Packers vs. Rams: Three Reasons for Optimism

The Green Bay Packers need to beat the Los Angeles Rams to keep their playoff hopes are alive. Here are three reasons why they’ll make it happen on Monday night.

Author:
Bill Huber
Publish date:
Dec 19, 2022 3:24 PM EST

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Green Bay Packers

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers are 7.5-point favorites for Monday night’s game against the Los Angeles Rams. As well they should. They have more to play for, the healthier roster and the weather.

Here are three reasons why the Packers will earn a key victory and stay in the NFC playoff chase for at least another week.

Weakness vs. Weakness

In the land of cheese, Green Bay’s run defense is made of Swiss.

The Packers rank 30th in the NFL with 154.8 rushing yards allowed per game and 5.04 yards allowed per carry. They’ve allowed a league-worst eight games of 150-plus rushing yards compared to 11 the last three years combined.

Fortunately for Green Bay, Cam Akers isn’t Miles Sanders, Baker Mayfield isn’t Jalen Hurts and the Rams’ offensive line isn’t the Eagles’ group.

In 11 games, Akers leads the Rams with 376 rushing yards. He’s averaging only 3.3 yards per carry and doesn’t have a run of longer than 15 yards. The Rams are 30th in rushing per game (86.1) and per carry (3.68). It’s a big reason why they’re 31st in total offense (283.0) and last in yards per play (4.67).

So long as the Packers don’t let Akers turn into in-his-prime Eric Dickerson, the stage could be set for a feeding frenzy on defense because the Rams are second-to-last in sacks allowed per game and Mayfield has a history of throwing the ball to the wrong team.

“If you really look at every game that we have played poorly in, it’s the five to six to seven explosion plays that we’ve given up, whether we’ve allowed the ball to be thrown over our head or we’ve missed a tackle in front of us and the guy’s been able to run,” defensive coordinator Joe Barry said. “When we play good, we have great eyes, we play one play at a time, we don’t allow the ball to be run through us or thrown over our head. When we play well, we do those things and that was definitely the message this week,”

No Aaron Donald, Cooper Kupp

Great players win games. Always have, always will.

The Rams have one of the greatest individual defenders in NFL history with Aaron Donald. In his first eight NFL seasons, he was selected to eight Pro Bowls and seven consecutive All-Pro teams. Donald led the NFL in sacks in 2018 and tackles for losses in 2019, part of a streak of five consecutive seasons of 11-plus sacks. He dominates the run and pass. He wins with quickness and strength. He intimidates and destroys game plans.

“He’s a Hall of Famer,” quarterback Aaron Rodgers said. “He’s one of the top interior linemen to play in the league, definitely top three in my generation. He’s a generational-type player where he could be dominant in any generation of football – a unique skill-set, a phenomenal player and he’s a game-wrecker.

The Rams have arguably the best receiver in the NFL in Cooper Kupp, who was coming off one of the greatest individual seasons of all-time with his 145 receptions for 1,947 yards and 16 touchdowns. The Rams are 7-0 when he has 130-plus receiving yards and 8-0 when he scores multiple touchdowns.

Neither will play due to ankle injuries. Quarterback Matthew Stafford and receiver Allen Robinson are out, too. If the Packers can’t take advantage, then there should be mass firings immediately.

This Is Packers Weather

It’s going to be cold. Just not super-cold. And that’s good news for the Packers.

In games with a kickoff temperature of 32 degrees or colder, Aaron Rodgers is 29-11. However, when it’s 15 degrees or colder, he’s only 4-4. So, there appears to be a Goldilocks zone of cold but not too cold. The Monday night forecast has a kickoff temperature of 16 and warming just a bit as the night progresses.

“I think anytime the weather gets cold and the field gets cold, naturally guys don’t move maybe at the same speed,” Rodgers said. “I feel like on our field, too, we have the advantage. We know where we’re going on a wet, cold field. That’s always been an advantage. Throwing the football has been an advantage for us in the weather, as well. I can’t put a specific finger on it. Most of us are not from here, but we just get a little bit better used to being in the cold I think because we practice outside.”

The Rams haven’t even played in a cold-weather game for three decades. Their last game with a kickoff temperature of 20 or colder was a 28-13 loss at Green Bay in 1992. It was 11 that day with a wind chill of minus-4.

“I think a lot of it is mind-set,” coach Matt LaFleur said. “Is there some physical affects? Probably. I think the biggest advantage would be you get a chance to practice in the weather that you’re potentially playing in.”