How much will Todd Gurley help the Falcons?
The Atlanta Falcons, per reports, will sign running back Todd Gurley, as the NFL world knows by now. Days after moving on from Devonta Freeman, the club reached a one-year, $6 million contract with the recently released back. The former Georgia star will bring a veteran presence to the backfield following the release of Freeman, the Falcons' longtime running staple.
Gurley comes at such a modest price for good reason, despite totaling over 7,000 yards of total offense and 70 touchdowns in high first five seasons. In June of 2019, Gurley's trainer Travelle Gaines reminded the public of an arthritic issue in his left knee that dates back to college.
Gaines confirmed to CBS Sports that his client is dealing with an "arthritic component to his knee," but stressed that Gurley will be ready for the 2019 season."Everybody knew when Todd came out of Georgia that there would be some kind of arthritic component to his knee, which is part of every surgery whether it's a shoulder, a knee, an ankle," Gaines said late last week. "He's now at the year-five mark, all we're doing is managing that. If we can pound him less in the offseason while keeping his weight down, working on his strength, working on his agility in short areas, that's going to give him a better chance to be healthy Weeks 14 through 17 when they really count."
Gurley went on to have the worst season of his career in 2019, totaling career lows in both rushing yards (857) and total yards (1,064). The Rams elected to bit the bullet, releasing Gurley before any of his 2020 roster bonuses could go in to effect. He will still collect $7.5 million from the Rams for 2020, but was due for $10.5 million in roster bonuses if he remained with the Club into the new league year.
This set of circumstances left Gurley looking for a new home, and the Falcons, one of the teams reportedly inquiring about the back before his release, were a logical destination once he hit the open market.
But will the move pay off for Atlanta? How much does he have left in the tank? The deal is still pending a physical, but given the prior knowledge of the condition, he's probably likely to pass.
He will likely be eased into the fold and utilized similarly to how the Rams used him in 2019, playing the most important downs of the game and sharing the bulk workload with other backs, especially early in the season. Gurley did average 14.9 carries per game in 2019, but only 3.8 yards per carry.
The questions of how much he has left in the tank are fair, and while the one-year deal cuts out some of the risk for Atlanta, if he doesn't stay healthy they will be questioned for using their extremely limited cap space by taking a risk on Gurley's knee.
Perhaps the part of his game that will help the Falcons the most is his receiving out of the backfield. Gurley has 218 catches on 301 targets in his five seasons, though he did post a career-worst catch percentage of 63.3 in 2019. He also had the fewest catches since his rookie season, and the lowest yards per catch mark of his career (6.7).
It's entirely possible, likely even, that the superstar player Gurley was from 2016-18 is a thing of the past. The Falcons are buying low on someone they hope is a good player for 2020, and most certainly will not ask him to be the high usage player he was at his peak.
Gurley will join a running back group that will consist of Ito Smith Jr., Qadree Ollison and potentially Brian Hill, who is currently in restricted free agency but did receive a tender from the Falcons. The franchise could also elect to draft a running back at some point, while the Gurley move likely rules out them taking one in the first round.
The move will generate buzz, sell some of those new jerseys (whenever they finally come out), and hopefully provide Matt Ryan with another dangerous weapon. The club added Hayden Hurst earlier in the week following the departure of Austin Hooper, and will now likely turn to the NFL Draft to patch up the defense following the reported 3-year, $48 million agreement with Dante Fowler.
