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NFL Analytics Expert Explains Why Jets Should Pick Ahmad Gardner Fourth Overall

Cynthia Frelund of NFL Network has the Jets taking Cincinnati CB Ahmad "Sauce" Gardner fourth overall in her first mock draft of the offseason.

Max Goodman

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Will the Jets add another promising young cornerback in the 2022 NFL draft this spring?

We've seen the likes of LSU's Derek Stingley Jr. and Washington's Trent McDuffie heading to New York in other mock drafts this offseason. In this mock, however, the Jets go a different direction and add some Sauce to their secondary.

NFL Network analytics expert Cynthia Frelund has Gang Green picking Cincinnati's Ahmad "Sauce" Gardner fourth overall in the first round.

Frelund's mock draft is designed to help teams jump forward into win-now mode. Or as Frelund put it, "team-prospect pairings are based on optimizing for wins in the upcoming season." 

So, even for a team like the Jets that are likely a few years away from contention, Frelund believes Gardner would give them the best chance to accelerate their rebuild (over other available prospects like safety Kyle Hamilton or tackle Ikem Ekwonu).

With that said, here's Frelund's analysis on why Gardner is the right selection for the Jets.

4. New York Jets: Sauce Gardner, CB, Cincinnati

My colleague Daniel Jeremiah likens Gardner to Antonio Cromartie, who became a four-time Pro Bowler after coming out of FSU, and the comp holds well. Change-of-direction speeds for the two corners were in the 90th percentile, while DB body control (factors in efficient change of direction when moving toward the ball) ranked in the top 89th. Gardner’s pursuit speed (speed to tackle) was also a strength (top 85th percentile).

For those wondering, Frelund has Stingley Jr. going to the Vikings at No. 12 and McDuffie landing in Buffalo at No. 25. Florida's Kaiir Elam (Buccaneers) and Washington's Kyler Gordon (Chiefs) are the only other cornerbacks coming off the board in the first round in this mock. 

After adding a defensive back, Frelund has New York transitioning to the offensive line with their second first-rounder:

10. New York Jets (Via Seahawks): Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State

I realize that Mekhi Becton, the 2020 first-rounder who missed all but one game in 2021 with a knee injury, should be healthy and return to the lineup to try to take the left tackle spot back from George Fant. I also realize that Cross played on the left side at Mississippi State, and that it's not always easy to transition to the right. However, Becton and Fant both have some experience playing on the right, and this O-line needs help. My numbers show that Cross is evolving and has the opportunity to develop into a dominant pass protector. PFF's notes agree, showing that he made a major improvement in pressures allowed from 2020 (44 on 574 pass-protection snaps) to 2021 (16 on 719 snaps). 

Cross comes off the board after both Alabama's Evan Neal (No. 1 overall to Jaguars) and NC State's Ekwonu (No. 5 overall to Giants).

MORE:

Who Should the Jets Select Fourth Overall in the 2022 NFL Draft?

From Notre Dame's safety Kyle Hamilton to Oregon's pass rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux, here are seven prospects the Jets could pick at No. 4 overall in the 2022 NFL draft.

Kyle Hamilton, Safety, Notre Dame

Notre Dame safety Kyle Hamilton
Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports

New York could secure their safety of the future by picking Notre Dame’s Kyle Hamilton. The fourth overall selection might be a little high for a safety, but Hamilton is one of the top-ranked prospects from this draft class, a defensive back that has the versatility to play center field in the secondary or step up to stop the run in the box. The safety had eight interceptions over three years with the Fighting Irish and would be an immediate replacement for Marcus Maye if he departs in free agency.

Derek Stingley Jr., Cornerback, LSU

LSU cornerback Derek Stingley Jr.
SCOTT CLAUSE/USA TODAY Network via Imagn Content Services, LLC

Derek Stingley Jr. only played in three games in 2021 due to a foot injury, but his potential was on full display earlier in his career at LSU. As a freshman in 2019, the corner had six interceptions in 15 games. The injury concerns are certainly going to be factored in with a player like Stingley and not every first-round corner will be the next Darrelle Revis, but it’s hard to ignore the deficiencies in New York’s secondary. Stingley with Bryce Hall, Brandin Echols, Michael Carter II and more has the makings of a strong defensive back room heading into the 2022 season.

Evan Neal, Offensive Tackle, Alabama

Alabama offensive lineman Evan Neal blocking
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

There’s a good chance Evan Neal comes off the board before New York is on the clock at No. 4, but with Mekhi Becton’s future uncertain, this left tackle deserves a mention. General manager Joe Douglas has made it clear how much he loves to draft offensive linemen, building a strong unit up front to protect his rookie quarterback. Neal is viewed by many as the top-rated lineman in this class, a behemoth that has plenty of experience facing talented pass rushers from his time with the Crimson Tide. 

Aidan Hutchinson, Defensive End, Michigan

Michigan pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson on defensive line
Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

Speaking of prospects that likely won’t be available fourth overall, Michigan’s Aidan Hutchinson may very well be the best player in this draft class. Hutchinson racked up 14 sacks and 16.5 tackles for loss in 2021, finishing his four years at Michigan with 17.5 sacks and 27.5 tackles for loss. There’s always a chance a player like Hutchinson could slip down a few selections (if some quarterbacks come off the board early or other teams draft based on their internal needs). Head coach Robert Saleh is surely crossing his fingers that a defensive lineman of Hutchinson’s caliber will be available.

Kayvon Thibodeaux, Defensive End, Oregon

Oregon DE Kayvon Thibodeaux celebrates stop
Chris Pietsch / USA TODAY NETWORK

Alright, one more player that’s expected to be selected within the top three selections of the NFL draft. Oregon’s Kayvon Thibodeaux also produced some monster numbers in college, sacking the quarterback 19 times and recording 35.5 tackles for loss over three seasons with the Ducks. Again, odds are Thibodeaux, Hutchinson and Neal will come off the board before the Jets have a chance to pick at No. 4, but one quarterback or one surprise selection would give New York a shot to draft one of those top-ranked prospects. Saleh and Douglas would certainly pounce at an opportunity to add a high-upside pass rusher to their defensive front that already includes Carl Lawson, John Franklin-Myers and Quinnen Williams.

George Karlaftis, Defensive End, Purdue

Purdue edge rusher George Karlaftis
Nikos Frazier / USA TODAY NETWORK

Even if Hutchinson and Thibodeaux are unavailable fourth overall, there’s another edge rusher that the Jets could select. George Karlaftis had 29 tackles for loss and 14 sacks over 26 career games at Purdue, wreaking havoc up front for the Boilermakers. If New York is set on bolstering their pass rush early in the first round, Karlaftis would be a tremendous addition. Place a stud like Karlaftis in Saleh’s scheme and he’s bound to recognize his potential at the next level. 

Ikem Ekwonu, Offensive Tackle, NC State

NC State tackle Ikem Ekwonu blocking
Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports

While some view Neal as the best tackle in this class, others are picking NC State’s Ikem Ekwonu as their LT1 in 2022. The offensive lineman is dominant in the run game, another option to either replace Becton on the left side or provide more protection for Zach Wilson at another spot up front. Sure, Ekwonu could be an option for the Jets 10th overall, but he could also be the first offensive lineman off the board if teams fall in love with his power, technique and upside.

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Max Goodman
MAX GOODMAN

Max Goodman covers the New York Jets for Sports Illustrated and FanNation. He also covers the New York Yankees, publisher  of Sports Illustrated and FanNation's Yankees site, Inside The Pinstripes. Before starting out with SI, Goodman attended Northwestern University and the Medill School of Journalism. He earned his Bachelor’s Degree in Broadcast Journalism and Master’s Degree in Sports Media, graduating in 2019. While at school, Goodman gathered valuable experience as an anchor and reporter on NNN SportsNight and played on the club baseball team. Goodman previously interned at MLB.com as an associate reporter covering the Miami Marlins. He also interned with ESPN, working as an associate reporter on Mike Greenberg's Get Up. Goodman is from New York City. He grew up in Hell's Kitchen. Follow Goodman on Twitter @MaxTGoodman and connect with him via email by reaching out at maxgoodmansports@gmail.com.

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