Should First-Round History Impact Thinking at Tight End?

A former NFL general manager weighs in on the decision-making process at tight end for Green Bay Packers GM Brian Gutekunst.

Author:
Bill Huber
Publish date:
Apr 18, 2023 7:25 PM EDT

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Green Bay Packers

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers badly need an impact tight end. When general manager Brian Gutekunst is on the clock with his first-round pick on April 27, the entirety of a strong draft class could be at his fingertips.

The need is there.

The talent is there.

The history? Not so much.

Over the last eight years, seven tight ends have been drafted in the first round, ranging from Kyle Pitts to the Atlanta Falcons with the fourth overall pick in 2021 to David Njoku to the Cleveland Browns with the 29th pick in 2017.

Looking at their yardage production from the last two seasons, only three of those players rank in the top 10 at the position.

T.J. Hockenson, who was drafted by Detroit but was traded to Minnesota last season, ranked fifth. Pitts, who was third as a rookie but plunged to 30th in 2022, is seventh. Evan Engram, who signed with Jacksonville in free agency last offseason, is 10th.

None of them have lit the world on fire, though. Hockenson is third with 147 receptions, fifth with 1,497 yards and seventh with 10 touchdowns. That’s about 70 receptions for 750 yards and five touchdowns per season. That’s pretty good, though the two-year numbers are about 1,000 yards and 11 touchdowns behind Travis Kelce.

“It’s interesting,” former Tampa Bay Buccaneers general manager Mark Dominik said on Tuesday as part of an NFL Draft preview for SiriusXM NFL Radio. “You go over the last many years and you start looking at tight ends, the high-end tight ends really haven’t panned out.

“Evan Engram’s had his moments and, obviously, is building on years. O.J. Howard didn’t. Hayden Hurst has been a solid tight end but really hasn’t panned through. Hockenson’s been good but Noah Fant’s been up and down.”

Should that dicey history impact the way Gutekunst thinks on April 27? No, said Dominik and a scout.

Because potential difference-makers at the position have been so rare, they tend to be overdrafted, the scout said. He pointed to the smallish Engram and former professional pitcher Hurst as examples. With a plethora of quality tight ends in this class, there will be no reason to reach.

Moreover, each player needs to evaluated on his merits. Just because Howard was a colossal disappointment at No. 19 overall in 2017 doesn’t mean Utah’s Dalton Kincaid also is going to be a bust.

“I think this is a different class,” Dominik said. “When you look at (Notre Dame’s) Michael Mayer, when you look at (Oregon State’s Luke) Musgrave, when you look at Kincaid and (Georgia’s Darnell) Washington, those are the four that I have the highest on my board. I think they’re all uniquely talented. They’re in a spot where I feel good about all those guys wherever I’ve got to take them in the draft.”

For Gutekunst, the decision could boil down to this: Does he love a particular tight end so much that he has to take him in the first round? Or is he convinced he’ll like one that’s leftover in the second round?

“The Packers, you could start the run [on tight ends being selected] right where they’re picking,” Dominik said. “At 45, there should still be one on the board.

“Or, if you start to get nervous – you go to bed on Thursday night and you took a different position in the first round – I think you’re really considering based on the board, do you give up that fourth-round pick and make sure you go up to 38 or 37 and go get that tight end? I do think it’s desperately needed, especially for a younger quarterback, to get him that outlet.”

Mayer is the best all-around tight end in the draft but Washington has the potential to overtake him in time. Kincaid is the best receiving tight end in the draft but Musgrave has the potential to grab that mantle. And there’s always Iowa’s Sam LaPorta and South Dakota State’s Tucker Kraft as secondary options.

“My gut instinct,” Dominik said, “is you’re probably looking to trade up from your second-round pick to get one of those four that may fall off the board out of the first round.”