NFC North Insiders: Free Agency Edition

What’s going on around the NFC North through one week of free agency? Packer Central’s Bill Huber discusses with his division colleagues.

Author:
Bill Huber
Publish date:
Mar 20, 2023 12:18 PM EDT

In this story:

Green Bay Packers

GREEN BAY, Wis. – There have been 21 champions crowned since the four-team NFC North debuted in 2002. The Green Bay Packers have won 12 titles. The Minnesota Vikings (five, including 2022), Chicago Bears (four) and Detroit Lions (zero) have combined for nine.

The winds of change are blowing through the North like the type of icy-cold Arctic breeze that sends the wind chill toward minus-30. The Lions are the consensus favorites to win the North at sportsbooks. The Packers have the consensus longest odds.

The combination of last year’s five-win plunge in the standings, the forthcoming trade of four-time MVP quarterback Aaron Rodgers, salary-cap problems and a quiet free agency has Green Bay viewed as a team on the decline.

Detroit, on the other hand, ended last season by winning eight of its final 10 games. Building upon that momentum, it’s been active in free agency and has the No. 6 and No. 18 picks in the first round of next month’s NFL Draft.

While the Lions have completely remodeled their cornerback corps and the Bears acquired a premier receiver and a top tandem of linebackers, the Packers … well, they signed a long snapper.

With the first week of free agency complete and the draft a little more than one month away, let’s take the pulse of the NFC North with our division colleagues: Will Ragatz of Inside the Vikings, Gene Chamberlain of Bears Digest and John Maakaron of All Lions.

Green Bay Packers

Robert Tonyan signed a one-year contract with the Bears. (All photos by USA Today Sports Images)

Signed: S Tarvarius Moore, LS Matt Orzech.

Lost: WR Allen Lazard (Jets), TE Robert Tonyan (Bears), DT Jarran Reed (Seahawks), DT Dean Lowry (Vikings).

Best Signing/Re-Signing: It’s a short list, making this easy. The most important player to retain was cornerback Keisean Nixon, who got his first opportunity as the kickoff returner in Week 6 and turned in an All-Pro season. After averaging an NFL-high 28.8 yards on kickoff returns along with 12.7 yards on punts, he was retained on a one-year deal. Who knows how the offense is going to function with Jordan Love, but at least he’ll get some good field position.

Biggest Loss: It’s the totality of losing defensive tackles Reed and Lowry. It’s not as if they were great or irreplaceable. Rather, it’s the giant crater left behind. Kenny Clark is back to lead the defensive line. He’ll be joined by Devonte Wyatt, last year’s first-round pick who flashed a bit late in the year, and T.J. Slaton, who’s been a valuable role player. Nobody else on the depth chart has ever played in a game.

Biggest Hole: A case could be made that it’s the defensive line, a unit where it truly is strength in numbers. But let’s switch gears and go with tight end. Along with losing Tonyan, venerable Marcedes Lewis is a free agent, too. All that’s left are Josiah Deguara, who is more of a fullback than a tight end, Tyler Davis, who was pretty good on special teams, and a couple practice-squad guys. Fortunately, a good draft class awaits.

Are Packers Better or Worse?: Worse – and probably considerably worse. Putting aside the quarterback drama, it’s clear they’re using 2023 as a financial reset. Even had they kept one of their defensive linemen, that would have been a draft need. Even had they kept Tonyan, they would have needed a tight end. Now, those are positions demanding a premium investment – joining the list of outside linebacker, receiver, safety and offensive tackle that could use an instant-impact draft pick.

Detroit Lions

Signed: S/CB Chauncey Gardner-Johnson (pictured), CB Cam Sutton, CB Emmanuel Moseley, RB David Montgomery, OL Graham Glasgow.

Lost: S DeShon Elliott (Dolphins), RB Jamaal Williams (Saints), OL Evan Brown (Seahawks), LB Chris Board (Patriots).

Best signing/re-signing: Chauncey Gardner-Johnson will bring a veteran presence and proven experience to a struggling Lions defense. He’s versatile enough to play in the slot or at safety. Acquired by the Eagles last year, the veteran defensive back was tied for the NFL lead with six interceptions. Signing a prove-it deal will give the 25-year-old added motivation to have a stellar campaign in 2023. Together with the signing of Cam Sutton, who allowed a 44.4 completion percentage last year, Detroit’s secondary has become a strength.

Biggest loss: It hurt Detroit fans to see Jamaal Williams sign with the New Orleans Saints. He had a career year in 2022 and broke the franchise record for touchdowns in a single season. As a leader in the locker room, he will be deeply missed. Signing David Montgomery is by no means a bad contingency plan, but the impact that Williams had in the locker room will be tough to replace.

Biggest hole: The Lions have been aggressive in filling their needs through free agency. However, one area that remains unsatisfied is the backup quarterback spot behind Jared Goff. The decision to not add one before that group was wiped out in the first week of free agency might mean general manager Brad Holmes will be looking to the draft. Goff is set in stone as the starter, but the backup plan doesn’t bring much confidence.

Are Lions Better or Worse? Clearly better. The signings of Gardner-Johnson, Sutton and Emmanuel Moseley make the secondary deeper. Their only losses were Williams, with Montgomery being a statistical upgrade, and DeShon Elliott, with Gardner-Johnson being a clear upgrade. Adding guard Graham Glasgow to compete at right guard doesn’t hurt, either. The mix of outside signings and commitments to returning players has made Detroit deeper while raising the talent level of the organization heading into a pivotal 2023 season in which the goal is to turn potential into playoffs.

Chicago Bears

Signed: LB Tremaine Edmunds (pictured), LB T.J. Edwards, DE/DT DeMarcus Walker, TE Robert Tonyan, DT Andrew Billings, RB D'Onta Foreman, RB Travis Homer, G Nate Davis, QB PJ Walker.

Lost: RB David Montgomery (Lions).

Best Signing/Re-Signing: The biggest wasn't a signing but the trade netting WR DJ Moore. That gives them a No. 1 option who had three consecutive years of more than 1,100 receiving yards while playing with bad QBs in Carolina. Edmunds is the best signing, a linebacker with speed, height and coverage ability who can be deployed several ways. They were one of the league's worst short-pass coverage defenses last year, and both Edmonds and Edwards were among the top linebackers in the league in QB rating against when targeted.

Biggest Loss: Running back David Montgomery was the heart and soul of the offense the last four years and, especiall,y before Justin Fields took over. He also didn't seem an ideal fit for their wide-zone blocking scheme and is a back probably best suited for inside or split zone. His lack of flat-out speed was a drawback on stretch plays in this offense. They'll definitely miss his pass blocking and receiving skills besides leadership and effort.

Biggest Hole: Ironically, it's exactly what it was when they started this – defensive line and offensive tackle. They only partially addressed defensive line issues. Their edge rush is only slightly better. They need a three-technique on defense, although Walker can be both an end and three. They have no starting-caliber right tackle on offense, although Larry Borom and Alex Leatherwood have played there in the past. They can't let Fields get sacked 55 times again.

Are Bears Better or Worse?: Much better but not good enough. Moore is a versatile threat and can be a run-after-the-catch guy. They have been last in the league two straight years at YAC. They needed linebackers, so that definitely helped. Missed tackles and simply not getting into position to make them was a problem for the 31st-ranked run defense. The addition of Billings, Edmunds and Edwards goes a long way toward fixing that unit, as the Bears had been using undrafted linebackers following last year’s trade of Roquan Smith. But they need a few more defensive linemen and, in particular, they need pass rushers as they were last in sacks and do not use a scheme emphasizing the blitz.

Minnesota Vikings

Signed: CB Byron Murphy, OLB Marcus Davenport, TE Josh Oliver, DT Dean Lowry (pictured).

Lost: LB Eric Kendricks (Chargers), CB Patrick Peterson (Steelers), WR Adam Thielen (Jets), DT Dalvin Tomlinson (Browns).

Best Signing/Re-Signing: The Davenport addition has a chance to be a very impactful one, but the answer here is Murphy. The 25-year-old ex-Cardinal was one of the top cornerbacks on the market, and the Vikings landed him at a reasonable price on a two-year deal. Murphy can play outside and inside and will bring an impressive combination of coverage ability, ball skills and run support. He feels like a perfect addition for Brian Flores' defense. Plus, Murphy's age (unlike Patrick Peterson) fits right in with the Vikings' long-term timeline.

Biggest Loss: With Kendricks, Peterson and Thielen on the wrong side of 30, the biggest loss has been Tomlinson, who is in the back end of his prime at 29. He quietly had been a very important player for Minnesota over the past two seasons, eating up blocks and gaps in run defense and showing some pass-rush juice at times. Tomlinson, who the Vikings just couldn't quite afford, is a big addition for the Browns. The Vikings will be counting on Lowry and a couple others to step up at defensive tackle.

Biggest Hole: Wide receiver. Thielen has lost a step, but he was a capable WR2. His 30 receiving touchdowns over the past three seasons trailed only four players in the league. Now that he's in Carolina, the Vikings' options to complement Justin Jefferson are K.J. Osborn, Jalen Reagor and 2022 sixth-rounder Jalen Nailor. Even if T.J. Hockenson is going to serve as the Vikings' No. 2 target in the passing game, they need to add another quality player on the outside — ideally one who can stretch the field.

Are Vikings Better or Worse?: A little bit better ... for now. Murphy is a slight upgrade over Peterson in Flores' scheme, Davenport is a great buy-low pass rusher due to his athleticism and pressure rate, and Oliver is one of the best run-blocking tight ends in football. Adding Lowry to help replace Tomlinson made sense, too. There have been some notable losses, but they're mostly aging players. Second-year LB Brian Asamoah should be ready to step right in for Kendricks. Minnesota also retained some key pieces, including S Harrison Smith, C Garrett Bradbury and RB Alexander Mattison. Still, there are some pending questions that will tell us a lot, most notably possible trades involving Za'Darius Smith and Dalvin Cook. If both are gone, my answer to this question might change.