Do The Math: How Can Falcons Still Make Playoffs?
The playoff hopes for the Atlanta Falcons took a major hit with Sunday's 31-13 loss to the San Francisco 49ers. There's no debating that fact.
The Falcons' 18-point defeat coupled with the Detroit Lions shocking 18-point win against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 15 means Atlanta now possesses the worst point differential (minus-126) in the NFC. Only the Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars and New York Jets are worse in the entire NFL.
Atlanta's strength of victory is also second-worst in the NFL at .333. Although after Sunday's results they have two wins against teams with .500 marks (New Orleans and Miami), the Falcons haven't beaten a team with a winning record this year.
But in what is the crazy 2021 NFL season, the Falcons are not eliminated from playoff contention. And considering they are 6-8, the their road to a postseason berth is quite clear.
First and foremost, the Falcons must win all their games. Three straight victories to end the regular season will gave Atlanta a 9-8 record.
Two of Atlanta's final three contests are at home, where the Falcons are 0-5 this season, and their lone road trip remaining is to Buffalo. The Falcons last won three straight games at the end of the 2019 season. Atlanta has won back-to-back games just once this season.
The last time the Falcons beat a playoff team on the road was also December 2019. That's part of why Sunday's loss was so costly to Atlanta -- had the Falcons won at San Francisco, they could have still fallen in Buffalo and had a chance at a 9-8 finish.
In all likelihood, the Falcons won't finish with three straight wins, and the scenarios for Atlanta making the playoffs with a 8-9 record are too unlikely to consider.
But for fun hypothetical reasons, let's say they do finish 9-8. What else has to happen for the Falcons to make the postseason? What results should Atlanta fans be rooting for down the stretch?
Atlanta's playoff hopes are actually not as long of a shot as one might initially think. Here's a breakdown of what the Falcons need by the week:
Week 16
- Minnesota Vikings loss to Los Angeles Rams
- Washington Football Team loss to Dallas Cowboys
Week 17
- Minnesota Vikings loss to Green Bay Packers
Week 18
- Philadelphia Eagles loss to Dallas Cowboys
Including Tuesday night's conclusion to Week 15, Washington and Philadelphia play each other twice in the final four weeks. In addition to the results above, the Falcons need the Eagles and Washington to split their two meetings.
The results above aren't all that unlikely. The Cowboys, Packers and Rams are all fighting for division titles and should win those four games above. The tricky part could be if the Cowboys don't have much to play for in Week 18, but if Dallas wins the next two weeks, home-field advantage will be on the line during the final Sunday.
The most difficult result the Falcons need is Washington and Philadelphia to beat each other each once. Because Atlanta lost to both Washington and Philadelphia, the Falcons can't make the postseason ahead of either of them with the same record.
Interestingly, New Orleans is not anywhere on the list of results needed for Atlanta to make the postseason. That's because the Falcons already beat the Saints and will play them again in Week 18. If Atlanta wins-out, New Orleans' best possible finish is 9-8, and the Falcons would own the tiebreaker.
But as possible as these scenarios may be, again, they mean nothing if the Falcons don't win-out to finish 9-8. That's the biggest result Atlanta needs in the final three weeks of the regular season.
