Saints Run Defense vs. Vikings Run Offense
The New Orleans Saints now sit at 10-4 because of back-to-back losses on the road to the Philadelphia Eagles and at home to the Kansas City Chiefs and their referees. New Orleans still sits just one win away from its fourth consecutive NFC South title, but their chances for the top seed in the conference and a first-round bye are all but gone.
They've lost those two games for several reasons on both sides of the ball, but one is a surprising slump of their normally stout run defense. New Orleans next takes on the 6-8 Minnesota Vikings on Christmas Day in the Superdome
Oct 28, 2018; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Vikings running back Latavius Murray (25) is tackled by New Orleans Saints linebacker Demario Davis (56) during the first quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports
The Saints still rank 3rd in total defense, allowing an average of 306 yards per game, and sixth in points at 21.2/contest. They held an explosive Kansas City passing attack in check on Sunday, but allowed the Chiefs to have the second highest rushing output they've had all season with 179 yards on the ground. It was the third highest rushing total that the Saints have given up in their last 61 games.
Just the week before, the Eagles rushed for 246 yards and had TWO 100-Yd performances. That was the most against New Orleans on the ground since Week 14 of the 2014 season, a span of 102 games. Reason for concern? Possibly. Especially with the Vikings coming to town in a critical contest for both teams.
VIKINGS RUN OFFENSE
Sep 11, 2017; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Vikings running back Dalvin Cook (33) carries the ball during the second quarter against the New Orleans Saints at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY
Minnesota ranks fifth in total offense with an average of 387 yards per game, but have only averaged 25.7 points/outing. The Vikings are just 16th in 3rd down conversions but are the league's fifth-best team in the red zone, primarily because of a bruising running game. Minnesota's rush offense ranks 5th in the league, averaging 147.7 yards/game and 4.7 per attempt.
Fourth-year running back Dalvin Cook leads the Vikings with 1,484 yards, second highest in the league, and an NFL-high 15 touchdowns. Cook has eight outings of over 100 yards this season and has surpassed the century mark in his last three games. Cook has faced the Saints twice in his career.
He rushed for 127 yards in the 2017 season opener against New Orleans, his first game as a pro. He had 94 yards rushing and 130 all-purpose yards, scoring two touchdowns during an upset win over the Saints in New Orleans in the 1st round of the playoffs last year.
Jan 5, 2020; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; Minnesota Vikings running back Dalvin Cook (33) runs the ball against New Orleans Saints defensive end Mario Edwards (97) during the first quarter of a NFC Wild Card playoff football game at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY
SAINTS RUN DEFENSE
Despite the two-game slump, the Saints still have the league's 4th ranked run defense. They've allowed just 95.6 yards per game on the ground, while the 3.8/carry and 8 rushing scores against them are the second lowest in the NFL. New Orleans has held nine opponents under 100 yards on the ground this season.
Their defensive success starts with a deep and physical defensive line winning battles up front. Defensive ends: Cameron Jordan, Trey Hendrickson, Marcus Davenport, and Carl Granderson have been outstanding at holding the edge against the run and crashing inside. However, this position has struggled with over-pursuit in recent weeks, leaving them susceptible to misdirection.
Jan 5, 2020; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; Minnesota Vikings running back Dalvin Cook (33) runs the ball against New Orleans Saints defensive tackle David Onyemata (93) during the first quarter of a NFC Wild Card playoff football game at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY
Defensive tackle Malcom Brown has missed the last two games with a shoulder injury that has him questionable for Friday's game. Brown is one of the league's best interior run defenders, and they have missed his presence. Tackles David Onyemata, Sheldon Rankins, Shy Tuttle, and Malcolm Roach are all impressive run stoppers with the athleticism to slice into opposing backfields or cut down a runner along the outside in pursuit.
Without Brown, this position played better against the Chiefs than they did against the Eagles but wore down late with a season-high 41 rush attempts against their defense.
All-Pro linebacker Demario Davis is the catalyst of the New Orleans defense. Davis leads the team with 106 tackles and has 10 of his defense's 74 tackles for loss. He has an elite ability to diagnose plays and terrific athleticism in reacting to make a play. Kwon Alexander and Alex Anzalone join Davis to form an athletic trio of linebackers who are outstanding against the run.
Sep 11, 2017; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Vikings running back Dalvin Cook (33) is tackled by New Orleans Saints linebacker Alex Anzalone (47) and linebacker A.J. Klein (53) during the first quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY
The New Orleans defensive backs swarm to the ball carrier unlike few other secondaries, and all are effective tacklers in the open field. Safeties Chauncey Gardner-Johnson and Malcolm Jenkins are often deployed as extra linebackers and are disruptive around the line of scrimmage, combining for 11 tackles for loss.
Minnesota is a run-first team that relies on the talent and physicality of Dalvin Cook. When Cook has been nicked up this season, their offense has stalled. The Vikings offensive line struggles in pass protection but is a physical crew that gets movement at the point of attack. Establishing the run allows Minnesota to use play-action passes, allowing the line to provide better protection for QB Kirk Cousins.
Jan 5, 2020; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; New Orleans Saints outside linebacker Demario Davis (56) tackles Minnesota Vikings running back Dalvin Cook (33) during the second quarter of a NFC Wild Card playoff football game at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Derick Hingle-USA TODAY
The Saints need to prove that their performance against the run the last two weeks is more of an anomaly than a trend. They need to win their battles along the line of scrimmage and get penetration into the Minnesota backfield. That will also allow Demario Davis an open path to Cook, setting up a key one-on-one matchup.
New Orleans has been one of the NFL's best run defenses for the last three seasons. Their ability to return to that form on Friday will probably be the difference between an NFC South title or a three-game losing streak for Christmas.
