UPDATE - NFL Draft: How High - Or Low - Can Falcons Pick?
The Atlanta Falcons finish their season on Sunday against the New Orleans Saints as 4.5-point underdogs at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
With the Denver Broncos' 28-24 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs on Saturday, the Falcons currently sit with the No. 11 pick in the 2022 NFL Draft in April, but they could draft as high as No. 7 or as low as No. 14 depending on the outcome of this weekend's games.
The Broncos finished the season 7-10 and have moved from No. 12 to No. 10, leapfrogging the Falcons.
Last week not a single team that finished in the bottom 16 of the draft order beat a team that finished in the upper half. Teams in the lower 16 were 0-10 against upper-half teams. The only three wins were against teams drafting in the top six spots.
Our prediction is the Falcons will finish with the No. 9 draft pick after losing to the Saints on Sunday.
There are so many decisions to make that will impact the draft. Is QB Matt Ryan staying? Can the Falcons conjure up a winning trade of Calvin Ridley? But for now ... Here are the different scenarios and what to watch this weekend as the Falcons draft position solidifies before the search for "more Kyle Pitts-like players'' begins. ...
The Falcons are currently 7-9 on the season, and there are three 6-10 teams and three 8-8 teams. Because of the strength of schedule tie breaker, only one of the 8-8 teams, the Miami Dolphins, has a chance to push ahead of Atlanta after this weekend's games.
If the Falcons LOSE and Finish 7-10
First and foremost, for the Falcons to get the highest draft pick possible, they would need to lose to the Saints and finish 7-10 on the season. If that happens, the Falcons could pick as high as No. 7.
No. 7 Seattle Seahawks (6-10) at Arizona Cardinals (11-5)
Sunday 4:25 p.m.
The Seahawks are 6.5-point underdogs in Arizona. Atlanta could move ahead of Seattle with a Seahawks win. The Seahawks have won three of their last five games including a win over the same 49ers team that throttled Atlanta on December 19.
Seattle has no incentive to tank for the higher pick; their pick goes to the New York Jets regardless.
Not a likely win, but a possibility.
No. 8 Chicago Bears (6-10) at Minnesota Vikings (7-9)
Sunday 1 p.m.
The Bears have won two in a row including a win at Seattle two weeks ago. Chicago is only a 2.5 point under dog to Minnesota. The Vikings have lost two in a row, but to NFC contenders in the Green Bay Packers and LA Rams. The Vikings beat the Bears in Chicago 17-9 on December 20.
The Bears would love to win and beat a rival, and their pick goes to the Giants as part of last year's trade for quarterback Justin Fields.
No. 9 Washington Football Team (6-10) at New York Giants (4-12)
Sunday 1 p.m.
Washington has dropped four in a row but to just two teams. Washington has had home and homes with the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles the last four games. They were competitive in all three except a 56-14 blowout loss in Dallas.
The Giants are just awful.
Washington should win this game and are seven-point favorites.
No. 10 Denver Broncos (7-10) - Season Over
The Broncos gave the Chiefs all they wanted on Saturday in a 28-24 loss, but ultimately lost their 13th in a row to their division rival.
The loss temporarily puts the Broncos ahead of the Falcons, but Atlanta would move back ahead of the Broncos with a loss to the Saints.
If the Falcons WIN, and Finish 8-9
The Falcons are tied with the Minnesota Vikings and Cleveland Browns at 7-9, and a Falcons win could move them down as many as three spots in the draft.
No. 12 Minnesota Vikings (7-9) vs. Chicago Bears (6-10)
Sunday 1 p.m.
This game is played before the Falcons on Sunday. A Vikings win would eliminate the possibility of the Falcons falling below them or climbing above the Bears.
A Falcons fan that can't stomach the idea of losing to the Saints will be rooting for the Vikings on Sunday. A Falcons fan that wants the highest possible draft pick will be rooting for Chicago.
No. 13 Cleveland Browns (7-9) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (10-6)
Sunday 1 p.m.
The Bengals are playing their best football of the season and certainly don't want to lose to their northern-border of Ohio rivals.
The Browns have lost three in a row and just shut down quarterback Baker Mayfield for the season.
If the Falcons win, they're probably falling behind the Browns who lose to the Bengals on Sunday.
No. 14 Miami Dolphins (8-8) vs. New England Patriots (10-6)
Sunday 4:25 p.m.
The Dolphins had won seven in a row against the dregs of the NFL, but they got blown out 34-3 last week by the 11-5 Tennessee Titans.
It doesn't get much easier this week as they host the Patriots as 6.5-point underdogs.
Miami's strength of schedule is within thousandths of percentage points of Atlanta's at .467 for Miami vs. .461 the Falcons.
A Miami loss would improve their strength of schedule while a Falcons win would ironically lower their strength of schedule. So Miami shouldn't be able to climb above Atlanta, but the numbers are close enough that results across the rest of the week could change .006 difference in favor of the Dolphins.
It will be a fun afternoon on Sunday as teams jockey to finish with a win, but fans can be consoled knowing that the NFL rewards the losers.
Predicted Final Draft Order
| Draft Pick | Team | Record |
|---|---|---|
#7 | New York Jets via Seattle | 6-11 |
#8 | New York Giants via Chicago | 6-11 |
#9 | Atlanta Falcons | 7-10 |
#10 | Denver Broncos | 7-10 |
#11 | Cleveland Browns | 7-10 |
#12 | Washington Football Team | 7-10 |
#13 | Miami Dolphins | 8-9 |
#14 | Minnesota Vikings | 8-9 |
