Why C.J. Stroud Should be the No. 1 Pick
Bryce Young, Anthony Richardson, and Will Levis are all in consideration to be the top pick in the draft by the Carolina Panthers. But none of those guys, in my book, top Ohio State's C.J. Stroud.
After a deep dive of watching Stroud's film, it's hard to come away thinking that he's anything but the best quarterback in this class. Like every quarterback, he has some flaws but they aren't alarming or consistently troublesome. It wouldn't hurt for him to work on his throws on the move and out of the pocket and there are times when he's just a beat too late on pulling the trigger on a throw downfield.
But for the most part, it's a really clean tape. Stroud steps up into the pocket and drives the ball with good velocity and isn't affected when there's some garbage around his feet. He remains calm, and poised, and doesn't stray away from his mechanics.
Accuracy is the thing that really jumps out to me. I know everyone is caught up in the completion percentage and they should be. It's 69.3% for his career. But it's far beyond just the numbers. It's the consistency of ball placement that screams QB1. Here are a few plays that I wanted to include showcasing that ball placement.
PLAY 1
Harrison Jr. beats his man about five yards into the route, Stroud sees it right away and gets the ball out, and places it perfectly for the touchdown. If he waits a half a second longer, the safety closes in and breaks it up, and probably delivers a big shot to the receiver.
PLAY 2
Okay, I'll admit, this is a damn good catch by Marvin Harrison Jr., but Stroud put the ball in the only place where Harrison could get to it. He had late pressure in his face and elevated the ball just over the nickel Kaevon Merriweather, giving Harrison a chance to make an unbelievable play. This is a TOUGH throw.
PLAY 3
On that same drive, Stroud drops one right in the bucket to Emeka Egbuka. Nothing crazy about this one but that's what's so impressive about his game. He makes these throws look so easy.
PLAY 4
Alright, here's the one that I can't stop watching. I mean, I've probably watched this one back probably thirty times and I still can't figure out how he gets this ball into such a tight window. The safety reads it, crashes down hard, yet still can't come up with the PBU. Just an absolute missile.
Aside from ball placement, Stroud is a quick processor. He can tell early in the play what's going to be open versus what's not. Some of the other quarterbacks in this class get caught thinking too much in the pocket. That's not the case whatsoever for Stroud. The moment he sees a guy pop open, boom. The ball is out.
Mechanically, he's head and shoulders above Levis and Richardson. There is very little to no wasted movement. And from a size perspective, he's head, shoulders, and then some to Bryce Young. Mechanics matter. Size matters. There are only a handful of quarterbacks in NFL history who are around the same frame as Bryce Young and have had success. But you think about those players i.e. Russell Wilson, Drew Brees, Kyler Murray, etc., they all have a thicker frame.
So when trying to identify the top guy of these four quarterbacks, it's clear to me that it's Stroud. You can't roll the dice on Levis and Richardson and hope that it all works out. The Panthers are ready to win now. You shrink the window to win by taking one of those two guys because, by the time they are ready to be the guy, you're going to have to start paying other key pieces on the roster plus the quarterback himself. So that brings us to Stroud and Young, who are more apt to play right away and do so successfully.
If the two are that close, which they are, how do you pass on Stroud? Why try to be the smart guy by taking a quarterback that you hope defies the odds and becomes the first player of his stature to be a franchise-altering quarterback? Note: His stature. Not Brees', Wilson's, and so on.
With Stroud, there are fewer concerns and fewer obstacles, and on top of that, you're getting the best natural thrower in the draft. It doesn't matter that he went to Ohio State. I've heard that a lot too. Do you mean to tell me Texas Tech had a good run of QBs in the NFL prior to Patrick Mahomes? No, but they had some seriously good QB talent. I could care less where he went to school. If you remove that narrative, you'll take for what he is and that's the best quarterback available.
If you're still not convinced Stroud is the guy, go rewatch the Georgia tape. That's all you should need to be sold on him as QB1. Nobody could move the ball on that defense all year long and he goes 23-of-34 for 348 yards, four touchdowns, and no picks. A defense that has NFL talent all over the place.
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