Saints Pass Offense vs. Vikings Pass Defense
The 10-4 New Orleans Saints host the 6-8 Minnesota Vikings Christmas Day afternoon in a pivotal matchup for both teams. New Orleans has been in a position to win the NFC South for the last two weeks but has suffered back-to-back losses. The erratic Vikings are coming off consecutive losses of their own and need this win just to stay in contention for a playoff berth.
New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees returned to the lineup last week after missing four games with a serious rib injury. Without Brees behind center, the team wasn't as efficient offensively, but still went 3-1 with Taysom Hill at quarterback. The Saints slipped to a 16th overall ranking, averaging 364 yards per game. They rank in the top-10 of the league in rushing (7th), points scored (28.4/game), 3rd down percentage, and red-zone efficiency.
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The New Orleans passing game currently ranks 21st in the NFL, with an average of 232 yards per game. Taysom Hill completed 72% of his attempts with 4 touchdowns and 2 interceptions in Brees' absence, but the passing attack was still limited. Injuries to their receiving corps throughout this season have also hampered the offense. That, coupled with a rusty Brees, contributed to a horrendous offensive start in a loss to Kansas City last Sunday.
VIKINGS PASS DEFENSE
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The Saints now take on a Vikings defense that ranks 23rd overall, giving up 378 yards and 27.7 points per contest. Minnesota is 4th in red-zone defense and 9th on 3rd downs, but has allowed over 30 points five times and held just one opponent to under 20 points. Once a formidable unit, this defense now has a young nucleus thanks to several offseason personnel moves and a rash of injuries this season.
The Vikings rank 24th in pass defense, allowing 252 yards per outing, 27 touchdown passes, and 66% completion percentage to opposing quarterbacks. Minnesota has 12 interceptions but has allowed five 300-Yd passers and ranks near the bottom of the league in yards/attempt.
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Minnesota revamped their cornerback unit this offseason, letting go of several veterans and using a first-round draft choice on CB Jeff Gladney and a 3rd rounder on CB Cameron Dantzler. Both players show promise but have taken their lumps as inexperienced rookies. Dantzler, who is dealing with a foot injury, has 2 interceptions and has allowed 61.8% completion percentage and 4 touchdowns when targeted. Gladney doesn't have an interception and has surrendered a 68.8% completion percentage and 6 touchdowns.
Harrison Smith and Anthony Harris could be the league's best tandem of safeties. Smith has a team-high 4 interceptions and 9 passes broken up and provides excellent coverage against opposing tight ends. Harris has terrific instincts as a deep safety and had a key interception of Brees in last January's playoff upset of the Saints. Minnesota's linebacking corps has struggled in coverage this season and will now be without injured All-Pro LB Eric Kendricks and Troy Dye, with Todd Davis listed as doubtful.
Aug 9, 2019; New Orleans, LA, USA; New Orleans Saints center Erik McCoy (78) blocks against Minnesota Vikings defensive tackle Jaleel Johnson (94) during the first quarter at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY
The Vikings have just 22 sacks this season, among the fewest in the NFL. Yannick Ngakoue, who was traded away after just six games, still leads the team in sacks. Third-year DE Ifeadi Odenigbo, who is dealing with an ankle injury, leads the current roster with 3.5 takedowns and 23 pressures. Rookie 4th round pick D.J. Wonnum has 3 sacks and shows promise as a rotational pass rusher. End Hercules Mata'afa is also a capable rusher, but the Vikings will be without injured DE Jalyn Holmes. Minnesota can generate some interior pressure from defensive tackles Jaleel Johnson and Shamar Stephen, but are thin at this position and haven't been consistently productive.
SAINTS PASS OFFENSE
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Drew Brees leads the NFL with a 70.5% completion percentage and has averaged 261 yards in the nine full games he’s played with 21 touchdown passes and 4 interceptions. The 41-Yr quarterback showed some rust in a horrid start to the game against the Chiefs last week but rebounded by completing 10 of 18 throws for 147 yards and 2 scores in the second half. In nine career meetings against the Vikings while with New Orleans, Brees has a 5-4 record. He’s completed 70% of his throws against Minnesota, averaging 265 yards per outing with 18 touchdowns and 6 interceptions while getting sacked 10 times.
Like against Kansas City, Brees will have an injury-depleted receiving corps to work with. All-Pro WR Michael Thomas, dynamic kick returner Deonte Harris, and WR Tre'Quan Smith are all on injured reserve until at least the playoffs. Undrafted rookie WR Marquez Callaway, who has 15 catches for 136 yards, was activated from injured reserve and could play against the Vikings. The Saints have been relegated to using practice squad wideouts Lil'Jordan Humphrey, Juwan Johnson, and Austin Carr in recent weeks.
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Running back Alvin Kamara leads the Saints, and all NFL running backs, with 80 receptions for 739 yards while catching five touchdowns. Kamara is a deadly receiving weapon that is effective on screens, out of the backfield, or split out wide. Fellow back Latavius Murray has just 20 catches for 152 yards and a score as a check-down or occasional screen option.
Besides Kamara, Brees will still have two veteran Pro Bowlers to target in WR Emmanuel Sanders and TE Jared Cook. Sanders is second on the team with 48 receptions for 580 yards and 4 scores. Cook has hauled in 30 catches for 379 yards and a team-high 6 touchdowns. They have activated backup QB, Jameis Winston, from the Reserve/COVID-19 list, meaning that Taysom Hill can resume his versatile role within the offense. Hill has just six receptions this season but has the athleticism to threaten defenses in the open field.
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New Orleans has allowed 27 sacks this season, but just 11 of Brees, who makes decisive reads and gets rid of the ball quickly. Tackles Ryan Ramczyk and Terron Armstead routinely shut down the league's top edge rushers, while C Erik McCoy has blossomed into a terrific interior blocker. Left guard Andrus Peat has struggled in pass protection and is slowed by an ankle injury. Veteran G Nick Easton will miss another game with a concussion, meaning that rookie Cesar Ruiz will get the start at right guard. Ruiz is further along with his run blocking than pass protection at this stage of his career.
Protecting Brees is crucial to any offensive success New Orleans has, even more so because of his recovery and the injuries to the receiving corps. This offensive line turned in a poor performance in the playoff upset to the Vikings last season, allowing three sacks and getting pushed around the line of scrimmage, especially along with the interior.
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Expect Kamara to be used heavily against the depleted Minnesota linebackers, but the Saints wideouts must also get separation against the inexperienced Viking cornerbacks. New Orleans needs to come out sharper offensively than they have either of the last two games to break their losing streak and treat themselves to a division title and home playoff game for Christmas.
