Carolina's Realistic Three-Step Offseason Plan to Become Contenders
It has been three years since the Carolina Panthers last made it to the postseason. The team made it to the Wild Card round back in 2017 only to lose to the division rival New Orleans Saints in the Superdome. Two consecutive 5-11 seasons have left Carolina in the NFC South basement or close to it. Panthers' owner David Tepper has become restless which has resulted in changes to the head coaching, general manager and starting quarterback positions. The term "rebuild" is thrown around in sports quite often but it can only buy a team so much time. At some point the Panthers are going to have to prove that they are headed in the right direction. This doe not necessarily mean that it is playoffs or bust for the team but they need to demonstrate that they have what it takes to at least contend for a spot in 2021.
Here's the three step plan that can get them there:
1) Obtain a franchise QB
This is easier said than done. Franchise quarterbacks come few and far between and prying one loose from a team that has one is almost impossible. This is an extremely unusual offseason, however. We have already seen the Detroit Lions deal former No. 1 overall pick Matthew Stafford to the Los Angeles Rams for two first-round picks, a third-rounder and former first overall pick himself, Jared Goff. The Panthers were in on the deal but Goff proved to be the trump card. It's going to be tough to obtain a franchise QB without giving at least the hope of one in return.
Trade for an elite QB
So, what are the options? The Panthers could attempt to strike a deal for a bonafide Pro Bowl caliber quarterback like the Houston Texans' Deshaun Watson or the Dallas Cowboys' Dak Prescott. The problem with that is whether or not Carolina even has enough to give up to acquire someone of that quality. Watson is just 25 years old and Prescott is 27. Both are significantly younger than 33-year-old Stafford who essentially garnered three first-round picks.
First-year GM Scott Fitterer would be betting the next three to four years of a mix of first and second-round picks on one player. I'm not sure that is a bet that anybody would feel comfortable making. This is in no way suggesting that Watson or Prescott are not worth the hefty price tag. They certainly have proven to be talented franchise QB's that elevate their teammates on and off the field. The worry is that mortgaging the next three or so years of the franchise on a single player is not a smart investment strategy.
Trade for a serviceable starter
There is also a tier of available quarterbacks that once were perceived to be "franchise" guys but have since soured. QB's like the San Francisco 49ers' Jimmy Garoppolo, the Chicago Bears' Mitch Trubisky, the Philadelphia Eagles' Carson Wentz and the Las Vegas Raiders' Derek Carr would fall into this category. These players could be traded for significantly less than Watson or Prescott. Carolina could deal the No. 8 overall pick in this year's draft and probably wipe their hands clean of any further damage to acquire one of the QB's mentioned above. Trubisky could even be made available via free-agency if Chicago chooses not to franchise him.
The problem with that is these signal-callers have a lot of holes in their games. Garoppolo is the only one that has won a playoff game. Trubisky is the only one that led his team to a playoff appearance in 2020. They all possess qualities and abilities that at one time earned them the perceived franchise QB label. The worry is that these days are behind them.
Trade up in the draft
After Clemson's Trevor Lawrence, Ohio State's Justin Fields and BYU's Zach Wilson, there is a big talent drop off in the incoming QB draft class. The Jacksonville Jaguars seem dead set on Lawrence with the first pick. After that, the New York Jets and the Atlanta Falcons are the two teams ahead of the Panthers that have been linked to quarterbacks. This excludes the possibility of a team swooping in from behind Carolina and trading up for their guy.
If the Panthers wish to secure a guy like Fields or Wilson, then they will more than likely need to trade up to do so. The drawback is that trading up, even just a few picks, can cost a team. In 2017, the Bears moved up one spot from No. 3 to No. 2 and it cost them two third-round picks and a fourth-rounder to do so. All that just to select Trubisky over Watson and Patrick Mahomes.
Best case scenario
One of the most effective tips they teach you about the stock market is that you should buy when the majority is selling and sell when the majority is buying. I'm by no means a stock market guru, but luckily for Panthers' fans, multi-billionaire David Tepper is. In an offseason where so many teams seem to be willing to move their quarterbacks it might just be beneficial to wait back and let things play out.
The Panthers have the No. 8 pick which should be good enough to land them a future franchise quarterback. Trading for a QB will always result in giving up more than your fair share. I think that staying put and drafting the best prospect that is available makes the most sense.
2) Upgrade the offensive line
Whoever is under center for the Panthers in 2021 is going to need some upgrade in protection. Taylor Moton is Carolina's biggest impending free agent. The second step in becoming a contender next year starts with re-signing him. After that the team will likely need to look to the draft for depth.
Free-agency is a great way to pick up veteran lineman but the problem is that the Panthers do not have all that much cap space. According to Spotrac, Carolina only has about $18 million available. This is before the team re-signs Moton. The bigger area that the team needs to target in free agency comes on the defensive side of the ball. The Panthers' defense is extremely young and would benefit greatly from adding a couple veteran playmakers.
Best case scenario
Carolina should be targeting offensive lineman heavily in the 2021 NFL Draft. Offensive lineman can usually step in and contribute right away because of the reduced learning curve for the position. This year's draft class offers some of the deepest talent at the tackle positions that we have seen recently.
Last year the Panthers decided to use all seven of their draft picks on defensive players. I wouldn't be opposed to Carolina flipping the script and using the majority of it's picks on the offense. A quarterback in round one followed by a couple lineman makes a recipe for success for a team that already features playmakers like Christian McCaffrey, DJ Moore and Robby Anderson.
3) Upgrade the secondary
Cornerback Rasul Douglas stepped in and had a decent season for the Panthers in 2020 given the circumstances. Donte Jackson is also solid in his role lined up opposite speedy wide receivers. Outside of them, Carolina needs some help in the secondary.
As mentioned previously, the young defense is in need of some veteran leadership. This is why it would make the most sense for the team to use its remaining cap space on a linebacker and a cornerback.
Best case scenario
Troy Hill, Desmond King, Mike Hilton, and Brian Poole are a list of CB's that are set to become free agents and should be within the Panthers' price range.
K.J. Wright and Lavonte David are a couple of veteran LB's that could help upgrade the entire defense with their leadership qualities as well as their play on the field.
Best case scenario, the Panthers are able to re-sign Moton and bring in a quality corner and linebacker. Carolina has just enough cap space to pull this off if they can persuade some veterans that they are just a few pieces away from making a run at the postseason.
Summary
In order for the Panthers to be contenders next season they will have to upgrade at the quarterback position, the offensive line and the secondary. The most logical way to accomplish this is for them to stay put at No. 8 despite the offseason quarterback frenzy. Drafting someone like North Dakota State's Trey Lance could give Carolina a future franchise quarterback without having to trade anything to get one. They should then spend their next couple of draft picks acquiring talented offensive lineman to protect their new QB. Finish it off by adding a couple free-agent defensive pieces and Carolina could just find themselves in the playoff picture come December.
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