New York Giants 2021 Record: Best- and Worst-Case Scenarios
After a productive off-season in which the New York Giants have added depth at just about every area of weakness from a year ago, there's a growing buzz coming from East Rutherford that the nearly decade-long dark period of poor football is about to end.
And why not? General manager Dave Gettleman delivered on a promise to upgrade the offense, adding receivers Kenny Golladay and Kadarius Toney and tight end Kyle Rudolph.
They are also getting back a healthy Saquon Barkley, who is a difference-maker in himself when healthy. And heck, they even feel good about their still young but improving offensive line.
But as Bill Parcells once said, "You are what your record says you are." The Giants, last year, were a 6-10 team that just fell short of winning a weak NFC East division title (which brings up another Parcells-ism, "There are no medals for trying.")
But the good news is the Giants did show enough progress from the beginning of the 2020 season to the end, which is the driving force behind the growing optimism.
Speaking of optimism, Pro Football Focus has predicted both the best- and worst-case scenario outcomes for every NFL team, and they have the Giants as taking a modest step forward in their best-case scenario, which PFF predicts as a 10-7 record.
New York’s young offensive line is much improved in 2021. That improvement, along with the additions of Kenny Golladay, Kadarius Toney, and Kyle Rudolph, puts Jones in a much better position than he has been in across his first two years. Remember, Jones graded better in 2020 (78.4) than his passing statistics would suggest.
Patrick Graham’s defense is the real star of the show. Adoree’ Jackson and a healthy Xavier McKinney give the Giants one of the deepest secondaries in the NFL with the returning pieces from last season. Dexter Lawrence continues to improve, as well. His pass-rushing grade rose from 64.5 as a rookie to 73.2 in 2020.
Last year, an argument could be made that the Giants defense kept the team in a lot of close games that just as easily could have gone the other way. With the upgrades made to the offensive skill position players and the expectations at quarterback and offensive line, it's not hard to see why there is optimism that the offense will contribute a lot more in terms of keeping the Giants competitive in its quest for a playoff berth.
The worst-case scenario has the Giants finishing one game worse than they did last season, at 5-11 (yikes!):
It becomes apparent that Daniel Jones isn’t the long-term solution at quarterback. The third-year quarterback doesn’t take enough downfield risks in the passing game, and his turnover-worthy play rate creeps back from 3.1% (2020) to 5.5% (2019). An offensive line that struggles to provide clean pockets doesn’t help matters for Jones. Only the New York Jets allowed pressure at a higher rate than the Giants did last season.
Pressure off the edge is New York’s biggest problem defensively. A collection of Azeez Ojulari, Ifeadi Odenigbo, Lorenzo Carter, and Oshane Ximines puts too much pressure on Leonard Williams and Dexter Lawrence to provide push from the interior.
The concerns behind the Giants not matching last year's six-win total all boil down to the three most significant question marks the team has going into training camp: the quarterback, the offensive line, and the pass rush.
But here's why you might want to hold off on pushing the panic button just yet. The offense not only had a full off-season to work on the plays and schemes, but this is Year 2 of the same system. Whereas last year sometimes the players looked hesitant in terms of what they were doing--and that showed in the overall play speed--they should be able to play a lot faster now as a whole.
The offensive line? The combination of having four players--Andrew Thomas, Nick Gates, Shane Lemieux, and Matt Peart--all taking live NFL snaps at their respective positions for the first time along with the instability they had in terms of their position coaching might have played a significant role in why that group at times looked lost. But Gettleman and head coach Joe Judge are counting on that unit to jell given its collective experience and stability in coaching.
And what about the pass rush, which hasn't exactly ranked at or near the top of the league in years? The Giants threw a lot of resources at that spot, starting with second-round pick Azeez Ojulari, who could end up the main man by the mid-point in the season.
Lorenzo Carter's participation in the spring OTAs and minicamp confirms that he's well ahead of schedule in his return from a torn Achilles, and that's a good thing considering that before his injury, Carter looked like he had finally figured out how to be a consistent pass-rush threat.
The rest of the crew--Oshane Ximines, Elerson Smith, and Ryan Anderson--will get their chances if he makes the roster. The Giants also have Leonard Williams returning. So there's plenty of reason to be optimistic that the Giants, whose 40 sacks last year, ranked 12th in the league despite losing three pass rushers (Carter, Ximines, and Kyler Fackrell) for parts of the season, can on what they started last year.
If you're unsure which way to lean when it comes to the Giants, it's probably fair to say that if everything clicks as expected and the team avoids the injury bug, a winning record and a postseason berth are very much within reach.
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