Superbook Picks Packers In Only Five Games
GREEN BAY, Wis. – As vice president of risk management at the Superbook sportsbook in Las Vegas, Ed Salmons is part of the team that sets NFL point spreads, Super Bowl odds and the like.
With Jordan Love replacing Aaron Rodgers as the Green Bay Packers’ quarterback in 2023, Salmons thought back to 2013, when Rodgers was out with a broken collarbone and replaced by Seneca Wallace.
“Everyone always talks about which quarterback is worth the most for the point spread. It’s very subjective,” Salmons said. “What we think as oddsmakers is judged by the bettors who actually bet the money.”
Every week following Rodgers’ injury in 2013, Superbook adjusted its point spread.
“And every week, the wise guys would bet the Packers,” Salmons recalled. “Every week. It was like religion to them. They were betting the Packers because they believed that our adjustment was too much and they believed that the Packers’ backup quarterbacks were better than what we gave them credit for. You’ll see that sometimes.”
Superbook recently posted lines for every game in the 2023 NFL season. The Packers are favored in only five. With Rodgers worth seven points, they were favored in 12 games at this time last year.
After opening as road underdogs against the Chicago Bears and Atlanta Falcons, the Packers are 1.5-point favorites for Love’s first home start against the New Orleans Saints in Week 3. The Packers also are home favorites against the Minnesota Vikings, Los Angeles Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Chicago Bears.
Green Bay is an underdog in all nine road games.
Most of the lines are close, though. Given the great unknown that is Love, Salmons used the word “guesstimate” a couple times.
The Packers are a six-point underdog at the Kansas City Chiefs – the defending Super Bowl champions with one of the best homefield advantages in the NFL – and a 4.5-point underdog at the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving. On the other hand, they are underdogs of three points or less in seven games.
“When you look at those point spreads and you’re plus-1, plus-2, if you watch a team play for three weeks and they’re much better than you think, those plus-2 1/2s become minus-3 1/2s real quick,” Salmons said.
“So, people get a little carried away that they’re a dog in 12 of 17 games but that can change so fast. Look at the Rams last year. This time last year, they were probably favored in 12 of 17 games. You get a couple injuries and, all of a sudden, they’re an underdog in 16 of 17 games. There’s such a fine line in this league between being a great team, being a mediocre team or just being a lousy team. It’s just so close.”
While favored in only five games, Green Bay’s over/under is 7.5 wins.
For years, Las Vegas has made a financial killing on the Packers, with their legion of fans descending on the sportsbook and picking the team to win the Super Bowl, only to see their beloved team fall short in the playoffs.
With no consensus on whether Love will be good, bad or somewhere in between, the Lions have replaced the Packers as the apple of the bettors’ eye. The Lions are the pick in 12 of 17 games and the heavy favorite to win the NFC North.
“I would definitely say this year Green Bay has seen the least support,” Salmons said. “Usually they’re a very public team where the Midwesterners always come to Las Vegas and bet the Packers to win the Super Bowl. The Packers have always been very public; this year, it’s nonexistent. They’re in love with Detroit. The perception is just so high.”
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