What Would Falcons Hiring Joe Brady Mean for Bijan Robinson?
The Atlanta Falcons fired head coach Arthur Smith after stagnating to the tune of three consecutive 7-10 seasons. Smith, an offensive-minded coach, struggled to get enough out of his quarterbacks, even with three recent top-10 picks surrounding them.
In turn, Atlanta is searching for a head coach who will optimize the already talented roster and (presumably) take the Falcons into a win-now window. How the new lead man utilizes the No. 8 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, running back Bijan Robinson, could set the tone for their tenure and support whoever is under center in 2024.
On Saturday, the Falcons completed their head coaching interview with Buffalo Bills interim offensive coordinator Joe Brady. What would his hire mean for Robinson?
Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson (7) runs against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the second half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
The primary impact of a Brady hiring could be a continuation, if not an increase, in Robinson’s receiving acumen. At each of Brady’s stops where he’s had legitimate control – the Louisiana State Tigers, the Carolina Panthers, and the Buffalo Bills – a running back has largely been a force in the passing game.
Of course, when Christian McCaffrey is in the backfield, that’s a given. But at LSU, Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s 55 catches and 453 yards made NFL teams a believer in his third-down abilities. He would become a first-round pick.
Bills running back James Cook is another vehicle for explosive plays. Nearly half of his targets, 26 of 54, came in the final seven games, where Brady was the offensive coordinator. He isn’t just a check-down option, though, Cook has made plays downfield. No running back had a higher average depth of target than Cook’s 2.5 yards. Subsequently, Cook ranked second among running backs in expected points added (as a receiver), and on a per-route basis.
Robinson, meanwhile, saw 58 receptions on 86 targets in his rookie season. He turned that into 487 yards and four scores. However, he was as much of an explosive-play threat as he was a security blanket for an offense that couldn’t threaten defenses downfield. One should expect to see him used heavily as a receiver, though deeper than his 0.6-yard average depth of target from this season.
Atlanta fans can be confident that if Brady is the hire, workload won’t be an issue for Robinson. Running back Tyler Allgeier soaked up a lot of the Falcons’ carries this season – which isn’t inherently bad, given his level of talent – but stirred up controversy given Robinson’s draft capital.
Assuming Allgeier is on the roster, he’ll still be a factor, but he’ll likely take up fewer carries in the red zone and against heavy boxes than this past season. Brady has shown a tendency to trust his talents, especially when they are as game-breakingly talented as, say, Bills quarterback Josh Allen. Brady is happy to let his quarterback will Buffalo to victory, extending plays that others can’t. Rather than toning down the aggression, Allen is unleashed.
“I think when you try to hold Josh Allen back you’re probably doing a disservice,” Brady said, just days after a 52-yard touchdown run helped the Bills advance to the Divisional Round.
Brady has long shown a proclivity for creating explosives with his running backs, but he isn’t afraid to lean on them either. Cook carried the rock 16+ times five times after Brady’s promotion, compared to just once before.
A Brady hire may not be the best choice for the franchise, a field of Bill Belichick, Jim Harbaugh, and other young coordinators is certainly a strong field. But for Robinson and his potential to become the true face of Atlanta football, there may not be a better match.
