Playoff Matchups: Aaron Jones-Led Packers vs. 49ers Run Defense
GREEN BAY, Wis. – As Aaron Jones goes, so go the Green Bay Packers.
The Packers enter Saturday night’s playoff game at the San Francisco 49ers on a four-game winning streak. It’s obviously no coincidence that the streak has coincided with the best run of Jones’ fabulous career.
In NFL history, according to Pro Football Reference, 406 players had at least 600 rushing attempts. Jones ranks seventh all-time with a 5.05-yard average. After an injury-plagued start to his season, Jones the last four weeks has rushed for a league-high 476 yards with a 5.67-yard average.
To advance to the NFC Championship Game, the 49ers know they must take Jones away. Here’s a deeper look at the matchup.
Packers Rush Offense
For most of the season, the Packers had one of the worst rushing attacks in the NFL. After suffering a hamstring injury in Week 1, Aaron Jones was in and out of the lineup. AJ Dillon ran hard for the bruising yards but rarely found much daylight.
Upon returning from what he feared was a season-ending torn ACL, Jones turned back the clock. He enters Saturday’s game with four consecutive games of 110-plus rushing yards, the longest streak in franchise history.
“I definitely do think I’m playing some of the best ball in my career,” Jones said this week. “Just continue to lead this team, be me, continue to do the things that I've done to get to this point.”
With Dillon missing time with a broken thumb followed by a stinger, the 29-year-old Jones has received the biggest sustained workload of his career. Jones has been given at least 20 carries in each of those four games. He entered this season with six 20-carry games in his entire career.
By limiting Jones’ workload through the years, he remains an explosive back even at – by running back standards – his advanced age. Same goes for this season. After missing six full games, he entered the stretch run fresh and ready to rumble.
Jones’ dominance has led the Packers’ play-action passing game to new heights. Against the Cowboys, Jordan Love was 6-of-8 for 107 yards and two touchdowns on play-action passes. That’s why 49ers defensive coordinator Steve Wilks answered a question about stopping Love by instead talking about stopping Jones.
Jones can’t do it alone. Against Dallas, the Packers ran to the right 15 times and were rewarded with 87 yards. Right tackle Zach Tom is much more than just a high-quality pass protector, and the receivers – especially Dontayvion Wicks – have been happy to engage in the dirty work all season.
Of note, in two playoff games against the 49ers, Jones has rushed 24 times or 97 yards (4.04 average). In four career games at San Francisco, he’s carried 59 times for 234 yards (3.97 average). In the 2021 divisional loss at Lambeau Field, he carried 12 times for 41 yards (3.42 average).
49ers Run Defense
The 49ers finished third in the league in points allowed and eighth in total defense. However, the run defense isn’t impenetrable. They finished 14th with 4.13 yards allowed per carry. To be sure, some of that is skewed by the Arizona Cardinals piling up 234 yards and a 7.8-yard average in Week 15. In nine of 17 games, they allowed less than 4.0 yards per carry. That includes 3.9 in a loss to Baltimore in Week 16.
The defensive front is ferocious from a pass-rushing perspective but at least a little vulnerable against the run. The exception to that is defensive end Nick Bosa, who is a premier player, whatever the situation. He might be the best run-defending edge this side of the Raiders’ Maxx Crosby, who wrecked the Packers earlier this season.
The linebackers are great. All-Pro Fred Warner is flanked by Dre Greenlaw and former Packers washout Oren Burks. Warner had 132 tackles, including six for losses, and Greenlaw had 130 tackles, including four for losses.
“Their speed’s real,” coach Matt LaFleur said. “That’s why you’ve got to do a great job at the point of attack. Coming off the ball is going to be imperative, and that’s what they thrive on is their ability to cause disruption with the D-line’s ability to get off on the snap count.”
Grant Cohn of SI.com’s All 49ers: They were much better against the run the past few seasons when they had DeMeco Ryans and Robet Saleh defensive coordinator. Now, they have Steve Wilks, who has a much different philosophy.
Wilks likes to play two deep safeties. He’s much more concerned about not giving up explosive passes down the field. He doesn’t really concern himself much with the run defense. They don’t play a lot of heavy boxes. They don’t set the edges very well. Their best edge setter is Clelin Ferrell, who is out for Saturday. So, you can run on this team. You can get to the perimeter on this team.
The Niners’ best run defense all season has been their offense. Just taking leads and putting teams in position where they’re one-dimensional and they have to catch up. So, if the Packers can keep it close, Aaron Jones is going to be just as big of a factor in this game as Christian McCaffrey.
