Saints Pass Offense vs. Falcons Pass Defense
The New Orleans Saints come into this weekends rematch with the Atlanta Falcons with a 9-2 record and in search of their 10th consecutive victory. They own the top spot in not only the NFC South but also the conference. One of those wins was a 24-9 home defeat of these Falcons two weeks ago.
The Saints have the league's 13th ranked offense. They average 366 yards per game and are ranked in the NFL's top-10 in points scored, 3rd down conversion rate, and red-zone percentage. They've had offensive success despite injuries through their receiving corps earlier in the year and along their offensive line more recently. New Orleans has also been without Hall of Fame quarterback Drew Brees for the last two games with a rib injury that has him on injured reserve through at least this game.
iNov 29, 2020; Denver, Colorado, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Taysom Hill (7) passes in the first quarter against the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY
Without Brees, the New Orleans passing attack has slipped to 20th in the league with an average of 231 yards per game. Brees, who leads the NFL in completion percentage (73.5%), was averaging 265 yards/game with 18 touchdown passes and 3 interceptions.
Taysom Hill has gotten the first two starts in replacement of Brees and has completed 69% of his throws for 311 yards with no touchdowns and an interception. Hill's first career start at quarterback came at home against the Falcons two weeks ago. He completed 18 of 23 passes for 233 yards and no interceptions while running for two touchdowns.
The Saints now travel to the 4-7 Falcons, who rank 27th in total defense and allow 25.5 points per game. Atlanta ranks 31st in pass defense, allowing an average of 292 yards per contest. They've allowed seven 300-Yd passers and only three defenses are worse in red-zone percentage. Atlanta has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 68% of their throws, and 16 players have at least 75 yards receiving against them this season.
Dec 7, 2017; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Falcons linebacker Deion Jones (45) intercepts a pass in front of New Orleans Saints tight end Josh Hill (89) during the second half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY
The Falcons have a young trio of physical cornerbacks in A.J. Terrell, Isaiah Oliver, and Kendall Sheffield, along with veterans Blidi Wreh-Wilson and Darqueze Dennard, who have promising ability but have struggled to contain opposing wideouts. Keanu Neal and Ricardo Allen are heavy hitters at safety, but have a limited range.
Deion Jones is an athletic linebacker with outstanding coverage range. He teams with fellow LB Foyesade Oluokun to stay with opposing backs and tight ends. The Falcons have intercepted 8 passes this season and just five from their defensive backfield.
Atlanta's front seven doesn't do their secondary any favors, generating little consistent pressure on opposing passers. They have 22 sacks this season, led by 3.5 from LB Deion Jones, who also leads the team with 2 interceptions. Defensive tackle Grady Jarrett, who has 3 sacks and a team-high 21 QB pressures, is one of the NFL's better interior rushers.
The Falcons have a pair of accomplished edge rushers in Dante Fowler and Charles Harris, who have combined for 5 sacks and 26 pressures. Fowler, who didn't play against New Orleans two weeks ago, is questionable for the rematch with a hamstring injury.
Nov 22, 2020; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; New Orleans Saints center Cesar Ruiz (51) blocks Atlanta Falcons defensive tackle Grady Jarrett (97) during the second half at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY
The Saints protect their quarterback as well as anyone in the NFL. They've allowed 19 sacks this year. Six of those have come in the last two games with Taysom Hill behind center, but largely because he's held on to the ball too long. Right tackle Ryan Ramczyk is one of the league's finest offensive linemen and has routinely shut down top pass rushers.
Left tackle Terron Armstead is on the Reserve-Covid list, however, and will be replaced by veteran James Hurst. Center Erik McCoy is having a year worthy of Pro Bowl consideration, while guards Andrus Peat, Nick Easton, and rookie Cesar Ruiz have fortified interior protection after early season struggles.
Running back Alvin Kamara has only one catch in the last two games and none in the last meeting against the Falcons, leads the Saints with 68 catches for 646 yards and 4 touchdowns. Kamara is the league's best receiving back and is used all around the team's offensive formation.
Another matchup advantage for New Orleans not used as much in recent weeks is tight end Jared Cook. The Pro Bowl tight end leads the team in yards per catch and touchdown receptions, but has 22 catches for 285 yards and one reception in the last three weeks.
Nov 22, 2020; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; New Orleans Saints wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders (17) runs after a catch against the Atlanta Falcons during the second half at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY
All-Pro WR Michael Thomas is hitting his stride after missing six of the first seven games with injuries. Thomas has 23 receptions for 249 yards in five games this year, with his best outing of 9 catches for 104 yards against the Falcons last month.
Wideout Emmanuel Sanders has been a perfect complement to Thomas, catching 36 passes for 417 yards and 3 scores. Rookie WR Marquez Callaway will miss this game with a knee injury, but Deonte Harris (20 receptions for 186 yards, 1 touchdown) and Tre'Quan Smith (27-321, 3) supply adequate depth at receiver.
Taysom Hill showed surprising poise and pocket presence against the Falcons two weeks ago. After a poor performance on the road against Denver last week, Hill has a lot to prove in this divisional rematch.
I expect the Falcons to stack the tackle box to stop the 7th ranked New Orleans rushing attack and dare Hill and his receivers to beat them through the air.
While the Falcons have contained Kamara in matchups between the teams, Michael Thomas has feasted on Atlanta defensive backs. In nine career meetings against the Falcons, Thomas has averaged 8 receptions for 98 yards and has five 100-Yd outings.
Nov 22, 2020; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; New Orleans Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas (13) catches a pass over Atlanta Falcons free safety Ricardo Allen (37) during the second half at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports
The Saints have stayed committed to their running game, but they'll need a more productive passing attack to win this game and stay on top of the NFC. For that to happen, Hill must be more decisive with his throws and his receivers must win their one-on-one opportunities against what has been a porous Atlanta pass defense.
