocks. His vision improved each snap of the 2021 season. Robinson is a willing north-south back who likes contact, picks up short yards when necessary, and is rarely tackled for a loss. Further, he has the fluidity to work to any hole and explode past the first level. Robinson's vision in space is solid. A smart runner, the Arizona native, has a knack for taking advantage of bad pursuit angles and rarely wastes movement or time as a runner.
Running backs who cross the 6000 and 220-pound thresholds are often pure power runners; Robinson, though, is a shifty back by nature. He is elusive in space and traffic, both from a standstill and while moving. His instincts as a runner - knowing when to outrun defenders, cut back, or lower his shoulder - border on elite. Robinson precedes sharp, sudden cuts with stellar body language, body fakes, and directional work to force opponents to make mistakes. He masterfully sets defenders up before making them miss with great timing. He can make cuts at full speed without losing pace. Robinson rarely telegraphs his moves and can string changes of direction together seamlessly. The college star stops and starts on a dime, and his jump cuts are explosive.
In addition to his rare ability to make defenders miss, the Longhorns' bell cow back plays with impressive power. The 220-pound athlete enters contact with great pad level and runs with a natural forward lean that almost spring-loads him into contact or away from defenders on breakaway runs. He generates power very well in short areas, even when he enters the tackle point off balance. Robinson gains a second wind after contact to work through tacklers. The Salpointe product displays the power and leg drive to run through defenders, carry them, and fall forward. He is far too strong for arm tackles. Likewise, he bounces off of opponents who fail to wrap up. Robinson keeps a strong and active off hand to throw defenders off of him. He has a unique feel for incoming contact; the exciting back adjusts and manipulates angles to minimize his opponents' functional power at the point of contact.
The University of Texas featured a run-heavy attack in 2021 to highlight its star offensive weapon; that said, Robinson has shown he is a gifted pass-catcher in limited opportunities. He complements his fluidity and rare ability to cut on a dime with salesmanship in his route running to consistently separate from linebackers and some defensive backs. He catches the ball naturally with his hands.
A running back's likelihood of seeing an NFL field early in their careers often depends on their ability to block. Robinson has not had many chances in pass protection, as he is typically either a ball carrier or a route runner. Still, the athletic back is a willing and physical blocker. If he improves his technique, he is strong enough to take on bigger defenders. He stuns defenders if he engages properly and with a solid base. Robinson's efficacy as a blocker progressed each week of the 2021 season.
Bijan Robinson, a preseason Heisman Trophy candidate, is poised for a stellar 2022 season.
For all his strengths, the 2022 Heisman hopeful is not a perfect prospect. The substantial wear and tear that Robinson has undergone in his Texas career thus far may concern NFL teams. He has had less than 10 carries just four times (all as a freshman) in his career heading into his junior season. Though it should not cast a lasting shadow over his draft profile, the dislocated elbow that ended Robinson's sophomore year prematurely is a tangible reminder of his heavy workload and the risk a running back takes in every game.
In addition to the concerns that accompany his unquestioned status as a bell cow back in the Longhorns' offense, Robinson must refine his game as a ball carrier to find success behind what will inevitably be imperfect offensive line play in the league. While his athleticism has overshadowed the shortcomings in his vision to this point in his career, the Arizona native's inability to consistently make plays out of structure may limit him in the NFL. Robinson tends to simply follow his blockers, and he has not yet shown that he regularly recognizes opportunities to bounce his runs outside or choose gaps outside those laid out for him. Robinson must learn to work to space more. At the moment, he takes the inside over the outside lane too often and, in doing so, leaves yards and home run plays on the field. Similarly, Robinson is sometimes too willing to lower his shoulder for nasty yards. Though he does not have noted ball security issues, the talented back fumbled twice in the team's matchup with Iowa State - a performance that Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian claimed was anomalous - in an attempt to gain yards through gang tackles.
Naturally, an athlete who is most often deployed as a ball carrier receives relatively few snaps as a blocker. Robinson, generally either the runner or a receiver on a given play, is not quite NFL-ready in pass protection. His vision and awareness are underdeveloped. Moreover, his technique is poor. He oversets, stagnates his feet, engages with a high pad level, and leads with his shoulder. Robinson gives up his chest far too easily and can be pushed or displaced.
The 2023 NFL Draft class features exciting talent at almost every position. In a strong running back class, Robinson stands out. In 2021, the Texas star's film was that of a player worthy of being taken early in the first round; however, the running back position has seen a steep decrease in its perceived value in recent years. As a result, Robinson may hear his name called late in the first round or early on day two of the 2023 NFL Draft. Working on his vision and blocking in 2022 would improve his chances of being a high first-round selection in April. Though he has flashed in pass protection, Robinson is not ready to consistently contribute in that area. With proper coaching and dedication, he has the tools to be a high-level blocker.
Additionally, his proclivity for avoiding a loss of yards has caused him to leave big plays on the field at times by cutting inside. By recognizing his talent in space and playing to his strengths, Robinson can add to his already-staggering explosive play (20 or more yards) total and impressive resume as a big-play threat. Bijan Robinson is among a few players in the conversation to be the top overall prospect in the 2023 NFL Draft. He projects as an above-average starter in a gap scheme early in his career. Robinson has the potential to grow into one of the best players in the NFL in any offensive system.
Grade (Floor / Ceiling): Solid starting three-down back in a gap or power scheme / All Pro-caliber scheme-versatile running back.
