Saints Defense vs. Dolphins Offense
Week 16 of the NFL season concludes with the New Orleans Saints hosting the Miami Dolphins. Both squads come in with 7-7 records and needing a win to strengthen playoff chances. The Dolphins have won six straight after a 1-7 start. However, five of those wins were against the Jets (twice), Giants, Texans, and Panthers.
The Saints are coming off a stirring 9-0 shutout of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. New Orleans has won games on the back of a strong defense in 2021. Their defensive depth has been greatly thinned by a rash of positive Covid tests that has ravaged the entire team for tonight.
Quarterbacks Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian won't be available after positive Covid tests, meaning that rookie QB Ian Book will get his first NFL action. The team's top two tight ends, Adam Trautman and Juwan Johnson, along with RT Ryan Ramczyk and WR Deonte Harris will also be sidelined tonight. Pro Bowl LT Terron Armstead will be a game-time decision with a knee injury.
The Saints defense stifled an explosive Buccaneers offense last Sunday. They'll be tested with the losses of linebackers Demario Davis, Kwon Alexander, and Kaden Elliss this week because of Covid. Pass rusher Carl Granderson and Jalyn Holmes are also out, thinning a defensive line already without injured ends Tanoh Kpassagnon and Payton Turner.
Does a Covid-ravaged New Orleans have enough defensive talent remaining to shoulder a victory against Miami on a Prime Time stage?
Saints Defensive Rankings
- Points = 4th (20.4 per game)
- Total Yardage = 14th (337/game)
- Passing = 18th (240/game)
- Rushing = 5th (96.6/game)
Dolphins Offensive Rankings
- Points = 21st (20.4/game)
- Total Yards = 24th (314.7/game)
- Passing = 16th (228/game)
- Rushing = 30th (86.6)
Saints Run Defense vs Dolphins Rushing Attack
New Orleans Saints defensive end Marcus Davenport (92) tackles Jacksonville Jaguars running back Nathan Cottrell (31). Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports
New Orleans has been one of the league's toughest teams to run on over the last four years. They've allowed just 3.8 yards per rush this season, second best in the NFL, and have held nine opponents under 100 yards on the ground.
Miami has had a punchless running game most of the year. Leading rusher Myles Gaskin (580 yards, 3.5/carry) may yield snaps to former Texans RB Duke Johnson, who had 125 yards rushing against the Jets last week.
The Dolphins have had trouble establishing balance all season, creating more pressure on second-year QB Tua Tagovailoa and the passing game. They've been held to under 100 yards rushing in 9 of 14 outings this season.
New Orleans will need to shut down the run and cause Miami to be one-dimensional. They’ll have to do it without the services of Demario Davis, one of the league's best defenders, along with Alexander and S Malcolm Jenkins.
The Saints are essentially down to rookie Pete Werner, Andrew Dowell, and Zack Baun at linebacker. While they’ll have to maintain proper positioning, the defensive line needs to win their battles at the point of attack to stymie the run.
Saints Pass Defense vs. Dolphins Passing Attack
Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1). Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY
Other than Jenkins, the New Orleans secondary comes into the game intact. Pro Bowl CB Marshon Lattimore leads the unit by taking on an opponent's best wideout. He’s been able to shut down some of the NFL's top receivers one-on-one, allowing the team to be more aggressive in coverage packages.
The Saints have held opposing quarterbacks to less than 62% completion percentage and have 15 interceptions, among the most in the league. Corners Bradley Roby and rookie Paulson Adebo are an aggressive complement to Lattimore and provide a top man-to-man trio.
Fifth-year FS Marcus Williams is having his best season and has elite range in deep support. Versatile defensive backs Chauncey Gardner-Johnson and P.J. Williams step in for Jenkins and will also supply slot coverage and extra run support.
New Orleans Saints cornerback Marshon Lattimore (23) reacts after recovering a fumble against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY
New Orleans is capable of creating chaos with a variety of pressure packages from defensive coordinator Dennis Allen. The Saints have 33 sacks and 91 QB hits this season. Their best pressure comes from defensive ends Marcus Davenport and Cameron Jordan, who have combined for 12.5 sacks and 41 pressures.
Jordan and Davenport are disruptive from the edge, but can also line up inside to bring pressure. The Saints need a big contribution from DT David Onyemata on the inside. With Davis and Alexander out, Gardner-Johnson and P.J. Williams may be used on blitzes to create more pressure.
Tua Tagovailoa has completed nearly 70% of his throws and has made great progress in his second year. Tagovailoa has 14 touchdowns, 8 interceptions, and one 300-yard outing in nine games this season. He has a good enough arm to hit the deep ball, but is better at peppering defenses with quick passes between the numbers.
Tagovailoa has nice elusiveness to escape defenders, but shows poor pocket presence and feel for the pass rush. The Dolphins offensive line has also suffered from inconsistencies this season. Miami quarterbacks have been sacked 31 times and are often under duress.
The Dolphins have two terrific young receivers for their young signal caller. Rookie WR Jaylen Waddle, the number six overall selection, has established himself as a gamebreaker. Waddle leads the team with 86 receptions for 849 yards and 4 touchdowns.
Fourth-year TE Mike Gesicki has developed into one of the league's better receivers at the position. Gesicki has 64 catches for 685 yards and two scores. Devante Parker and Albert Wilson are big-play complements to Waddle at wideout, while Gaskin and Johnson are reliable receivers out of the backfield.
What to Watch
New Orleans Saints defensive end Cameron Jordan (94) sacks Tampa Bay quarterback Tom Brady (12). Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY
With a rookie quarterback making his first start for an already struggling offense, it seems as if the onus of victory falls to the Saints defense again. New Orleans was up to the task last week against Tampa Bay, but are without three starters and two key reserves tonight.
The Saints must stop the Dolphins from establishing balance and keep Tagovailoa from getting into an early rhythm with disruption from their defensive front. Their secondary needs to be up to the task against an underrated Miami receiving corps, while Werner has to shut down Gaskin and Johnson on check-down passes.
A thinner New Orleans defense has to stop Miami from sustained drives to avoid wearing down. The Saints are ranked near the top of the NFL in third-down defense and red-zone efficiency. To stay in the playoff race, the New Orleans defense needs to flex its muscle on a prime-time stage.
