4 Jaguars to Watch in Week 10 Vs. the Packers
Each week this season, I’ll be highlighting a few specific Jacksonville Jaguars players that I’ll be keeping my eye on based on how they’ve played so far and how I expect them to play in the future.
With the Jaguars (1-7) coming off a close loss to the Houston Texans, there are several players worth tracking over the course of the week. Here is who I’ll be watching for in Week 10 against the Green Bay Packers.
Chris Conley, WR
Chris Conley is back, ladies and gentlemen! And by back, we simply mean he had one of the highest usage rates among Jaguars receivers last week against the Houston Texans.
Laviska Shenault ran just eight routes before leaving with a hamstring injury, and while head coach Doug Marrone is encouraged by the severity of Shenault’s injury, his game status for Sunday is questionable.
Conley took over Shenault’s snaps in his absence while Cole remained in the slot (you can read an analysis on Jacksonville’s Week 9 snap counts here). If Shenault is unable to go against the Green Bay Packers this week, Conley is likely to see the majority of passing game work behind only Chark once again.
Quarterback Jake Luton’s average depth of target (aDOT) last week was 8.5, a mark that Gardner Minshew surpassed in just five of 21 career games (his career average is 7.3). That’s certainly a small sample size for Luton, but he seemed able to push the ball downfield at a different velocity than Minshew ever has. If Shenault doesn’t play on Sunday, that would mean more snaps for Conley, who’s 11.6 aDOT is far greater than Shenault’s 5.6 aDOT and indicates that Luton could take more deep shots against a Green Bay pass defense that ranks 22nd in Football Outsiders’ DVOA.
If Shenault is a go, Luton’s aDOT will likely drop with him on the field, but it’s still worth looking for Conley and whatever deep throws Luton attempts throughout the game.
LT Cam Robinson
Fourth-year left tackle Cam Robinson had one of his finest games of the season against Houston, as he allowed zero pressures for just the fifth time in his career and the first time since last year’s Week 3. His 83.7 Pro Football Focus pass block grade was a season-best and ranked seventh among all tackles in Week 9.
Robinson benefited from playing against a depleted Texans linebacker group- most of his reps came against third-round rookie Jonathan Greenard, who had played just 11 NFL snaps before last week. This Sunday, Robinson will have a much tougher challenge against Green Bay Za’Darius Smith, who currently ranks eighth among edge defenders in PFF pass rush grade after ranking sixth in 2019 and 15th in 2018.
Luton held the ball for 2.5 seconds or more on 56.1% of his dropbacks last week, compared to Minshew’s season average of 49.5%. Luton kept the ball for a long time on some plays to buy time for receivers running deep routes- if he wishes to do the same on Sunday, Robinson will need to put together another big performance.
Davon Hamilton, DT
In the first six weeks of the season, rookie Davon Hamilton registered just nine tackles and three pressures while playing 32.3 defensive snaps per game. In the two weeks since, he’s exploded for five tackles and seven pressures while logging 45.5 snaps per game.
Hamilton’s 69.5 PFF grade in Week 3 was his only single-game grade above a 60 before he earned grades of 86.6 and 89.7 in Weeks 7 and 9, respectively. Each of those grades ranked sixth among all interior defensive lineman that week.
With the recent benching of Taven Bryan, the Jaguars needed support from its depth pieces, and it got it with the recent performances of Hamilton and Doug Costin (who also has two 85.0-plus PFF grades in Jacksonville’s last three games). Hamilton and co. will need to continue their pleasantly surprising play against Green Bay’s stout offensive line if the Jaguars have any chance of slowing down Aaron Rodgers.
SS Daniel Thomas
Strong safety Josh Jones drew his eighth start of the season last week against the Texans but played fewer than 60 defensive snaps for the second time. Both instances came against Houston, as Jones was ejected for a head-to-head hit in Week 5 and then rotated snaps with rookie Daniel Thomas in Week 9.
Thomas has flashed in his limited playing time, especially against the pass. Jones has allowed 18 of 19 passes to be completed for 197 yards and two touchdowns in coverage, while Thomas has allowed just one of three attempts to be completed for four yards. Jones’ 40.9 PFF coverage grade ranks 90th among 93 qualifying safeties this season, and Thomas’ 68.9 coverage grade would rank 23rd if he played enough snaps to qualify.
Considering that Jacksonville ranks 32nd against the pass but 21st against the run in DVOA, giving Thomas more playing time makes more sense- especially against Green Bay’s third-ranked passing offense. Davante Adams is undoubtedly the biggest receiving threat on the Packers, but assuming Thomas continues to earn snaps, his coverage against running back Aaron Jones and tight end Robert Tonyan, who rank eighth and 18th in PFF receiving grade among their respective positions, will be imperative to Jacksonville’s performance against Rodgers.
