10 Questions With 100 Days Until Packers Start Season
GREEN BAY, Wis. – In exactly 100 days, the Green Bay Packers will kick off the 2023 NFL season at the Chicago Bears.
With Jordan Love replacing Aaron Rodgers, this may or may not be a rebuilding season. At FanDuel Sportsbook, Green Bay’s over/under win total is just 7.5 and “no” is a significant favorite on whether the Packers will return to the playoffs. However, strength of schedule could work in Green Bay’s favor.
If the Packers are going to beat the odds, they’ll need affirmative answers on these 10 questions.
1. Is Jordan Love any good?
This, of course, is the most important question. The offensive line should be good. The running game should be effective. The talent is there on defense. With three years of training, is Jordan Love good enough to be that final piece that pushes the team into the postseason?
A cautionary tale: In 2008, Aaron Rodgers in his debut season finished fourth with 4,038 passing yards and 28 touchdowns and sixth with a 93.8 passer rating. The Packers finished 6-10, anyway. Why? During the fourth quarters of those 10 losses, Rodgers completed 54.0 percent of his passes with four touchdowns vs. five interceptions. Overall, Rodgers had a really good first season. When it mattered, he was not good enough. For most quarterbacks, it takes time to win.
2. Will AJ Dillon be money in a contract year?
On paper, Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon should form a top running back duo. Jones, as usual, was excellent in 2022. He set a career high with 1,121 rushing yards and approached career highs with a 5.3-yard average on runs and 1,516 total yards.
Dillon, however, is coming off a disappointing third season. His 4.1-yard average was 1.2 yards worse than Jones’ mark. He didn’t break enough tackles. He dropped too many passes.
Contract years tend to bring out the best in players. Dillon has shown he can be a top back in stretches. Now, he needs to put it all together and consistently play to his ability.
3. Is Christian Watson really a No. 1 receiver?
Over the final eight games of his rookie season, no receiver in the NFL could match Christian Watson’s seven touchdown catches. In the biggest game of the season, the do-or-die finale against Detroit, the offense as a whole died but Watson caught 5-of-6 passes for 104 yards.
The assumption is Watson will be Green Bay’s next second-round star, following in the footsteps of Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb and Davante Adams. Watson needs to be much more consistent, though. His three 100-yard games were also his three 50-yard games. A full offseason with Love should build the type of chemistry that explained why Rodgers preferred throwing the ball to Allen Lazard.
There’s no reason why Watson shouldn’t dominate. But, for now, it’s all projection.
4. Do the Packers have an impact tight end?
Rookie tight ends usually don’t make much of an impact. For this offense to get anywhere near its potential, the Packers will need second-round pick Luke Musgrave and/or third-round pick Tucker Kraft to make significant contributions.
Last season, Robert Tonyan caught 53-of-67 passes (a robust 79.1 percent) for 470 yards and two touchdowns. Coming off a torn ACL, Tonyan wasn’t great but he still almost caught more passes than the top two rookies in Packers history combined (Bubba Franks, 34; Andrew Quarless, 21).
Musgrave has been impressive in his two shorts-and-helmets practices. “He is different,” coach Matt LaFleur said this week. Will he be different when the pads are on and the hitting is real?
5. Is David Bakhtiari truly healthy?
After missing the 2020 playoffs, most of 2021 and the start of 2022 due to his three-times-repaired knee, David Bakhtiari is feeling strong and confident.
“Let’s not jinx it out now. I’m feeling pretty good,” he said this week.
Yosh Nijman played well in Bakhtiari’s place but a healthy Bakhtiari is one of the best in the business. If the Packers can avoid last year’s giant game of musical chairs and let a talented group settle in, the line could be one of the league’s top units. That, obviously, would help Love.
6. Can Joe Barry lead a winning defense?
With eight first-round draft picks filling the depth charts, Green Bay’s defense by draft pedigree is one of the best in the NFL. By results, it’s not. The Packers last season finished 17th in points allowed, 28th in yards allowed per play, 28th in rushing yards allowed per play and 28th in passing yards allowed per play.
Defensive coordinator Joe Barry kept his job, anyway, because the unit finished the season on a strong note. Over the last five games, it never allowed more than 20 points. Did Barry find a winning formula?
Yes, Jordan Love will be under a microscope this year. So will Barry. The first nine games are against Chicago, Atlanta, New Orleans, Detroit, Las Vegas, Denver, Minnesota, the Rams and Pittsburgh. Five of those teams were among the 11 that failed to score 20 points per game last year. The only top-10 offenses, the Vikings and Lions, will play at Lambeau. If the Packers aren’t in the Top 10 through Week 9, heads should roll.
7. Will Rashan Gary be dominant in 2023?
Don’t be surprised to see Rashan Gary on the field for Week 1 at Soldier Field. Gary is just different. But ACLs are different, too. It’s really a two-year injury, with a return to action following one year and a return to peak performance the second year.
The pass rush evaporated following Gary’s injury. The addition of first-round pick Lukas Van Ness should help but Gary is Gary. He’s the one guy on the defensive front that moves the needle. Will he be a game-wrecker for Week 1 of this season? Or will that have to wait until Week 1 of next season?
8. Is the defensive line stout enough vs. the run?
Lowlighted by a pathetic performance at Philadelphia, Green Bay’s run defense was absolutely terrible last season. So, maybe replacing Dean Lowry and Jarran Reed with Devonte Wyatt and TJ Slaton will be an upgrade. Maybe Jonathan Ford and rookies Colby Wooden and Karl Brooks will provide quality depth.
Who knows, though? The prospect of a rough-and-tumble run defense seems to be more wishing and hoping than anything concrete. Really, is there any reason to believe Wyatt will be a high-quality run defender? That Ford can contribute after playing zero snaps as a rookie? That 275 pounds of Wooden can hold off a double team?
9. Do the Packers have two safeties?
There’s an adage in football that states if you have two quarterbacks, you don’t have any. If you have eight safeties, do you have two?
Darnell Savage is coming off a miserable season and has a lot to prove. He’ll be one of the starters.
He is joined by Rudy Ford, who played well in spurts last season and was re-signed in free agency, Dallin Leavitt, a leader on special teams who was re-signed in free agency, Jonathan Owens and Tarvarius Moore, who were signed in free agency, former undrafted free agent Innis Gaines, seventh-round pick Anthony Johnson and undrafted free agent Benny Sapp.
Taking Savage out of the financial equation, the other seven players have a combined cap charge of $7.29 million. That’s less than the dead-money charge left behind by former starter Adrian Amos.
10. Can someone make a clutch field goal?
Father Time finally outkicked Mason Crosby. Crosby’s leg might have lost its oomph, but he was reliable, clutch and could handle the Lambeau Field cold.
Will Green Bay’s new kicker – at the moment, only rookie Anders Carlson is under contract – be able to make a 45-yard field goal on the final play of a game the Packers are losing by two points? Will he be able to handle the Wisconsin winter?
Never mind those questions. Can Carlson make the run-of-the-mill kicks after converting better than 72.0 percent in only one of five seasons at Auburn?
The Packers had to move on at some point. Doing so at the same time they’re replacing Aaron Rodgers makes a lot of sense. But just like Packers fans are spoiled by elite quarterback play, they’re also spoiled by quality kickers.
“It’s going to take some time,” said Carlson’s personal coach, Jamie Kohl. “If he can make it through the early storm, he’s got a chance to be a really good player. Really good player.”
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