Jets Must Capitalize if Kayvon Thibodeaux Falls
Every NFL Draft cycle sees a top player fall down the board. Whether it’s as drastic as Myles Jack’s slide all the way out of the first round, or as slight as Penei Sewell’s fall from a surefire top three pick down to the Lions at seventh overall, it’s bound to happen to one of the big names.
The draft process is still in its early stages, but there are already signs that Oregon edge rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux might be that guy come late April. Thibodeaux, who was the consensus top overall pick throughout the entire last season — barring a quarterback breakout that never occurred from a scouting perspective — has now been passed by Michigan defensive end Aidan Hutchinson.
But Hutchinson isn’t the only one who has leapfrogged Thibodeaux, at least in the eyes of several prominent scouts and pundits. Thibodeaux is routinely mocked below guys like Evan Neal, Ikem Ekwonu, Charles Cross and Kyle Hamilton.
So what does that mean for the New York Jets, who hold the No. 4 overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft?
For starters, it means a player nobody expected to be on the board a few months ago just might be in play for Gang Green. A conversation hardly worth having is all of a sudden pushed to the forefront. If Thibodeaux is on the board at No. 4, do the Jets pull the trigger?
Several experts do believe Thibodeaux will be playing his football at Metlife Stadium next year. However, those experts expect him to be donning blue, not green. When Fox Sports’ “The Herd” host Colin Cowherd was asked on his podcast about the most interesting conversation he had with a draft prospect, he was quick to reference Thibodeaux. “He thinks he’s going to the New York Giants,” Cowherd said.
If Thibodeaux is available at four, the Jets need to make sure that doesn’t happen. Simply put, they can’t possibly turn in the card fast enough.
READ: Is Kayvon Thibodeaux the Jets’ Pass Rusher of the Future?
The NFL Draft process is long and arduous, and teams have ample time to overthink things, to talk themselves out of the solutions that have become conforming over the prior months. Allowing Thibodeaux to slip down the board would likely be an example of that in several front offices.
The sophomore out of Westlake Village, California was the top prospect in the country coming out of high school back in 2019. When he burst onto the scene at Oregon that fall, he cemented himself as the frontrunner to be the first non-quarterback off the board the moment he became draft-eligible. From that time until the moment he stopped playing in early December, that hadn’t waivered. Only when the lights went out on the 2021 season did anything change. Thibodeaux was the best prospect in the country playing arguably the second most important position in football, one that has been a need for the New York Jets for more than a decade.
He also checks off every box of what NFL teams should be looking for in an edge rusher. From a size perspective, he was made in a lab at 6-foot-5, 258 pounds. Couple that with his athleticism and it’s not hard to tell that he is head and shoulders better than everyone he is playing with and against. His speed around the edge is next-level. He’s often a full yard ahead of his fellow pass rushers just half a second after the ball is snapped. Watch him burst through the line and lay out Fresno State quarterback Jake Haener before he can even get to his second read:
Thibodeaux has the rare ability to win with regularity off the edge because of his bend at top speed. When he can get a step on tackles and dip under their arms to keep his center of gravity low without sacrificing balance, he can wreck games like no other defensive player in this class, something he has been doing for three years at Oregon.
There are a handful of starting NFL tackles that won’t be able to stay with him when he’s operating on that level. He will wreck those games and force double teams away from interior linemen like Quinnen Williams, who has been victimized by them early and often in his career.
Of course, Thibodeaux is more than just a one-trick pony. He uses his speed to counter inside, showing off an arsenal of pass rush moves that has become incredibly refined over his time in Eugene. When those don’t work, he can just as easily bull-rush tackles to blow up plays in the backfield. Watch him dominate California left tackle Will Craig with his athleticism.
On top of it all, Thibodeaux is a legitimate force against the run, a must-have for a Jets unit that was 29th in football against the run last season. He ranked third amongst Power Five edge rushers in tackles for loss or no gain over since he started his career in 2019, per Pro Football Focus.
Critics of Thibodeaux will knock his effort, the hearsay that has ripped through NFL circles as of late. Nobody is on the record with this criticism, and there doesn’t seem to be anything in his tape that suggests that he is, in fact, “taking plays off.” Largely, these are buzzwords. They shouldn’t move the needle. The last premier pass rusher who supposedly “took plays off” in college was Myles Garrett. He looks just fine in the NFL.
If Thibodeaux was taking plays off and was still able to coast to the level of production he achieved at Oregon, then the sky is really the limit in the NFL.
Thibodeaux isn’t just the best prospect in the draft, though. He’s a better fit than anyone else the Jets could possibly select at No. 4. Derek Stingley Jr. and Sauce Gardner don’t seem to be the likely choice if the Douglas regime or draft projections suggest anything. Neither does Kyle Hamilton after the Jamal Adams debacle, no matter how hybridized Hamilton’s play style might be. That leaves the offensive tackles.
If the Jets go tackle at four, they’re either replacing Becton and prematurely admitting a failure of the first pick of the Douglas era or they’re kicking that tackle into right guard for the first season and using him as a replacement in the event of injury or poor performance down the road. The first is unlikely and irresponsible. The second is a poor positional valuation. What makes more sense with a top five pick? A guard/contingency plan at tackle or a game-changing pass rusher? The Jets can take Tyler Linderbaum at 10 or someone like Zion Johnson at 35. They’ll only get one chance at a Kayvon Thibodeaux.
If they are fortunate enough to get it, they can’t let it slip.
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