Inside the Numbers: Panthers vs Vikings Game Preview
It's been a rough couple of weeks for the cats of the Queen City as the Panthers have dropped each of their last two games. Carolina now sits at 3-2 on the year but it's not time to panic just yet. Running back Christian McCaffrey was on the shelf for those two losses, and the offensive line has had a few missing links as well - Cameron Erving and Pat Elflein, both of whom returned to practice on Wednesday.
Despite being on the wrong side of the ledger lately, the Panthers have to be happy with a 3-2 start and what appears to be a favorable schedule over the next four weeks. The loss to the Eagles may be one they want to have back but once Monday came around, the team flushed it and moved on to Minnesota. On Wednesday, head coach Matt Rhule said the team had the best practice they've had since he's been on the job.
"I think the defense realized that they played a great football game for maybe 12 drives and then the last two drives we didn't do what we needed to do. When you have a defense that doesn't point fingers and instead says we could've done more and as Phil Snow very simply says, if the other team has more points than us we didn't play great defense. The defensive guys came out with a lot of energy today, the offensive guys had an edge."
So, will the really good practice translate to Sunday's game? Here's what we can expect:
When the Panthers have the ball
| Panthers Offense | Stats | Vikings Defense |
|---|---|---|
363.4 (16th) | Total Yards Per Game/Allowed | 368.8 (16th) |
107.8 (18th) | Rushing Yards Per Game/Allowed | 130.0 (22nd) |
3.67 (28th) | Rushing Yards Per Attempt/Allowed | 4.74 (29th) |
255.7 (13th) | Passing Yards Per Game/Allowed | 238.8 (13th) |
14 (T-24th) | Sacks Allowed/Sacks | 17 (2nd) |
38.2 (21st) | Third Down Efficiency | 31.7 (4th) |
23.0 (T-16th) | Points Per Game/Allowed | 21.8 (9th) |
Similar to last week's opponent, Philadelphia, the Minnesota Vikings have not had much success in stopping the run game. Not having Christian McCaffrey didn't result in a drop-off in the Panthers' rushing attack as rookie running back Chuba Hubbard rushed for over 100 yards in his first career start. That said, we all know the value that McCaffrey brings to the table and defenses have to prepare for him differently than they do for Chuba Hubbard or any other back.
Once again, the battle in the trenches is going to be an advantage that favors Minnesota. Carolina's offensive line has allowed a ton of QB pressures, hurries, and sacks this season but the last two weeks in particular. Minnesota just so happens to have one of the very best pass rushers in the game in Danielle Hunter who already has six sacks on the season. On the opposite side, Everson Griffen has four sacks of his own. This is a team that knows how to apply pressure and force quarterbacks to rush through their progressions which we saw Sam Darnold do a lot of last week.
With Cameron Erving out last week (neck), Taylor Moton flipped over to left tackle, allowing rookie Brady Christensen to get his first career start at right tackle. The two did a decent job but it wasn't smooth by any means. Moton was flagged for a false start twice and Christensen allowed a fair amount of QB hurries. This week, if Erving is good to go, Rhule said that Moton will go back to his original position at right tackle.
The main key for Carolina is to stay on the field and convert third downs. The Vikings do a really good job of getting teams to play behind the sticks which forces 3rd & longs. Protecting Darnold will go a long way in getting into 3rd and manageable.
When the Vikings have the ball
| Vikings Offense | Stats | Panthers Defense |
|---|---|---|
382.8 (11th) | Total Yards Per Game/Allowed | 255.8 (2nd) |
113.8 (15th) | Rushing Yards Per Game/Allowed | 94.2 (8th) |
4.25 (15th) | Rushing Yards Per Attempt/Allowed | 4.40 (22nd) |
269.0 (10th) | Passing Yards Per Game/Allowed | 161.6 (1st) |
9 (T-8th) | Sacks Allowed/Sacks | 16 (T-3rd) |
39.1 (19th) | Third Down Efficiency | 25.5 (1st) |
22.6 (T-19th) | Points Per Game/Allowed | 17.4 (3rd) |
Although Rhule and defensive coordinator Phil Snow were unhappy with the 4th quarter defense, it's hard to place any blame on that unit. They bailed out the offense time after time and even had a huge 4th down stop inside the 40. Shaq Thompson being out (foot) didn't seem to hurt the Panthers until late in the game when they began running more zone reads with Jalen Hurts. Thankfully for Carolina, they won't have to worry about game-planning for a mobile quarterback.
Speaking of the quarterback, Kirk Cousins is off to a red hot start. He's tossed for 1,396 yards, 10 touchdowns, and two interceptions while completing passes at a 70% clip. As good as those numbers are, Cousins has historically been known as a streaky quarterback. At some point, he's due for a really rough game and this Sunday could be it.
The Panthers' defense is one of the best in the league in nearly every statistical category. They have one of the top secondaries in the entire NFL but the run defense has been a pleasant surprise. Carolina sits 2nd in the league allowing an average of 94 rushing yards per game. Minnesota running back Dalvin Cook is listed as questionable for the game but if he is unable to go, expect Alexander Mattison to get the majority of the touches. Last week, he rushed for 113 yards on 25 carries.
Although Mike Zimmer likes to be a physical football team, I think he knows the best way for his team to leave Bank of America Stadium with a win is to throw the ball upwards of 30 times. Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen are two of the best receivers around who don't get a whole lot of attention - playing in Minnesota will do that.
As good as the Vikings' o-line has been to this point, I would expect Carolina to load the box to take away the run game and feel confident leaving their corners on an island.
Kickoff between the Panthers and Vikings is set for 1 p.m. EST on FOX.
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