KAMARALYTICS! The Analytics behind Alvin Kamara's Hot Start in 2020
KAMARALYTICS!
The Analytics behind Kamara's Hot Start in 2020 by Andrew Gullotta, SNN Intern.
© Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports
After RB Alvin Kamara scampered into the endzone after a 52-yard receiving touchdown, it became apparent that Kamara is back into “Matrix Mode” after an injury-riddled 2019 season. The 2017 AP Offensive Rookie of the Year has already hit paydirt six times, which matches his entire last season total, and has gained a league-leading 438 yards from scrimmage.
Kamara has been dominant for the Saints while watching New Orleans on Sundays, but the three-time Pro Bowler’s productivity goes beyond the eye test during games. Kamara’s output based on analytics makes defenses coordinators want to cringe when matching up against number 41.
According to the Football Outsiders, Kamara has the second most Defense-adjusted Yards from Scrimmage Above Replacement (DYAR) among running backs with 115. Additionally, he is also only one of three running backs to have a DYAR over 100.
New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara reported to Saints Training camp amid the contract drama. Saints owner Gayle Benson also returned to the facility after COVID-19 positive test. Mrs. Benson is in the golf cart. Credit: Edwin Goode, WVUE; September 2, 2020. Metairie, LA
You may be asking, what does DYAR have to do with production from a running back? Well, DYAR is the value (in yardage) of a play where a running back carried or caught the ball compared to their replacement level. This stat is adjusted for situation and opponent, so all rushers are on equal playing fields.
Kamara’s elite performance under the DYAR statistic conveys how valuable the running back is to the Saints offense. In only three games, the 2017 3rd round selection has created over 115 yards extra that the Saints would otherwise not have. These yards have been used to propel the Saints offense to convert on key 3rd downs and many other big plays throughout the season.
Kamara achieved the elite DYAR value because there are many areas where Kamara has excelled that contribute to this statistic. For example, Kamara has avoided the third-most tackles (15), which conveys his uncanny balance while shaking off incoming tacklers. Without avoiding tackles, it is unlikely that Kamara’s DYAR would be so high.
© Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports
Another contributing factor to the University of Tennessee product’s high DYAR is that he holds the second-best receiving grade among all pass-catchers in the NFL, according to Pro Football Focus (90.6). His ability to be Drew Brees’ reliable safety valve and the best playmaker on offense makes him an irreplaceable piece to the team, especially with All-Pro WR Michael Thomas sidelined with an ankle injury.
Adding to Kamara’s impressive start, the Saints’ Pro Football Focus run-blocking grade is 65.7 to start the season, only 15th in the league. This grade is down more than 10 points from last season, so Kamara’s success must go beyond the offensive line's production.
The newly extended running back’s elite play has been one of few bright spots during New Orleans’ underwhelming 1-2 start to the season. The Saints hope Kamara can continue his great play and improve in other areas on the field when the team travels to Detroit to play the Lions this Sunday.
New Orleans will travel to meet the Detroit at Ford Field on Sunday afternoon at 12 PM CDT. Fox Sports will broadcast the contest between the 1-2 NFC teams.
