Inside the Numbers: Carolina Panthers vs Green Bay Packers
A lot is at stake this weekend when the Carolina Panthers and Green Bay Packers get together on Saturday night. The Packers currently sit atop the NFC with a 10-3 record and hold the No. 1 seed at the moment. If that were to stand, they would have a first-round bye. The New Orleans Saints are also 10-3, but the Packers have the tiebreaker after defeating the Saints 37-30 earlier in the year.
For the Panthers, well, a loss could move them into the top five of the 2021 draft order while a win could slide them back down a few spots. Carolina's playoff aspirations are far behind them and now, they're just looking to finish off the season on a high note.
So, what can we expect this Saturday night? Let's get into it!
When the Panthers have the ball
| Panthers Offense | Stats | Packers Defense |
|---|---|---|
356.0 (19th) | Total YPG/Yards Allowed | 335.7 (8th) |
107.8 (20th) | Rushing YPG/Allowed | 109.7 (12th) |
4.31 (14th) | Rushing Yards Per Att/Allowed | 4.57 (23rd) |
248.2 (15th) | Passing YPG/Allowed | 226.0 (12th) |
26 (T-13th) | Sacks Allowed/Sacks | 35 (10th) |
40.9 (20th) | 3rd Down Efficiency | 39.5 (12th) |
23.6 (19th) | Points Per Game/Allowed | 24.8 (17th) |
I say it week in and week out and I'm not going to change my thought process this week. The Panthers have to stick to running the football and commit to running their offense through the ground game. I understand Mike Davis isn't Christian McCaffrey, but Davis can take the beating through 20-25 carries.
When you look at Green Bay's defense, they present a ton of problems. They have playmakers all over the secondary and have multiple pass rushers that are going to make life extremely difficult for Teddy Bridgewater. Although the Packers are 12th in run defense, they are 23rd in rushing yards per attempt. This means that teams that have played the Packers had to abandon the run game early on to be able to match scores with them or stay within reach. If teams had the ability to run the football more often, who knows how their run defense numbers would look.
Teddy Bridgewater went 30/40 last week vs Denver but at times looked a bit off. If the Panthers get the Teddy Bridgewater that has costly turnovers, they're going to be playing from behind and will abandon the run game - this plays into the Packers' hands.
Za'Darius Smith, Rashan Gary, and Kingsley Keke have accounted for 19.5 of the Packers' 35 sacks on the season, and with multiple offensive linemen being questionable for the Panthers, those guys could have a field day. If Russell Okung (calf) is unable to play, Green Bay will be sending numbers all game long on the weak side.
Advantage: Green Bay
When the Packers have the ball
| Packers Offense | Stats | Panthers Defense |
|---|---|---|
397.6 (2nd) | Total YPG/Yards Allowed | 364.4 (21st) |
123.8 (10th) | Rushing YPG/Allowed | 113.6 (15th) |
4.47 (12th) | Rushing Yards Per Att/Allowed | 4.45 (20th) |
273.8 (2nd) | Passing YPG/Allowed | 250.8 (22nd) |
14 (2nd) | Sacks Allowed/Sacks | 19 (T-26th) |
49.7 (2nd) | 3rd Down Efficiency | 50.6 (31st) |
31.5 (1st) | Points Per Game/Allowed | 25.5 (20th) |
What happens when the Packers have the ball you may ask? They score. They score. They score some more. And then guess what? They continue scoring. Green Bay leads the entire NFL in scoring offense averaging 31.5 points per game, while the Panthers' defense is allowing an average of 25.5 points per contest.
What makes the Packers so difficult to stop? Well, they do just about everything right. They protect Aaron Rodgers, they create explosive plays downfield with Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and they run the ball efficiently with Aaron Jones. Simply put, they are a complete offense. This is the type of offense that everyone in the league aspires to have.
The last time Carolina played an offense this potent, they allowed 544 total yards of offense to Tampa Bay including 210 yards rushing. On paper, the Packers should completely dominate this side of the ball. The young Panthers defense hasn't shown me anything to this point for me to believe there is any chance of slowing down this high flying attack.
Advantage: Green Bay
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