Inside the Numbers: Panthers at Bills Game Preview
Another week, another loss for the Carolina Panthers this past Sunday against the Atlanta Falcons which dropped their record to 5-8 on the season. The loss pretty much all but eliminates the Panthers from playoff contention as they would have to win out and also have some extra help along the way to clinch a spot.
Now, the Panthers turn the page to the Buffalo Bills in what should be a very chilly, windy Sunday afternoon in western New York. Buffalo QB Josh Allen had been limited in practice earlier in the week nursing a foot sprain but according to head coach Sean McDermott, he is expected to play.
The Bills got off to a 4-1 start but have since dropped five of their last eight games including a 9-6 loss to the lowly Jaguars and a 14-10 loss to the Patriots who threw the ball a grand total of three times. Buffalo is clearly the better team but the way they have played in recent weeks in addition to Allen's injury could allow the Panthers to do more than just hang around in this one.
When the Panthers have the ball:
| Panthers offense | Stats | Bills defense |
|---|---|---|
310.6 (27th) | Total Yards Per Game/Allowed | 288.9 (1st) |
109.7 (18th) | Rushing Yards Per Attempt/Allowed | 109.4 (12th) |
3.97 (26th) | Rushing Yards Per Game/Allowed | 4.10 (11th) |
200.9 (26th) | Passing Yards Per Game/Allowed | 179.5 (2nd) |
32 (22nd) | Sacks Allowed/Sacks | 23 (28th) |
34.9 (28th) | Third Down Efficiency | 33.7 (3rd) |
19.8 (24th) | Points Per Game/Allowed | 17.6 (3rd) |
Turnovers have plagued the Panthers offense seemingly all season long regardless of who is at quarterback. Sam Darnold, P.J. Walker, Cam Newton, they've all turned the ball over which has constantly put the defense in a bad position. For Carolina to have a chance in this game, they have to play clean football and that starts with Newton.
Secondly, Carolina has to establish some sort of run game against the league's 4th-best run defense. How that's going to happen? I don't know but they will have no choice but to do so. If Buffalo makes Carolina one-dimensional, they have no shot. Jordan Poyer, Micah Hyde, and Taron Johnson form a very strong secondary and as poorly as Panthers QBs have thrown the ball this year, they can't afford to attack that group all game long.
Despite being 0-3 as a starter in his return to Carolina, Cam Newton will remain the starting quarterback, as he should. He gives this team the best opportunity to win at the moment, however, P.J. Walker will see some game action as well. Head coach Matt Rhule mentioned earlier this week that he would ideally like to play just one quarterback but considering Newton doesn't have a firm grasp of the two-minute offense just yet, he has no choice but to insert Walker, a guy that has been in the organization for two years, into those situations.
"He's close," offensive playcaller Jeff Nixon said in regards to Cam Newton being able to play a full game, two-minute offense included. "The way he prepares for a game, it's been awesome. He's getting better and better each week and I'm looking forward to him to continue getting better so he can perform well for us on Sundays."
Playing two quarterbacks is challenging because it can throw one if not both guys out of rhythm. Nixon says given the situation, he feels that both Newton and Walker are handling it as professionals and are doing their best to help each other out.
"The biggest thing is you have to have enough in the gameplan where you feel comfortable that each quarterback can function in that particular week. They both know the offense, they know how to read defenses, they know how to get us in the best play possible.”
When the Bills have the ball:
| Bills offense | Stats | Panthers defense |
|---|---|---|
382.9 (8th) | Total Yards Per Game/Allowed | 293.0 (2nd) |
121.0 (15th) | Rushing Yards Per Attempt/Allowed | 115.3 (20th) |
4.78 (4th) | Rushing Yards Per Game/Allowed | 4.07 (9th) |
261.9 (8th) | Passing Yards Per Game/Allowed | 177.7 (1st) |
22 (4th) | Sacks Allowed/Sacks | 32 (T-10th) |
45.8 (3rd) | Third Down Efficiency | 36.4 (8th) |
27.9 (6th) | Points Per Game/Allowed | 21.7 (8th) |
Carolina will be facing one of the best offenses they've seen probably since week six against Minnesota. Sure, the Bills haven't had the same level of production and efficiency that they had earlier in the year but they're still just as dangerous.
Josh Allen is going to be a massive problem for Carolina, even if he isn't fully 100%. He's big, tough, and hard to bring to the ground. He's honestly a much more athletic version of what Ben Roethlisberger used to be in his prime but with a stronger arm. Panthers defensive coordinator Phil Snow said that if the Bills get into a lot of 3rd and 5's it's almost impossible to stop because of what he brings to the table. If the Bills RPO Carolina to death it's going to be a long day for that side of the ball. For evidence of struggles against the RPO, all you have to do is flip on the tape from the Dolphins game a few weeks back. The longest pass Tua Tagovailoa threw in that game? 14 yards.
If you dive into what the Bills do offensively, they essentially run their entire offense through Allen. I mean, when he's the second-leading rusher on the team and leads the team in rushing touchdowns (6), that should tell you all you need to know. The Bills will run the ball with Devin Singletary but would much rather leave it in Allen's hands. Last Sunday against Tampa Bay, the Bills barely ran the ball and when they did, it was Allen who did most of the work. Somehow, some way, the Panthers have to limit him from making big plays with his feet. Carolina's defense gave up multiple 3rd and longs last week to Atlanta and with a dual-threat such as Allen, getting off the field on 3rd and long is no guarantee.
Phil Snow discussed how 3rd downs have been the real issue for this defense and not the run defense like everyone seems to believe.
"There have been two or three games where we've struggled against the run. But Miami averaged 2.9 yards per carry and last week [Atlanta averaged] 3.6. If you average 3.6 for the year, you're the number one run defense in the National Football League. Right now, we're ninth in yards per carry [allowed]. The problem is the number of runs that add up the yards. I hear all this that we have problems against the run and all that but in the last two ballgames we didn't have any problems agains the run in terms of yards per carry. The problem is the volume of runs. I'll give you a great example. Buffalo played New England and gave up 220 yards rushing but guys, they gave up 3.5 yards per carry - that's pretty good run defense. The problem is they ran the ball 47 times. What you're trying to do in this league is to get them to not run the football and make them one dimensional. Because of our scores, they're able to keep running the football. The real issue the last two games has been third down."
The Panthers and Bills are scheduled to kick off at 1 p.m. EST on FOX.
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