Three Reasons Why Packers Will Beat 49ers in NFC Playoff Game
GREEN BAY, Wis. – In 1995, the Green Bay Packers were 9.5-point underdogs for their NFC Divisional playoff game at the defending Super Bowl champion San Francisco 49ers. They won 27-17.
In 2023, the Packers are 9.5-point underdogs for their NFC Divisional playoff game at the Super Bowl-favorite 49ers on Saturday night.
Can history repeat itself? Yes. Here are three reasons why.
1. Jordan Love Is Hotter That Hot
With a great quarterback, anything is possible. It was with first-time MVP Brett Favre in the big upset win at San Francisco in 1995. It was for Aaron Rodgers during the Packers’ run to a Super Bowl title as a No. 6 seed in 2010.
Love looks like a great quarterback. His 157.2 passer rating at Dallas is the best ever for a visiting quarterback in NFL playoff history and the fourth-best overall.
The last nine games look like they’re straight out of Madden with a 70.7 percent completion rate with 21 touchdowns and one interception. Love joined Drew Brees (2018) as the only quarterbacks in NFL history to throw for at least 2,400 yards with 21-plus touchdowns, zero or one interception and a 70-plus percent completion rate over a nine-game span.
“For him to take care of the ball the way he has done has been unbelievable,” 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan said. “The 21 touchdowns and one pick is unbelievable. He’s extremely consistent in what they’re asking him to do. [Packers coach] Matt’s [LaFleur] very good at coaching the quarterback, and you can see that their quarterback is buying in. He plays very well in their system and makes a lot of plays. He has a big arm and is a big dude, too.”
Love and LaFleur are in total harmony, and the receivers are making play after play. The 49ers have one of the best defenses in the NFL, finishing No. 1 in yards per completion, tied for No. 1 in interceptions and fourth in passer rating.
“I think every week we’ve been getting better and better,” Love said. “In terms of execution, I think we’re getting better and better every week. I think we’ve been putting better performances out there and I think there’s still more out there before us.”
It won’t be easy. The 49ers have an elite pass rush, ground-covering linebackers and a ballhawking secondary. Cornerback Charvarius Ward had five interceptions and led the NFL with 23 passes defensed. Linebacker Fred Warner had four interceptions and 11 passes defensed.
For a red-hot quarterback, Love plays with that cliched ice in his veins. He wasn’t bothered for a moment by the Cowboys; he probably won’t be against the 49ers, either.
“They used to call it an energy vampire,” rookie receiver Jayden Reed said. “Whatever energy someone else is giving off, that’s what you receive. Him being poised and so calm, that goes throughout the whole offense, every room, and that translates to gameday and on the field. Just seeing him, how calm he is, how poised he is – never gets too high, never gets too low – I think that helps the whole offense out.”
2. Opportunities for Aaron Jones
When the 49ers came to Lambeau Field and shocked the Packers in the divisional round in 2021, they finished the season ranked seventh in yards allowed per carry. This year, they finished 14th.
So, it’s not a bad run defense. It’s just not a great run defense. There should be opportunities for Aaron Jones to get rolling.
After an injury-plagued season, Jones returned with a vengeance for the stretch run. During the final three weeks of the season, he ranked No. 1 with 358 rushing yards, second with a 5.7-yard average and first with eight runs of 12-plus yards.
The train kept rolling with 21 carries for 118 yards and three touchdowns at Dallas. He averaged 5.6 per carry with three more runs of 12-plus yards.
Over the four games, according to Pro Football Focus, Jones is No. 1 with 22 missed tackles. His 325 yards after contact on their own would rank fifth in total rushing yards.
“It feels great,” Jones said. “It feels like you're unstoppable. I try to achieve that. That's the aim of every game. But, ultimately, it's just a good feeling when you can just go out there and just play freely.”
This week, 49ers defensive coordinator Steve Wilks was asked about how his unit shut down another hot quarterback, Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence. His answer was telling.
“I think the No. 1 thing is we have to try to stop this run to try to make them one-dimensional,” Wilks said. “They’re very effective running a ball. I think it just opens up the play-action. That’s where you see him being extremely effective in taking the shots down the field and finding an open receiver. So, that’s No. 1.”
During the four-game winning streak, Love was 26-of-34 passing for 406 yards with four touchdowns and zero interceptions on play-action passes. His close-to-perfect 154.8 passer rating ranks third over that span.
Expect LaFleur to continue to ride Jones because of how it sets up the rest of the offense. Over the last two years, when Jones eclipsed his 63-yard average, the Packers are 6-1, according to Inside Edge. When he falls short, they’re 3-8.
“(Position coach Luke) Butkus is constantly preaching about our mentality, especially this last game,” guard Jon Runyan said. “We knew Dallas didn’t want to have a really physical game, and that’s what we kind of wanted to go get in as offensive linemen. I really feel like we kind of had our way with them, and that’s what it’s going to take going against San Francisco, another road game, another really good defense and one of the best teams in the NFL. As offensive linemen, we have to impose our will and get this run game going.”
3. By the Numbers
Did you know:
- The 49ers on defense ranked 24h on third down (40.9 percent conversions), 16th in the red zone (54.6 percent touchdowns) and 14th in goal-to-go situations (70.8 percent touchdowns)? So, there are real opportunities for the Packers to extend drives on third down (fifth; 47.1 percent) and score in the red zone (19th at 51.6 percent but 20-of-21 – NFL-best 95.2 percent – in goal-to-go situations).
- The 49ers were 0-3 when losing the turnover battle? They were a fifth-best plus-10 for the season but Green Bay had only two turnovers during the final four games.
- The Packers finished the season 25th in opponent passer rating but are 10th over the last three games? And even with a bunch of garbage points at the end of the Dallas game, Green Bay is tied for fifth with 17.0 points allowed over those last three games.
- The 49ers are 0-4 when trailing entering the fourth quarter? Brock Purdy in his career has a 75.5 passer rating “late in close games,” according to Inside Edge.
- The Packers are 4-0 when averaging at least 5.0 yards per carry?
- On third-and-short, Jones is averaging 3.4 yards per carry (10th-best) while the 49ers have allowed 4.5 yards (third-worst)?
Yes, this is a rather random listing of stats, but they all show a path to victory for the Packers. The 49ers are good. Really good. They are the Super Bowl favorite for a reason. But they are not invincible.
“We’re going to need a better game [than they were against Dallas], absolutely,” LaFleur said. “I think you can always get better, right? That’s our mindset. There’s always something that you can improve upon, and so we’re going against a great opponent and we’re going to need to be at our best.”
