Keys to the Game: Panthers vs Falcons
The Carolina Panthers travel south on I-85 to take on the Atlanta Falcons in an all-important divisional matchup. The winner on Sunday will rest their heads on their pillows on Sunday night in first place in the NFC South. Who would have thought that this time last week?
Here are the keys to the game for the Carolina Panthers.
1. Win the turnover battle
The first key is as simple as it gets. In their two wins, the Panthers didn't turn the ball over a single time. In their five losses, they've turned the ball over a total of eight times. Matt Rhule's "The Way of the Panther" document had much to make fun of, but his emphasis on valuing the football was a good thing. Atlanta prefers to keep the ball on the ground, which keeps the clock running, so possessions will be more valuable than normal in Atlanta on Sunday.
The Falcons are 32nd in the league in defensive DVOA. There are 32 teams in the NFL. However, they have 10 takeaways, good for ninth in the league. On a play-by-play basis the Falcons are a poor defensive unit, but they have a nose for the football and can make big plays that break the backs of opposing offenses.
On the other side of the ball, Marcus Mariota's quarterback play has been efficient, but uninspiring. If Carolina can force Mariota into making a mistake or two their chances of winning raise exponentially. We've seen the Panthers' defense force game-changing turnovers in losses, let's see them do it in a win.
2. Keep the passing game cookin'
P.J. Walker had a DAY against Tampa Bay. That was the best Panthers' quarterback performance since...2018? Nobody needs me to say that quarterback play has been a wasteland in Carolina for years, but Walker's performance was an oasis in the desert last week.
It wasn't just that Walker had a good game statistically. Walker made big-time throw after big-time throw. According to PFF, Walker had six big-time throws and didn't have a single turnover worthy play. Walker didn't just have a good game for Panthers' standards, he had one of the best quarterback games of the year.
DJ Moore is one of Carolina's highest-paid players and week seven was the first time he was the focal point of the offense. The trades of Christian McCaffrey and Robbie Anderson opened up targets for Moore and he delivered. Atlanta's superstar corner AJ Terrell is out on Sunday, and Moore will have an advantage on the outside no matter who is covering him. Let PJ and DJ cook!
3. Win on special teams
As we saw last week against Tampa Bay, divisional games have the chance to get weird. In many cases across the league every single week, games are won in the margins.
As is stands, the Carolina Panthers are a worse football team than the Atlanta Falcons. That pains me to say, but it's true. However, Carolina has a massive advantage on special teams, and that's how an upset can be sprung.
Think about the NFC championship game last year between San Francisco and Green Bay. Green Bay was better in that game on both offense and defense, but a few special teams miscues titled the game in San Francisco's favor.
The 2010 San Diego Chargers had the number one offense and defense in the NFL, but they missed the playoffs because their special teams were abysmal.
Steve Tabor can coach up a special teams unit with the best of them and I'm expecting a few game-changing plays in the often overlooked third phase of football.
