NFL Draft Delivers Swing in NFC North Odds

Sure, draft grades are irrelevant. But the projected draft impact moved the odds to win the NFC North.

Author:
Bill Huber
Publish date:
May 5, 2023 8:27 AM EDT

In this story:

GREEN BAY, Wis. – With first-round busts and seventh-round surprises, the NFL Draft is a crapshoot. Nonetheless, the Green Bay Packers received high marks for their 13-man class – a fact that has impacted the sports gambling world.

Green Bay had the fifth-best draft in the 16-team NFC, according to Sports Illustrated’s Gilberto Manzano.

While that might not be great, it could be a big deal in the NFC North. The Packers finished ahead of the Minnesota Vikings (seventh), Chicago Bears (ninth) and Detroit Lions (12th).

Critically, given the alarming lack of depth and talent at receiver and tight end entering the draft, the Packers used a second-round pick on tight end Luke Musgrave, a second-round pick on receiver Jayden Reed and a third-round pick on tight end Tucker Kraft.

Plus, first-round pick Lukas Van Ness should provide sudden impact alongside Rashan Gary and Preston Smith.

The Lions – the rising power in the NFC – made a couple questionable picks with Jahmyr Gibbs instead of Bijan Robinson at running back in the first round and Sam LaPorta instead of Michael Mayer at tight end in the second round.

Detroit did land safety Brian Branch in the second round with the pick acquired in a trade with the Packers.

While draft grades and rookie projections are irrelevant, there was a sizable move in the NFC North odds at FanDuel Sportsbook following the draft.

In odds that debuted at the start of March, the Lions were +180 to win the NFC North, followed by the Packers at +260, Vikings at +300 and Bears at +350.

About 10 days later, following the Bears’ blockbuster trade of the No. 1 overall pick and with the Aaron Rodgers trade winds blowing like a hurricane, the Lions shortened to +145, the Vikings and Bears moved to +280 and +300, respectively, and the Packers plunged to +410.

Following the draft, Green Bay is back in the No. 2 spot. The Lions remain a strong favorite at +140. They are followed by the Packers at +330, Vikings at +350 and Bears at +350.