Three Reasons Why Packers Will Lose to 49ers in NFC Playoff Game
GREEN BAY, Wis. – The San Francisco 49ers have been the favorite to win the Super Bowl for most of the season. The Green Bay Packers? Not so much.
“Just looking back here, even after the Broncos game, I don’t think anybody in this locker room would’ve thought we’d be playing in a divisional game against the 49ers,” right guard Jon Runyan said this week.
It’s been a heck of a run for the Packers, who beat the Chargers, Lions and Chiefs in consecutive weeks, then somehow lost to the Giants and Buccaneers, before recovering to win their final three games of the regular season and the Cowboys in the wild-card round.
Can the Packers do it again? No. Here are three reasons why the 49ers will beat the Packers in Saturday’s NFC Divisional playoff game and end their season once again.
1. Too Many Playmakers
The 49ers might have the most talented group of skill-position players in the NFL. Running back Christian McCaffrey led the NFL in rushing yards (1,459) and total yards (2,023). Receiver Brandon Aiyuk finished seventh in the NFL with 1,342 receiving yards and second with a 17.9-yard average. Receiver Deebo Samuel had 892 receiving yards and 225 rushing yards to top 1,100 total yards. George Kittle led all tight ends with 1,020 receiving yards and a 15.7 average.
That’s four players who topped 1,000 yards from scrimmage. The talented Packers had zero.
So, if you’re defensive coordinator Joe Barry, where do you start? Their deep and diverse offense is like Green Bay’s on steroids.
“I have an incredible amount of respect for Kyle (Shanahan) as a coach, as a play-caller,” Barry said. “When you put all the pieces that he has around him, they're elite at a lot of spots – the running back, the tight end, the wideouts – and when you add that to a guy that's arguably one of the best at calling plays, he's got a lot of toys to play with and he does a great job.”
Whether or not Brock Purdy is an elite quarterback or a quarterback with elite stats is irrelevant. The passing game is superb. Aiyuk caught 75 passes, followed by McCaffrey’s 67, Kittle’s 65 and Samuel’s 60. It’s a balanced attack in which all four are threats to go the distance on every play because of their elite yards-after-catch ability.
Even with a four-interception game against Baltimore, Purdy led the NFL with a 113.0 passer rating, 278.7 passing yards per game and 9.64 yards per attempt. The yards per attempt led the league by a proverbial mile; it was the third-best in the Super Bowl era.
“I think it’d be unfair to Brock Purdy and the way he’s played since he’s been there to say, ‘Oh, he’s just playing good because he’s got great players around him,’” Barry said. “It helps to have great pieces but any offense that has success, you instantly have to look at the triggerman. You talk about from an efficiency standpoint, ever since he’s taken control of that huddle since he got his first start, the efficiency’s incredible.”
2. No Stopping McCaffrey
While Purdy has been great, it all starts with McCaffrey.
“He’s the GOAT, man. He’s the GOAT,” defensive tackle Devonte Wyatt said. “You can watch it on film, watch it on TV, he’s the GOAT. We definitely have to have a plan for him.”
With 1,459 rushing yards, McCaffrey won the NFL rushing crown by almost 300 yards. With 2,023 total yards, he led the league for the second time in his career and was the only player this season to hit 2,000.
Of 41 running backs with at least 125 rushing attempts, McCaffrey was No. 1 in yards per carry (5.36) and 10-yard runs (44; 11 more than any other player), No. 2 in forced missed tackles (60) and No. 4 in yards after contact per carry (3.42), according to Pro Football Focus.
“He’s in the group with the elite guys,” 49ers run-game coordinator and offensive line coach Chris Foerster told reporters this week. “Working with a Peyton Manning, you work with a Jonathan Ogden, you work with some of these guys that are Hall of Fame type players that prepare as nobody else does.
“They’re almost crazy about their preparation. They’re never going to let up. They leave no stone unturned as far as game planning, as far as work, as far as their physical preparation, and Christian’s in that group of just elite players like that. There’s been a handful, but they’re generational-type players.”
Green Bay’s run defense has been broken for years. During the coach Matt LaFleur era, no team has allowed more rushing yards per attempt. This year, they ranked a decent 23rd with 4.42 yards per attempt.
The last three games against Minnesota, Chicago and Dallas have been encouraging, but those teams don’t feature electric passing games. The Packers can’t possibly win if McCaffrey is consistently ripping off runs of 5 or 6 yards. But they also can’t win if they put too many eggs in that basket and allow Purdy and the passing game to tear them apart.
“It’s a challenge because he’s definitely fast, physical,” Wyatt said. “We’ve got great guys on the D-line, too – me, Kenny, Preston Smith, Rashan Gary. We’re going against a great O-line, ourselves. It’s definitely going to be a challenge for us. Just do our job and we’ll be good, I promise you.”
3. Defensive Front
Led by Jordan Love and Aaron Jones, Green Bay’s offense is on a roll. However, even after routing the Micah Parsons-led Cowboys defense last week, the Packers haven’t faced a defensive front the caliber of San Francisco’s.
Defensive end Nick Bosa, the 2022 NFL Defensive Player of the Year, was the second pick of the 2019 draft. Chase Young, who was acquired at the trade deadline, won Rookie of the Year as the second pick of the 2020 draft. Arik Armstead was the 17th pick of the 2015 draft. Javon Hargrave was a Pro Bowler with the Eagles.
“Freak shows,” is how coach Matt LaFleur labeled them.
The Packers handled Dallas’ defensive front last week. However, aside from Parsons, the Cowboys don’t have a lot of elite talent on their front. The 49ers, on the other hand, are loaded.
“You look at their roster and not only are most of them first-round picks, but most of them are top-10 picks,” offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich said. “So, they have talent. They have a lot of talent. I have a lot of respect for how they’re coached. I have a lot of respect for how they play. They play physically. They get up the field.
“They do a really good job in their scheme, so it’s going to be a huge challenge for us. I’m excited for that challenge. This young group that we have, I’m really excited to see how they come out there and how they play. It’s going to be a great environment vs. a really good opponent, so it’s going to be a huge test for us.”
The key will be Green Bay’s second-year offensive tackles, Rasheed Walker on the left side and Zach Tom on the right. Tom, who has blossomed into an excellent starter, saw a lot of Parsons last week and will see a lot of Bosa on Saturday.
Bosa led the NFL with 18.5 sacks last year. He had “only” 10.5 this year but finished third in pressures and fourth in pass-rush win rate, according to Pro Football Focus.
“They’ve done a great job,” LaFleur said of Walker and Tom. “We’ve seen growth from them every week. Certainly, they’ve gone against some pretty formidable fronts throughout the course of the season and we’ve got another one right in front of us. We’re going to have to continue to show that growth and improvement, and we’ve got a great challenge that lies ahead.”
After that, the Packers must contend with All-Pro linebacker Fred Warner. He was the only player in the league with at least 130 tackles, four forced fumbles, four interceptions, 10 passes defensed and two sacks. His elite skill not only will challenge the running game but will close the passing windows.
“He’s the leader of the defense and, obviously, he’s one of the best linebackers in the NFL,” Love said. “He does a lot for that defense. You see him all over the tape. He’s flying around, making plays left and right. So, he’s a big-time player that you’ve got to know where he’s at and find ways to take advantage of what they do.”
