Latest Draft Order Projection Predicts Disappointing News for Giants

The Giants hold the first overall pick in the draft order as of now, but new projections cast doubt on whether that will be the case by season's end.

The New York Giants hold the first overall pick in the 2026 draft, but the chances of that being the case by the end of the year aren't very good, according to a new projection. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

For those who are currently viewing the New York Giants’ having the first overall pick in the draft as the ultimate consolation prize for what has been a disastrous season, the latest projections from The Athletic are sure to disappoint.

The Athletic, using its playoff simulator, gives the Giants a 9% chance of finishing the 2025 season with the first overall pick in the 2026 draft order. 

When one considers the easy schedule the Giants have in their remaining four games, such a forecast isn’t unrealistic.

This weekend, the Giants host the Washington Commanders, whose season has spiraled out of control on he heels of a 31-0 loss to the Vikings, their eighth straight loss, which is the longest losing streak in the NFL. 

Then the Vikings come into town the following week, followed by a road trip to Las Vegas to face a Raiders team that has also seen its season spiral out of control.

The Giants then wrap up this forgettable campaign with a home date against the 6-6-1 Cowboys, who actually have a chance to steal the NFC East title depending on what they do the rest of the way and whether the defending division (and Super Bowl) champion Eagles do with their remaining games.

The good news is that even if the Giants do lose out on the first overall pick, the simulator projects a 54% chance of the Giants getting a top-five pick and a 99% chance that they’ll get a top-ten pick.

Not that all of that is good news for Giants fans. New York has been picked in the top 10 of the draft order eight times since winning Super Bowl XLVI and in the top five in four of those seasons.

Under the current regime of general manager Joe Schoen, which began in 2022, the Giants have been in the top 10 in three of the four seasons, but have made four picks, including two in the top 10 in 2022. 

Of those top picks–lienbacker Kayvon Thibodeaux, tackle Evan Neal, receiver Malik Nabers, and linebacker Abdul Carter–Nabers and Thibodeaux have been solid performers for Big Blue, with Carter still trying to find his way and Neal a certified bust.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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